Well, hello.

Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇

Words: Sam Parry

The top lines from today’s update reflect how, at a time when the only thing that matters is points, EFL teams are finding ever more intriguing ways to collect, or drop them.

Championship

#1 Poor Old Boro

If you’re going through Hellberg, keep going.

That would seem sensible advice given the ridiculous numbers Boro are posting right now. Their xGD over the last 5 games is a whopping 1.68 per 90, their xG is over 2.50, their xGA under 1.00 and their results? Considering their dominance in games, that’s the maddest of the lot: 3 points (D3 L2).

To understand that underperformance, we need to break the surface. Boro took 126 shots in those five games, 48 of them (~39%) were blocked, ~25% came from outside the box, ~20% were on target, and 4 (or 1 in 31 shots) were goals.

The tip of—or perhaps for—the Hellberg? His side might benefit from a touch more patience in front of goal. To put it in cricketing terms, it feels like they’re suffering a bit of scoreboard pressure and, maybe, trying too hard to force the issue.

#2 Relegation battlers look good in the 5-game tables

Oh, hello there, West Brom, Leicester and Oxford.

Yes, the teams in 23rd, 22nd and 20th have put in a decent shift over their clutch of fixtures. Points-wise, Foxes have 6 from 5, Yellows have 6 from 5, Baggies have 9 from 5. And clearly West Brom are the standout over the longer term.

What’s interesting is that these 5 games represent a clear spike for both Leicester (a big improvement in their xGA) and Oxford (a big improvement in their xG). They’ll need to sustain something like this over the final five games. And blow me down, what an opportunity for both to make ground this weekend: West Brom (20th) play Millwall (4th) and Portsmouth (21st) play Boro (3rd).

League One

#3 You climbed on the ladder, and you know how it feels…

#4 Play-off contenders

It would be an understatement to suggest there are plenty of permutations left in the League One play-off race. Suffice it to say that one of five teams could be in 6th come the end of the weekend (and one of them is Stockport, who could drop a place with a GD swing, and one of them isn’t Luton, who are competing in the Hatters Derby at Wembley in Sunday’s Football League Trophy Final).

The teams I’d like to flag today for all the wrong reasons are Reading and Huddersfield, who, over 5- and 10-game form guides, are floating around the 45% mark for xG share. Over 10, the Royals are travelling at 1.50 PPG and the Terriers at 1.20 PPG. Both look vulnerable in the hunt for the 6th.

On the other side of that coin are Stevenage and Argyle. The form teams after Lincoln per points and underlying numbers. The former has more road to run on, but the way is cobbled with Bolton, Bradford and Lincoln back-to-back-to-back. The latter has less road but a smoother path, although a Devon derby this weekend could be a bump.

If neither travel well, who’s to say Luton, with 13 points from their last 5 games (W4 D1) won’t provide a late dash.

League Two

#5 Is the League Two leaders’ lead too big?

The Ravens haven’t left the tower just yet. One last flap (by which I mean a win) and the Woodman wings should carry Bromley into League One. As Champions? Probs.

It’s funny that they’ve found themselves in the most commanding position of the season off the back of their most difficult spell. With Michael Cheek out injured and their attacking game not quite so sparkling, Bromley’s defence has kept them in games, and then they’ve found just enough to win. Let the record show that despite a declining share of xG, Andy Woodman’s side have INCREASED THE GAP on 2nd, 3rd, and 4th over the last ten, going at a rate of 1.90 PPG. Mark of Champions?

The 7-point lead is surely too big to catch. But with MK Dons, Cambridge and Salford back-to-back-to-back, the fixtures are configured in such a way that this could get interesting.

#6 Tranmere are like Owls

And finally, the Owls serve as an example of what happens when a team is so significantly short of quality that they genuinely cannot compete to stay in the division. One metric that captures Wednesday’s on-pitch issues is xG share, which has dipped below 30% all season.

We’re now at a stage where Tranmere in League Two are playing at a level that reflects a side that simply cannot compete at that level. Let’s face it. That’s been going on longer than the 10-game window in our form tables - they’re averaging 0.50 PPG over their last 20 games. If the slide continues, do they already have enough points on the board? It’s going to be very, very tight.

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Well, hello.

Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇

Words: Sam Parry

“Look fourth!”

Someone important said it in a Psalm. And I don’t know about you, but with leagues like these, I’m inclined to follow the instructions. Where else would you look, but the fourth tier?

Here’s a league where every top-half club except Bromley is, at most, three points away from an entirely different situation – automatics to play-offs, play-offs to automatics, play-offs to nada, and nada to play-offs.

It deserves some special treatment. So, using the same hulking spreadsheet as The Pinsticker’s Guide to the League Two Run-in, I have placed the latest xG figures, PPG form and remaining fixtures into the hopper and cranked the handle. Here is what the machine has spat out, ordered by final predicted position and presented with a bit of context.

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🔗 League Two

Bromley

• PPG: 1.98
• Fixtures: 6 (3H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.52
• Points projection: 90.4
• Position: 1st (-)

In a league more finely poised than a hot iron skating over very thin ice, our model reckons that the team who won’t budge is Bromley. That makes a lot of sense: they have the points on the board.

They did, however, just lose to Barrow. Their 10-game xG ratio paints a picture of incredibly even games. Andy Woodman’s side have won their share of those over the course of the season, but they are somewhat clinging to top spot rather than sprinting for the finish line.

MK Dons

• PPG: 1.85
• Fixtures: 6 (3H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.44
• Points projection: 85.1
• Position: 2nd (-)

MK vs Bromley, 11th April.

There’s a huge fixture to come; one that suggests there are still chances to make big inroads in the title race. The spreadsheet gives MK the best chance of doing that. They have the best xG ratio in the league over the last 10 games (68.8%) and the second-most points (20), after Oldham (25).

Cambridge

• PPG: 1.85
• Fixtures: 7 (4H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.59
• Points projection: 84.8
• Position: 3rd (+1)

Three little words: “Game In Hand”. And a few more: “Including one against Bromley”.

Cambridge (4th) have the best expected goals against (xGA) figure in the league, as one of only two teams averaging less than 1.00 xGA per game. Give it a name: DE-fence. That’s what their promotion credentials are founded upon, and that’s why their game in hand matters: the spreadsheet reckons they’re more likely than not to take points from it, despite the fact that the run-in is pretty tough.

Their list of fixtures goes like this: 5th, 18th, 3rd, 1st, 8th, 23rd. It’s very hard to tell who has what in their hands.

Notts County

• PPG: 1.83
• Fixtures: 6 (3H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.53
• Points projection: 83.2
• Position: 4th (-1)

The other team averaging less than 1.00 xGA per game are the Magpies. Their issue, per the spreadsheet model, is four little words: “No games in hand”.

That said, there are plenty of reasons to back them to hold on to a top-3 position. Only MK Dons and Oldham can beat their PPG of 1.90 over the last 10 games. Alassana Jatta is in fine form, and then there’s the little matter of a game away to Cambridge on the 11th of April – yep, the same day as MK Dons v Bromley. Mouthwatering.

Salford

• PPG: 1.75
• Fixtures: 6 (3H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.53
• Points projection: 80.1
• Position: 5th (+1)

While the spreadsheet doesn’t predict a flying finish for Salford, there’s plenty to say in mitigation. And when I say mitigation, I mean for the spreadsheet, which cannot predict hot and cold streaks.

Are Salford cooking? They just beat MK Dons.

Are they cooked? They recently lost to Cambridge.

Will they be cooking? They face 3rd and 7th in back-to-back games.

Will they be cooked? I repeat: They face 3rd and 7th in back-to-back games.

Karl Robinson’s side is chock-full of quality, no doubt. They also have a negative xG share over the last 5 fixtures (49%) and only a shade of positive over 10 (51%). It’s extremely difficult to gauge their level over the run-in. The formula, though, has them moving forwards rather than back – just not all the way.

Swindon

• PPG: 1.75
• Fixtures: 6 (3H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.65
• Points projection: 79.6
• Position: 6th (-1)

A faller – and might it get worse?

Swindon’s position is rather like Bromley’s, but minus 9 points. Their PPG over the last 10 is 1.50, which is a mid-table range in League Two. They are tripping over the line, not sprinting towards it.

Given they are 7 points clear of 7th place, Swindon should have the points on the board to clear the dotted line designating the play-off places. What lies beneath, however, are a clutch of serious teams, some with a serious number of games in hand.

Most notably…

Grimsby

• PPG: 1.63
• Fixtures: 8 (3H / 5A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.39
• Points projection: 75.0
• Position: 7th (+1)

Some teams have closer to 10% of a season left to play. Grimsby have closer to 20%, albeit skewing heavily away from home. The model has them jumping into the final play-off spot, and no doubt that comes down to their game(s) in hand on opponents – one over some, two over others.

Not only that, though: Dave Artell’s side have consistently posted outstanding xG numbers. If it wasn’t for a rough patch around Christmas, Grimsby might be troubling the top spots, not just the play-offs.

Oldham

• PPG: 1.56
• Fixtures: 7 (3H / 4A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.27
• Points projection: 73.6
• Position: 8th (+2)

Just missing out, but not by much, are Oldham.

They are flying. They have a game in hand on most. They have picked up 25 points from a possible 30. They have the second-best xG share over the last 10 games (64.1%). They have one of the easiest run-ins. They are talking me into the idea that they are going to beat the model and make it into the play-offs.

A word of caution? Micky Mellon’s side probably can’t maintain a 2.50 PPG record over their last 7. It would mean dropping points in only one match. But if they did…

Chesterfield

• PPG: 1.59
• Fixtures: 7 (4H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.26
• Points projection: 73.5
• Position: 9th (=)

With only Grimsby and Crewe to play from the top 7, Chesterfield have the easiest run-in on paper. It’s not enough, per the spreadsheet, to claw their way into a top-7 spot. But there are plenty of positive signs about the Spireites.

They top the xG charts over 10 games (1.93), and those games have averaged an xG total of 3.04. If a Swindon or a Salford were to hit a fence in the closing straight, Chesterfield could be right amongst it. They’ll need to clock something like 2.00 PPG over their last 7, though.

Crewe

• PPG: 1.58
• Fixtures: 6 (3H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.59
• Points projection: 73.0
• Position: 10th (-3)

They keep defying the odds. They keep defying what is good and holy. Our spreadsheet has them as the biggest fallers, and their last game, a 2-1 win over Oldham, explains it in a nutshell — it took two out-of-the-box worldies to win.

But win they did. So, why is the model marking them down? Let me explain with a quiz. Below is the xG ratio over 5-, 10-, and Season-Long time frames for the teams ranked 7th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, and 24th in the table. They are not listed in position order. Tell me: which one is Crewe?*

Barnet

• PPG: 1.50
• Fixtures: 6 (3H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.28
• Points projection: 69.3
• Position: 11th (+1)

Sweet, fair Barnet.

Rising but not quite enough. Short on games, short on time, but not short on quality, Dean Brennan’s side look likely to fall into the category of the “What If?” season. They have been comfortably within the best teams per the xG tables all season long… until recently. Ouch.

🔵 Walsall

• PPG: 1.53
• Fixtures: 6 (3H / 3A)
• Remaining opponents PPG: 1.27
• Points projection: 69.1
• Position: 12th (-1)

And finally, Walsall.

Never write them off.

*Crewe are in the middle of that table.

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Well, hello.

Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇

Words: Sam Parry

Two types of ‘false’ position…

The term can be either a sugary bit of flattery or a cold, cynical snipe. Hands up: I recognise that picking out false positions based on data alone offers an incomplete picture of what a football team is. And yet, like eating the last roast potato without offering it around first, it’s a sport I take great pleasure in.

This is a bit of fun, not damnation, nor eternal life. I’m going to present teams from each league whose underlying numbers contradict their league position, plus a few honourable mentions.

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🔗 Championship

West Bromwich Albion

Over the course of the season, with the exception of Eric Ramsay’s short spell, West Brom’s numbers have been pretty consistent. The data paints a clear picture of their strengths and weaknesses: a) solid defence, b) tight games, c) don’t carve out a barrel load of chances.

Across the campaign, their matches rank as the second-lowest for Total xG (xG + xGA). They have the fourth-lowest xGA. And, given their bang-average xG, that leaves them with the 8th-best expected goal difference. Not bad. Certainly not 20th.

That was the case before Ramsay, and while there are differences between Ryan Mason and James Morrison, results have recently begun to align with that profile again.

With just one defeat in five and two wins on the bounce, they are not just reverting to type but improving upon it. For the most part, this hasn’t come against forgiving opposition, either: Oxford (L), Sheffield United (D), Southampton (D), Hull (W), Bristol City (W).

Morrison and his side may well have preferred a few more matches before the international break arrived.

Honourable mention for Hull

All season, the underlying numbers have depicted Hull as a side with far blunter claws than results suggest. Their matches generate the highest xG total in the league, at 3.09, and across the season they have split that 43% to 57% with their opponents, while averaging 1.69 PPG.

Interestingly, their share of chances has improved over the last five games, and that has brought… six points for 1.20 PPG (and one of their opponents was Sheffield Wednesday).

🔗 League One

Reading

It ain’t outrageous to see Reading in 8th. Of all the false positions, this is not the wildest.

However, when a team consistently gives up more chances than they create, that should ring alarm bells.

For Reading, that alarm has been snoozed. Over the last ten games they are around five percentage points down on their season xG share, and around seven points down over the last five.

The vibes around Leam Richardson since his appointment have not been particularly warm, and after registering no second-half shots against Stevenage on Saturday, sustaining a play-off push looks – from a performance POV – a bit of a stretch. That said, they only have the top two left to play, with the rest of their fixtures coming against sides outside the play-off places.

Honourable mention for Barnsley

A team in 13th can hardly be in a false position. The margins are fine and Barnsley are not extreme outliers. But they are worth flagging due to the impact of David McGoldrick (flying high) and Davis Keillor-Dunn (resting easy on the Wrexham bench), who have combined for 46% of their goals this season.

Given their rankings across these 5 key metrics, per Not The Top Tables, can you imagine what might be the case if they didn’t have Didzy?

• 15th - xG

• 19th - xGA

• 19th - xG share

• 20th - xGD

• 5th-highest xG Total

🔗 League Two

Barnet, Oldham, Colchester

The League Two table is telling a few porkies. With so little separating teams in the top half, that is no surprise.

With 7/8/9 matches to go, fixture difficulty becomes more important as the games run out, and different teams have very different paths ahead. For that reason, Barnet, Oldham and Colchester don’t necessarily occupy false positions, but perhaps what-might-have-been positions.

Across the season, all three sit well (and rather similarly) when it comes to their share of expected goals. What is their share of REAL GOALS? Oldham have 58.7%, Colchester 54.9% and Barnet 53.3%.

All of that augurs well. But the reality is that all three teams have had patches of average-to-poor results. Still, of the teams placed 4th to 10th, only Grimsby and Notts County have a better season-long xG share. All three suppress chances better than sides like Chesterfield, and all three create more than sides like Notts County.

For Colchester, down in 14th, it is very much a case of shoulda woulda coulda. For Barnet and particularly Oldham, who are hitting their best form, it may still be a case of shoulda woulda… could be?

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WELL, GOODBYE!

Well, hello.

Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇

Words: Sam Parry

Awards season is over, but the judgement never stops. Looking at you, new managers of the EFL.

Of course, it is not always sensible to judge a manager purely on a short run of games. That said, when a new manager arrives in March, it is usually because the higher-ups, and often the fans, believe the previous regime was falling short and thus, that the new guy can or should deliver better.

Today’s missive is less about the managers themselves and more about the decision to sack and to hire. The key question is simple: are the new managers having the desired effect?

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🔗 Championship

Watford — Ed Still

• Record: P6 W2 D2 L2 (PPG 1.33)

• Season PPG: 1.41 (🔻 -0.08)

Watford skew the framing slightly. It’s hard to define a “desired effect” at a club that changes managers so frequently. The drop in PPG is marginal and the sample’s small.

There is, however, a modest improvement in chance creation. Watford are averaging 1.6 xG per 90 over the last five compared to 1.30 across the season. The issue’s familiar. If you don’t convert those chances, the gains don’t translate into results.

Leicester City — Gary Rowett

• Record: P6 W1 D3 L2 (PPG 1.00)

• Season PPG: 1.16 (🔻 -0.16)

The Rowett Defence. It goes something like this: he’s a manager with deep knowledge of the Championship and experience of the situation (a relegation fight). That’s exactly how the Foxes chairman put it.

So far, the Rowett defence (lowercase) hasn’t held up. Nine goals conceded in six games is problematic enough, but paired with an attack generating just 0.64 xG per game, it becomes unsustainable. It also raises a broader question about fit. This squad’s built around attacking players who should be producing more.

Blackburn Rovers — Michael O’Neill

• Record: P7 W3 D1 L3 (PPG 1.43)

• Season PPG: 1.11 (🟢 +0.32)

A more positive picture here. O’Neill’s delivered an uplift in both results and performances.

How his time is split between Blackburn and Northern Ireland over the next few weeks remains unclear, but the early signs are encouraging. This is the desired effect, at least in the short term, is being rendered in points and performances.

🔗 League One

Wigan Athletic — Gary Caldwell

• Record: P6 W3 D1 L2 (PPG 1.67)

• Season PPG: 1.14 (🔥 +0.53)

Wigan needed points quickly after a sharp decline. Caldwell’s delivered that. (So far).

However, the underlying numbers are less emphatic. Wigan’s xG share shows only slight improvement, suggesting results may be running ahead of process — “may” being the key word there.

Context matters. The fixture list’s been tough: Luton, Stockport, Huddersfield, Blackpool, Plymouth Argyle and Bradford represent 5 proper play-off contenders. For now, that tempers the data slightly. A kinder run-in should give a clearer read.

Huddersfield Town — Liam Manning

• Record: P10 W5 D2 L3 (PPG 1.70)

• Season PPG: 1.51 (🟢 +0.19)

A more nuanced case. Three wins at the start were followed by a slower run, but the defensive improvement is clear.

Over the last five games, Huddersfield’s xGA is 0.67 per 90, second only to Bradford. Across ten games, they rank fourth in the league by the same metric. That’s a tangible step forward.

What stands out is the drop in attacking output. Their xG sits at 0.96 over five games and 0.94 over ten. This is process. It is deliberate rather than incidental. It’s simply what Manning does.

The result is low margin football. The xG Total in their games is 1.63 over five games and 1.76 over ten, both the lowest in the division. Fine margins will define outcomes, and how that style’s received over time is worth monitoring.

🔗 League Two

Fleetwood Town — Matt Lawlor

• Record: P11 W4 D5 L2 (PPG 1.55)

• Season PPG: 1.38 (🟢 +0.17)

Rumours have it that Fleetwood Matt’s underlying numbers as a new boss are pretty solid. Maybe that played into the owner’s thinking in handing Lawlor the permanent post?

Across both the five- and ten-game tables, they profile as a play-off-level side. Defensively, there’s been a slight improvement, though the fixture run’s been relatively kind.

Now, Lawlor’s achieved the primary objective of securing safety early and giving supporters a bit of a lift. But the next question is whether this level can be sustained against stronger opposition, or whether performance reverts closer to the season baseline; and more to the point, whether that makes the transition from interim into permanent manager a smart call or not.

Shrewsbury Town — Gavin Cowan

• Record: P10 W6 D1 L3 (PPG 1.90)

• Season PPG: 1.11 (🔥 +0.79)

Clearly, Cowan’s had the most dramatic impact of the group. Shrewsbury, who were tanking, are hitting promotion-level form right now.

Interestingly, their underlying numbers tell a slightly different story. Compared to Fleetwood, who have a similar xG Total over ten games, Shrewsbury’s results appear more volatile.

If you’re a fan, you don’t care one jot. The task was survival, and Cowan has accelerated them away from a scrap in the foothills of the pyramid and towards a well-earned bit of R&R on the beach.

Worth pointing out though that goalkeeper Matthew Cox has been busy, and while Shrews are a sharper, slicker and more confident attacking side, the defensive numbers still flash a warning. There’s a summer to tidy that up.

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WELL, GOODBYE!

Well, hello.

Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇

On Oscars week, it would be rude not to peek at the nominees.

Words: Sam Parry

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🔗 Championship

🎬 BEST PICTURE: Top 6 variance

What’s in the envelope, Moonlight or La La Land? Results or performance?

The current top six is a fun example of how variance manifests itself over small samples, where results often drift away from the underlying performance level.

When Coventry went on a poor run it was evident by eye-test, points and underlying numbers that they were performing worse. Their level, per the shot data, hasn’t suddenly leapt back up to pre-Christmas levels of dominance. But they’ve just won 5 out of 5.

Similar with Ipswich: their underlying numbers have dipped slightly, but they’re tracking at 2.00 PPG over the last five games.

Spare a thought for Middlesbrough, who, despite posting a stronger xG share in recent games, have dipped below their expected points haul with 8 from 5 (1.6 PPG), relinquishing top spot in that time.

Then come Millwall: numbers look better, performances look better, points are better. Wrexham didn’t play at the weekend but, like Millwall, they’re showing that improved performances can generate improved results, and sometimes it really is that simple.

And then Hull, who haven’t really deviated all season. But the low share of expected goals that has them averaging 1.67 PPG through the season has them running at just 1.2 PPG over the last five matches, which is more like an 18th-place return.

Playing well and getting results across a season is one thing. But over short stretches, results can move in the opposite direction to performance. That gap between performance and outcomes is variance.

🔔 BEST SOUND: QPR

“There are enough points on the board.”

That’s the positive noise for Queens Park Rangers because, performance-wise and results-wise, things are going awry. OK, their last two losses were to good teams (4-0 to Boro and 2-0 to Sheffield United), but performances over 5- and 10-game spells are dropping from an even share of xG to something much less even.

The aggregate score over their last 5 games is Opponents 15-4 QPR. They may be one of the beachiest teams in the EFL, given that their tally of 47 points puts them closer to the play-offs (10-point gap) than the relegation zone (12-point gap), but they will have to get another result at some point to see it home.

🔗 League One

🔍 BEST CASTING: Barnsley

Over the last 5 games, David McGoldrick has scored 5 (of 7) Barnsley goals from a total xG of 2.45. It’s a role he was born to play, and Tykes fans must be glad that he is.

Conor Hourihane’s side have 9 points from 5. Huge kudos to Didzy in that run because, without him, Barnsley’s inability to create heaps of good chances, and their record for allowing plenty of chances to the opposition, would likely show up more clearly in the results.

It’s crackers but, with the mercurial heft in the XI, you couldn’t rule out a late play-off charge. After tonight’s fixture against Cardiff, Barnsley face Mansfield, Wigan, Doncaster, Northampton and Burton in a row.

🔢 BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Bolton

Wahey. Bolton’s 3-2 win over Wycombe on Saturday represented the latest in an EFL match that a team has been two goals down and still won, thanks to a trio of strikes in the 88th, 91st and 95th minutes. How’s it all going for the team that has long led the xG standings in League One?

Over 5 unbeaten games (W2 D3), Bolton have averaged 1.53 xGA, which is a huge downgrade on their season average of 0.91. With Rotherham, Doncaster and Port Vale up next, though, you’d think that would correct itself.

Why are Bolton leading the xG tables but not the table itself? Well, they have created the second-most big chances in the league but missed 70% of them. That probably has something to do with it.

🔗 League Two

🎭 BEST ACTOR: Oldham

The boys can play two roles: dominator and dominated.

Oldham have taken advantage of four favourable fixtures (Tranmere, Crawley, Bristol Rovers and Gillingham) and one tough one (Bromley), delivering W4 D1. In those games they’ve created the lion’s share of chances, as seen in the 5-game xG share column here.

But their 10-game xG share falls away due to their having played games against four sides above them – Swindon, Cambridge, Barnet and Chesterfield – and one below, in Cheltenham, taking 4 points from those 5 fixtures. It may be a good indicator that any thoughts of an Oldham assault on the play-offs are too heavily based on the fixture list.

Still, they immediately have an opportunity to test that theory. Top-10 occupants Grimsby, Chesterfield, Notts County and Crewe make up four of their next five opponents, followed by Colchester and MK Dons on Easter weekend.

🍓THE RASPBERRY: Tranmere

It’s quite an achievement to post numbers this bad, even over a relatively small sample of five games.

Tranmere have lost five games in a row, giving up chances worth 2.06 xGA per 90. Equally shocking is their inability to create anything. They’ve fashioned 10 shots on target in their last 5 games.

They’ve now conceded the most goals in League Two and will be incredibly grateful that they have 36 points already, as another win or two should be enough for safety. Having sacked Andy Crosby because it all went Pete Tong, they’ve just hired Pete Wild. We’ll keep an eye on how that goes.

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WELL, GOODBYE!

Well, hello.

Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇

I spy, with my little eye, something beginning with “Cardiff v Lincoln”…

Words: Sam Parry

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🔗 Championship

🔴 EATING: Southampton

By Eckert! Saints have taken an unholy bite out of the xG total over their last 5 games.

They’ve won four and drawn one in that time against Watford (1-0), Leicester (4-3), Charlton (1-1), QPR (5-0) and Sheffield Wednesday (3-1). A kind set of fixtures?

Yes, rather kind. But the 61.8% xG ratio over 10 games is also a small but not insignificant improvement on their season-long numbers (58.0%), which are themselves the fourth-best in the division. The next great hope for a 6th-place finish is primed and ready.

⚖️ HUNGRY (FOR JUSTICE): Portsmouth

With a league-best xG ratio over the last 10 games (68%) underpinned by superlative defensive numbers (0.68 xGA per 90), poor old Pompey might’ve expected better than a 14-point return from their last 10 fixtures.

In their previous two home games, they’ve lost by a single goal while posting an xG of 2.37 vs 1.46 against Sheffield United (0-1) and 1.05 vs 0.34 against Hull (0-1).

Still, the performances are miles clear of those teams beneath them, as is the 1.40 PPG over their last 10. The pomp is there – is the survival ceremony a formality?

🚜 HOW GOOD IS WHEELY GOOD?: Ipswich

The wheels are very much ratcheted onto the Tractor Boys’ machine. Kieran McKenna’s side are ploughing through the Championship field at a rate of 2.00+ PPG over 5-game and 10-game samples.

Funny, though, that recent results are trending above their season average (1.82 PPG), while performances (xG) are trending below. In four of their last five matches, Ipswich have given up chances to the opposition amounting to 1.00+ xG. Might there be a poorer points yield to come?

🔗 League One

📈 EATING: Stevenage

It may appear a meagre morsel, but Stevenage are biting back after a period of indifferent results and fairly bad underlying numbers.

They were never the league’s big chance creators, so you have to hand it to Alex Revell for mid-season problem solving. His side have an average xG per 90 of 0.97 over the course of the season, but over 10 games it’s 1.26, and over 5 it’s 1.44.

🆚 Head of the table: Cardiff (1st) v Lincoln (2nd)

Synchronise watches. Cardiff vs Lincoln is happening at 12:30pm on Saturday. The biggest game of the season so far? It could be.

These two (mostly) unstoppable stars have been hurtling through the campaign at a meteoric rate. That said, if you put your eye to the telescope – or, in our case, the microscope – then it’s clear to see that one ascent has begun to move quicker.

Over five games, both clubs are edging toward xG totals of 3.00 per 90, but as you can see above, Lincoln’s share of the xG is more than 20% higher than Cardiff’s. Teams are scoring freely, but the Imps are giving up very little. The results of those games?

• Lincoln City: W 4, D 1, L 0, GF 15, GA 2, Pts 13

• Cardiff City: W 4, D 0, L 1, GF 16, GA 7, Pts 12

How about over 10 games?

Both sides are wrestling for a similar xG total. But once again, Michael Skubala’s side show a clear point of difference in the number of chances they give away: very few. And that’s shown a little more starkly in results/goals over the last 10.

• Lincoln City: W 8, D 2, L 0, GF 28, GA 7, Pts 26

• Cardiff City: W 6, D 3, L 1, GF 26, GA 12, Pts 21

You could barely fit a rizla between the pair’s season-long underlying numbers, but seasons don’t move at a single pace. We are where we are. And if there’s one through-line that should be heeded ahead of this tantalising tie, it would have to be Cardiff’s consistent record of giving up chances to their opponents at a greater rate than Lincoln, all season long.

Maybe that’s why our supercomputer recently predicted Lincoln to win the league…

🔗 League Two

⏫ EATING: Fleetwood

After Pete Wild’s departure, Matt Lawlor was handed the Fleetwood reins until the end of the season. With 11 points from seven games (W3 D2 L2), we’re starting to see a bit more of The Law – but what about the order?

In their last five games, Fleetwood have an xGA per 90 of 0.65, which is almost half that of their season-long xGA of 1.28. Positive signs – although if I were up in front of the judge as an expert witness, I would have to point out that fixtures against the languishing pair of Newport (0-0) and Barrow (3-2) are making it all a bit noisy, so help me Cod.

Speaking of which…

🔻HUNGRY: Fail fast at the bottom

Per our comparison tables, there isn’t a huge sign of improvement about the bottom two teams, Harrogate and Newport. If they are to pull off an escape, it will probably have less to do with their improvements and more to do with those around them failing and falling faster.

While Accrington have enough points on the board to start dusting off their beach towels, Crawley and Tranmere are showing signs that the floor is coming up to meet them.

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There’s a real feast to tuck into ahead of a mouth-watering mid-week slate.

Words: Sam Parry

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🔗 Championship

🦖 EATING: Wrexham

Tough for a T-Rex to sneak into a conversation, but in a way it feels that’s exactly what Wrexham have done. Not the conversation about their promotion chances — that’s been loud for months. But the quieter chats we tend to have around these parts about underlying numbers.

Over the season, Wrexham’s profile is quietly robust. However, their rolling xG ratio over the last 10 games shows a side with teeth, or claws, or something sharp. Their xG is up, their xGD is up, their xGA is down, their xG total is down. They are doing better in both boxes and that tells in dominant spell on the pitch and in the numbers.

❓HUNGRY: The Bottom 5 Quiz

Question: How many of the current bottom five have a (relatively) new manager?

Answer: Four out of five.

Which makes the recent xG picture especially interesting, with all the usual sample-size caveats attached.

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Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇

This week we’re focusing on relegation candidates.

Words: Sam Parry

The way teams are feeding on the relegation scraps look wildly different depending on the division. In the Championship, almost everyone down there has a pulse — six of the bottom seven have enough quality to mount something of a run. League One is pure chaos, where the maths changes by the week. And in League Two, those fighting relegation are so much poorer than the rest of the league, writing off the current bottom clubs already feels premature.

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🔗 Championship

Let’s start with the three relegation spots and the seven most likely candidates.

There are five teams entering the final third of the season with less than a point per game over their last ten matches: Sheffield Wednesday (0.1), West Brom (0.6), Leicester (0.7), Oxford (0.9) and Blackburn (0.9). Give ‘em a name: The Likely Lads.

Of the Likely Lads, the Owls already look gone. Of the remaining four, only West Brom have a positive 10-game xG Ratio at 53.2 percent. However, over the last five games under Eric Ramsay, who is yet to win, that figure drops to 41.7 percent. Ouch.

It has been clear all season that Oxford are struggling and, as alluded to in George’s excellent piece last week, relegation feels built into their structural reality. Survival is unlikely to be predicted by the numbers but variance could show in results.

Per the comparison table above, things look rough for Leicester. Their xGA has been climbing steadily across the season and the recent fixtures do not soften the picture. Wrexham (D), Oxford (L), Charlton (L), Birmingham (L) and Saints, where a 3-0 lead still ended in defeat, suggest the issue runs deeper than opposition strength.

Blackburn are harder to read. They have beaten QPR and Sheffield Wednesday in two of their last three. For much of the season their underlying numbers were solid before injuries pulled them into a rut. With three of the top ten up next and Michael O’Neill now in place, they are worth monitoring closely.

Of course, what becomes of the Likely Lads will swing on small pockets of results. Nobody understands that better than Portsmouth. Even in their 1-0 defeat to Sheffield United, the performance showed they are limiting chances and creating at a higher level than the rest. With 15 games left, their finishing remains the big question.

That leaves Norwich and Charlton. Both have put together useful runs. Tweaks to system and style has elevated Norwich to around the level they should’ve been all season. Maybe it’s a little noisy, but when no Championship side has more than their 21 points from the last ten games, you have to say they look well placed for survival.

Charlton are more concerning. Nathan Jones’ side have the second worst season-long xG Ratio in the division. Having only lost four times at home, it’s clear their season hinges on games at the Valley.

🚨 HUGE FOR BOTH KLAXON:

• Portsmouth vs Charlton (tonight)

🔗 League One

With a densely packed bottom end, our xG tables should indicate which teams have a process worth trusting and which are simply sinking.

Let’s call them The Eight Watchers.

Going at under 1.00 PPG across the last ten are Burton (0.8), Port Vale (0.8), Leyton Orient (0.8), Northampton (0.7), Rotherham (0.7) and Wigan (0.5).

Port Vale’s climb looks too steep. The departure of Darren Moore has not tightened them defensively and they’re left with hope and a song.

Wigan are, as Tom Petty sang, Free Fallin’. The arrival of Gary Caldwell offers a pause for breath, but with 8th, 4th and 6th next, the runway is short. There is a strange sliver of hope in how poor their numbers have become. They were not always this bad. Regression alone should lift them slightly. The question is whether that lift is sufficient.

Are there signs of improvement at Blackpool despite results? It looks that way in the numbers. They won the manageable game in a difficult recent run and although Lincoln and Bolton away await, four of the Eight Watchers feature in their next ten. Their season-long attacking output has tracked below 1.00 xG per game, so modest improvement over the last five and ten is encouraging, even if it is not yet convincing. What impact will their 0-4 home defeat to Argyle have on confidence, buy-in and performances?

We covered marginal improvements for Doncaster and Rotherham last week so will not revisit them in detail. Both are trending upward per our tables.

Leyton Orient are eyebrow-raising. They were prolific earlier in the season and remain the highest scorers among the Eight Watchers across the full campaign. But they have scored more than once in only two of the last ten. The hot streak for finishing appears to have cooled and the underlying numbers are now more clearly represented in their form: P10 W2 D4 L4.

Northampton and Burton are steady in a less comforting way. Across all three tables, neither deviates meaningfully from their season average. They simply tend to concede better chances than they create. Not a model for success.

🚨 HUGE FOR BOTH KLAXON:

• Burton vs Rotherham (tonight)

• Rotherham vs Doncaster (Saturday)

• Northampton vs Leyton Orient (Saturday)

🔗 League Two

Finally, in the fourth tier, six does not divide neatly into two. Let’s call those two The Immovable Objects.

Under 1.00 PPG over the last ten are Bristol Rovers (0.9), Newport (0.8), Crawley (0.7), Barrow (0.6) and Harrogate (0.5). Shrewsbury sit alone at exactly 1.00.

None are collecting points consistently, so the opportunity exists for one to surge clear. Realistically though, Harrogate and Newport may require help from above rather than relying solely on their own momentum.

Season-long xG Ratio places them 23rd and 22nd in the division (Cheltenham are actually bottom). Newport have dipped below their average in recent weeks and have lost five straight away games. At home they are W2 D2 L1 with an xG Ratio of 50 percent, averaging 1.10 xG for and 1.10 xGA. Hey, that looks like a bit of a route out? (And yes: we’re looking at adding Home/Away tables for next season).

Harrogate’s slight five-game uptick reflects a win over Cambridge and a draw with Chesterfield. They look marginally sturdier defensively. Given their inability to create and score on a consistent basis, that’s their route. For both clubs, those marginal gains could be enough if those above falter.

Despite beating Swindon impressively, Shrewsbury’s underlying numbers remain poor. They average 0.66 xG over five games, 0.74 over ten and 0.86 across the season.

Barrow may be the side most at risk. Their games are open (they average 2.5+ xG total per 90) and half of their remaining fixtures are against top-half teams chasing the play-offs. Dino Maamria’s in-tray is simple: tighten up, battle hard.

Steve Evans has added quality to Bristol Rovers but their season average xGA of 1.46 has not shifted meaningfully. Crawley, currently 23rd, face an unforgiving next six including 5th, 8th, 16th, 3rd, 12th, 11th.

If results above them wobble, one of the Immovable Objects could build momentum of their own. Newport’s home form in particular should concern those immediately ahead for whom complacency could cost them a place in the professional football pyramid.

🚨 HUGE FOR BOTH KLAXON:

• Barrow vs Harrogate (tonight)

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For today’s data snack, we focus on a few fun head-to-heads…

Words: Sam Parry

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🔗 Championship

🔷 EATING: Birmingham

The “play-off chasing pack” has to end somewhere. Wherever you draw the line, Chris Davies’ side are above it.

Birmingham’s numbers are trending strongly and they look well placed for a push. In taking 11 points from 5 games (against Swansea, Sheffield Wednesday, Stoke, Oxford and Leicester), they’ve seized the chance to make hay during a kind run.

Across those five games, Blues posted a huge 72.9% share of the xG, the highest in the Championship over that span. Over the last 10, they rank 6th with a 58.4% share.

Sterner tests await. West Brom at home tonight is followed by trips to a resurgent Norwich and a resolute Millwall, before Birmingham welcome a resplendent Middlesbrough and then a Charlton side fighting for survival.

After a heap of eye-catching January signings that should raise their level, are Birmingham the biggest runner in the pack?

⛴️ STARVING (THE OPPOSITION): Portsmouth

Not far behind Birmingham over five games, not far at all, Pompey have laid siege on opposition goals while starving their last five opponents of chances.

John Mousinho’s side have posted a 72.0% xG share and allowed just 0.60 xG per 90 in that time. This feels like more than noise. Over the last 10 games, Pompey’s xGA of 0.75 per 90 is unmatched by any other side in the Championship. While their league position remains precarious, they look like a team ready to cruise out of trouble.

⭕ STARVING (NO REALLY THIS TIME): Preston

Oh Heck!

Preston’s four points from five games (0.8 points per game) and 12 points from 10 (1.20 ppg) mark a clear drop-off from their season-long output. They sit 7th with 47 points from 31 games, averaging 1.52 ppg.

It’s a dip that’s reflected in both the 5- and 10-match form tables. Their underlying numbers, particularly defensively, tell the story. An xGA of 1.47 over 10 games and 2.01 over five speaks to a worrying slide. Season-long numbers were never especially bright, and while no side is closer to sixth, the play-offs somehow feel more distant than they have all season.

🔗 League One

📈 EATING: Doncaster and Rotherham

No EFL landmass has a greater number of teams in need of revival than South Yorkshire this season. Blades, Owls, Rotherham, Donny – hell, even Barnsley are only five points above the relegation zone.

For Doncaster and Rotherham, that revival means getting their heads above the dotted line, and both are making a better fist of it lately.

Doncaster’s numbers have been consistent all season, but the last five have come with an extra kick. They have averaged a noisy but pleasing 2.04 xG per game across that spell, returning W3 L2. That is around +0.6 xG above their season average. With Elliot Lee added in January, that extra firepower could help convert more of those chances.

Rotherham’s improvement is even starker. Across the season, they hover around 1.06 xG per 90. Over the last five games, that rises to 1.68, and across 10 it sits at 1.39. A significant improvement.

Oh, and they’ll be able to pit those improvements against one another next week, on the 21st.

🥧 HUNGRY: Wigan

This is only our fifth missive on NTT20.COM’s form tables but regular readers will know that, in the wake of managerial sackings, I have often pointed to decent underlying numbers despite OK or poor results.

I am not going to make that case for Ryan Lowe, who departed Wigan after one point from five games, five points from 10, and numbers like these.

🥃 Limoncello? Shots? Yeah… shots: Stevenage

Scan the five-game xG form tables in League One and the eagle-eyed among you may spot the thumbprints of a gerrymanderer.

Last weekend, Stevenage had a wild 81st minute against Northampton. In the space of a few seconds, they took six shots with individual xG measured at 0.04, 0.19, 0.38, 0.71, 0.78 and 0.30. That adds up to an xG of 2.4. Two point four goals.

You are the ref analyst. What happened next?

Stevenage did not score. Even if they had, we felt that 2.4 xG for a sequence of six shots was excessive – you can, after all, score a maximum of one goal in one passage of play. So, we rounded down that passage to 0.99 xG when looking at the match as a whole. The overall total for Stevenage therefore stands at 1.85 xG.

Did we get that right? I think so.

🔗 League Two

🍫 GORGING: Notts County

Two flyers to finish, and it’s Notts County with top billing in League Two for the second week running.

They lead the league for xG ratio across both the last five and last 10 games, and their xG share in that time — 74.6% over 5 and 67.2% over 10 – is so greedy that, at this point, you have to wonder if a wafer-thin mint might explode something.

Hold up, though! There’s team on their shoulder in points and underlying numbers alike. In fact, you could argue they’re a nose, or a bellybutton, in front.

🤏 A WAFER-THIN MINT LESS THAN NOTTS: MK Dons

We’re in wafer-thin margin territory here. But MK arguably look like the pick of the pack and certainly, in comparison to Notts, the most wolflike. And that’s fun…

Who’d have thought MK under Warne would be the ravenous chance creators? Who’d have thought County would be the great cutter-outters of chances?

But it is MK who are carving out opportunity after opportunity, posting the highest xG across both five- and 10-game spells. County, by contrast, are starving opponents, recording the lowest xGA over the same periods.

Over the last 10 games, MK are averaging 2.10 points per game, with County just behind on 2.00. It’s Bromley v County at the weekend and MK, with a win, will make ground somewhere.

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Words: Sam Parry

“Events, dear boy, events” is what former Prime Minister Harold Macmillan said when asked what might blow a government off course….

🔗 Championship: events of fine margins

TRULY, MADLY: Pompey

“Events” applies just as neatly to football, with one key difference: teams usually have more control over the events themselves.

Which is why it’s cockle-warming to see Portsmouth getting a return on their investment in John Mousinho stock. After taking just five points from a 10-game spell late last year, events could easily have conspired against him.

Instead of a fire and hire, Pompey have picked up eight points from their last five games - and 16 from the last 10. A 63.8% xG Ratio over five games is a little noisy, inflated by the 3-0 win over West Brom (2.57 xG to 0.09). But they’ve earned the right to a bit of noise.

January additions have played their part too. Sometimes those are the events a team needs (see: Ebou Adams, Millenic Alli).

🤏 MADLY, DEEPLY, VARIANCE: QPR + Oxford

Over the last five games, QPR (8 points) and Oxford (5) have been operating on the finest of margins — though variance has treated them a little differently.

Oxford have taken 44 shots to their opponents’ 63 in that spell, yet still posted a positive share of the total xG. The underlying numbers have improved, but their PPG is about the same as it’s been all season.

QPR’s story is slightly different. They’ve outshot opponents 62 to 45, including conceding just nine shots against Coventry, and also hold a positive xG share. That’s translated into eight points, a 1.6 PPG return that tops their season average of 1.43.

As one of the Championship’s most consistent “low-margin” teams (their season-long xG total is 2.29 per game, with a 51.6% share), QPR’s uptick looks less like a stylistic shift and more like variance dealing its hand.

🔗 League One

🎲 EATING: Don Don Donnnnnncaster Rovers

Doncaster have been an outlier all season, struggling to score good chances while gifting cheap goals at the other end. Their horrendous run of 6 points from 16 games between 12 September and 31 December is another case of dicey form being met without a dice roll.

Over the last five games, only Argyle and Bolton boast a better xG Ratio (66.9%), with Grant McCann’s side returning W2 D2 L1. Add Elliot Lee from Wrexham on deadline day and I reckon that extra quality up top could help them to keep on the right side of the margins.

🥧 HUNGRY: Wigan

Less pie barm. More pure barmy.

Wigan’s xG Ratio across their last five sits at just 26.8%, a steep drop from their season average of 53.5%. What’s striking isn’t a flood of chances conceded, but a near-total collapse in chance creation: just 0.61 xG per game across that run.

The caveat? The opposition: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 9th and 22nd. One to keep an eye on over the next five.

🆙 Manning up: Huddersfield Town

A couple of weeks ago, we noted that Huddersfield under Lee Grant weren’t posting horrific numbers. What’s changed since?

Not much — except the results. Sort of.

The Terriers have won three from three under Manning while posting numbers broadly in line with Grant’s tenure, including taking a smaller share of the xG in two of those games. What is notable is the opposition. Under Grant, Huddersfield had beaten just one current top-eight side. Under Manning, they’ve beaten 5th, 8th and 12th already.

🔗 League Two

😮 EATING: Notts County

Golly. What a five-game spell.

Notts County have posted a 75% share of the xG across that run, and it hasn’t come from wild arrow-firing either. They’ve kept xGA down to just 0.58 per game, returning four wins and a single defeat, away at Accrington Stanley.

Sustain that, and could it be an arrow on the autos?

❌ HANK MARVIN: The bottom three

With Bristol Rovers making signings of the “liquid Evans” variety and Barrow showing signs of life, it’s starting to feel safe to say it’s two from three for the drop.

Look away now Harrogate, Newport and Shrews.

🤔 Bouche Amuser: Cheltenham

Cheltenham have just three points from their last five (W1 L4), yet the performances tell a different story. They’re posting their best expected goals tallies of the season, with a clear uptick in xG share across both five- and ten-game spells.

The process is improving. The outcomes, not yet.

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Words: Sam Parry

The tables are set. Who’s eating this week?

🔗 Championship

💊 EATING: Millwall

We’re entering the glitch. Not because Alex Neil’s side have claimed 10 points from their last 5 games (W3 D1 L1), but because their underlying numbers over that period show an uncharacteristic 2.03 xG per game, for an xG ratio of 65% (for context their average xG over the season is 1.37).

The return of key players from injury has helped. But what has sent those numbers right into the Matrix is an aptitude for getting into good positions. Their frequency of touches in the box over the last 5? It’s 29, 31, 19, 26, 59(!) for an average of 32.8.

I’ll take the Mill pill, Mr Morpheus.

🤕 HANGRY: Blackburn

Back in the real world, Valérien Ismaël has been spitting truths about Blackburn’s situation: "The reality for us is we're missing 13 players and [in] the long run we are feeling it.” Don’t forget the short run Val…

Over the last 5, they’ve lost 3 and drawn twice. They’ve only won once in 10. And per our comparison tables their 17.7 drop off in xG share % (from season-long to 5-game) is the starkest around, bar Sheffield Wednesday.

🟡 CMustard: Oxford United

Yellows have played 5 times since Gary Rowett was sacked just before Christmas. In that time, including three unbeaten games under new boss Matt Bloomfield (W1 D2), their xG share has jumped 11.6 from 46.0% to 57.6%.

That comes down to the chances they’re giving away, or more accurately, that they are not. Oxford have given up 0 big chances under Bloomfield; their xGA over the season is 1.25 but over the last five we’re looking at 0.80 xG. Their chance creation remains a little thinner, more custard than mustard, but we’ll be keeping an eye on a tough next five to see whether they can keep cutting it against Birmingham (H), Sheffield United (A), Coventry (A), Norwich (H), and Middlesbrough (A).

🔗 League One

🥙 EATING: Exeter City

We can’t keep banging on about the Argylaissance, no matter the eye-popping metrics over their last five games… xG (2.17) and xGA (0.88).

But there’s interest just an hour’s drive down the A38 where, with a 5-game spread on the table, Exeter pick up a plate. The Grecians, fair to say, have been filling their pitta with a bitta fun.

Gary Caldwell’s side have picked up 13 points from their last 5 games: Port Vale (W), Stevenage (W), Huddersfield (D), Luton (W), Wimbledon (W). Their away form is better over their last 3 than it was over the 11 before. Their home PPG (1.92) is the sixth best in the league, and with all that’s going on behind the scenes, you’ve got to find a bit of joy in that.

Over the season, they’re running a shade under 50% xG share (1.14 xG v 1.17 xGA). That 1.17 xGA figure is comfortably top half, and whilst we’ve seen minor improvements to it over both 5- and 10-game tables, it’s their chance creation that has improved the most: 1.63 xG (5 game) and 1.32 (10 game)

⬇️ Feeders: Peterborough

Posh are feeders. Over the last five games, Luke Williams’ side have seen a per-90 xG Total of 3.86, and no team has given up better chances to their opposition in that time (2.36 xGA).

Yes, the 4.04 xGA against Argyle makes this number noisy. However, they’ve still posted 2+ xGA in 3 out of 5 of those games. Good attacking numbers mean this matters a little less than it might — they’ve won 3 out of 5 — but there’s surely a ‘best practice’ manual somewhere that says conceding this many chances is a recipe you don’t want to cook up.

⁉️ MINT IMP-ERIAL: Lincoln City

Imps’ xG share over the season is looking less than minty. Cause for humbug?

Across our 5-, 10- and season-long tables, Michael Skubala’s side carry the worst xGA of any team in the top six. Their xGD is the lowest of the group, and they’re only just scraping a 50% share of the expected goals.

Is that explicable by game state? It’s something to consider.

No EFL side has taken the lead more often (18 times), nor held it for longer (46.6% of minutes), than Lincoln City. Score early and opponents are forced into aggression. Score early and you have cause to sit off. Both statements may be true, but it’ll be interesting to see if variance might give Imps a limp soon.

🔗 League Two

🥓 EATING: Salford

If Karl Robinson is overseeing a streak then it’s a good one.

Salford are 1st in our 5-game form table (69.3% xG share), and 2nd in our 10-game form table (64.6 xG share) where their 1.90 xG cannot be bettered. They’ve had the lion’s share of chances against opponents in that time and it’s translated into 23 points from their last 10 games, and 13 from 5. Good going.

If there’s a wrinkle, it’s that a good chunk of top teams in League Two are bang at it as well….

💤 HUNGRY: Shrewsbury

You Shrews, you snooze…

Bottom of the 5-game xG form table, Shrewsbury have had season-long issues with creating chances. Going W1 L4 over that period, their xG (0.82 per 90) is fairly consistent with their results: 1-5, 1-0, 0-3, 0-1, 1-3.

By my count, they’ve taken 16 shots on target in those 5 games and just 31 on target over 10 games, which is totally consistent with their season long numbers of 3.04 SoT per 90 (Opta). It’s a pattern and not a good one.

⚖️ Weighing up: Fleetwood Town

Pete Wild was sacked over the weekend after a five-game run of four defeats and one draw. All narrow stuff: 1-0s, 2-1s, and a 0-0.

Dig a little deeper and Fleetwood’s numbers scream bang average, not terrifying. Season-long, 10-game, even five-game trends all paint a picture of a side competing. Goals for and against sit level at 34-34, and only twice all season have they lost by more than a single goal.

This hasn’t been a team getting blown away — it’s been a team living (and losing) on very fine margins. And that was, rightly or wrongly, deemed a sackable offence.

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Words: Sam Parry

Last week, Adrian Chiles wrote a Guardian column titled, “I’ve been thinking a lot about dog poo.”

Replace “dog poo” with Wrexham, Hull, Coventry, Argyle, Stevenage, Huddersfield, Colchester, Crawley and Barrow, and we’ve been thinking along very similar lines.

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🔗 Championship

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 FEAST: Wrexham AFC

You seen ‘Parky Supreme’ yet?

On the face of it, Wrexham’s 12 points from five games looks like lift-off whilst 15 points from 10 does not. But, over both timeframes, the xG backs up a general improvement.

Wrexham’s season-long xG ratio dips below the 50% mark, but across our 10-game and 5-game tables there’s a clear uptick. There is noise. But it’s sweet, sweet music.

🐅 FAMINE: Hull City

There’s no getting away from it: the Tigers remain the Championship’s great data outliers. Their xG share is:

• 2nd-worst overall

• 5th-worst over 10 games

• 3rd-worst over 5 games

You blinking well enjoy it, because:

• PPG over 5 games: 5th-best

• PPG over 10 games: 4th-best

• Season-long PPG (AKA THE LEAGUE TABLE): 5th-best

🌥️ PICKY BITS : Coventry City

Blue-sky thinking allows creativity without constraint. Sky Blue thinking, right now, is about recognising that Coventry’s creativity has been constrained recently – just not by very much.

Running at 1.5 PPG over the last ten games, Frank Lampard’s side have still posted a greater share of xG in seven of those ten. They’re simply a touch less dominant. A tad easier to play through.

You could call this regression to the mean: Coventry were always likely to dip from an extremely high base. Or you could be mean: Middlesbrough and Ipswich are outperforming their season-long underlying numbers, Coventry are not, and suddenly the title race is ONNNNNN.

Pick your own narrative.

🔗 League One

💚 FEAST: Plymouth Argyle

Chomp-chomp.

We suggested last week that the colour might be returning to Argyle’s cheeks. Nothing quite lifts the spirits – or eats the ghosts – like… a 1–0 win?

This was arguably the single best performance under Tom Cleverley. Argyle racked up a mammoth 4.04 xG against Peterborough United’s 0.19, meaning they’re now averaging 2.00+ xG per game across their last five.

Yes, it’s one game. Caveats to the left of them. Caveats to the right of them. Small sample sizes in front of them. But it’s rare to see a team concede first (within 23 minutes, in fact) and for game state never to meaningfully shift away from the side in the lead. That’s fun. Keep an eye.

⬇️ FAMINE: Stevenage

Stevenage have taken two points from their last five matches.

In that run, they’ve posted the lowest xG in the league (0.70) while allowing 1.69 xG per game at the other end. Their xGD over 10 games is -0.63 per game. Season-long xGD? It’s -0.36 per game.

We might need to dust off the false-position klaxon for the side in 8th.

🤎 Miss-his-xG Mud Pie?: Huddersfield Town

A little managerial wrinkle.

We flagged last week that the Terriers’ results weren’t marrying up neatly with the underlying numbers. Like Will Still and Ryan Mason before him, Lee Grant was sacked after posting an xG share that, per our tables, had Huddersfield high on all timeframes.

Here’s the straw that broke the camel’s (owner Kevin Nagle’s) back…

🔗 League Two

💥 FEAST: Colchester United

I think it was the greatest band in the world who sang:

“You know I’ve done it before and I can do it some more, I got my eye on the score, I’m gonna cut to the core…”

The Hives might claim that title – but are Col U the best team in League Two right now? Let’s make the case.

Last five games:

• xGA: 0.69 (best)

• xGD: +0.81 per game (best)

• xG ratio: 68.6% (best)

Last ten games:

• xGA: 0.90 per 90 (best)

• xG ratio: 60.8% (3rd-best)

The big shift is defensive – or rather, the chances they aren’t giving away. They’re 9th in the table. The data says keep watch for the “Tick. Tick. Boom.”

📉 FAMINE: Crawley Town

Crawley have spent their January building a new squad (they’ve signed 10 players already). But as each game and every poor performance goes by, they are running out of track.

There are enough games remaining to turn it around. But per our tables, what’s most concerning right now is that the underlying numbers are getting worse, not better. They are conceding more chances, not fewer. They are creating less, not more.

🫖 High Tea: Barrow

Barrow’s games are providing us with a hot, steamy mug of chances.

Their season-long numbers show games averaging around the 2.70 xG total mark. In their last 5 games, it’s up to 3.52. They’ve only picked up 3 points in that time – W1 L4 – but perhaps new-signing Danny Rose will shoot some hoops if they continue to play out basketball games.

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WELL, GOODBYE!

Well, hello. We’ve just updated every rung of NOT THE TOP TABLE, our xG form guides for the EFL. And this? This is an email that adds some colour and context to the numbers. It was written, this week, by Sam Parry.

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Since cutting the ribbon on this data wing of NTT20, we’ve listened to a lot of feedback and learnt from our fair share of technical bugs – including the internet actually going down, twice!

So, a quick parish notice as we relaunch the best (and possibly the only) xG form tables for all three EFL leagues. YOU WON’T BELIEVE THE DIFFERENCE THESE 10 TWEAKS WILL MAKE TO YOUR TUESDAY ROUTINE!!!!

1. Each league now has a fixed and dedicated page;

2. The tables will be updated on Tuesdays, and we will let you know by email when that happens;

3. The email in question (“Who’s eating…”) will be a write-up of the most eye-catching data points, teeming with hard-nosed information and soft-boiled gags;

4. You don’t need to know this but the reason for 3. is because we found Gremlins in the system where the email-version of the tables differed to the browser-version, and we refuse to water those Gremlins any longer, nor feed them after midnight, or at any time;

5. I digress…

6. We’ve now added league positions to each of the tables (thanks for those suggestions);

7. We’ve also added a table comparing xG share across timeframes;

8. Some, but not all, of this content is now behind a paywall;

9. We’re eternally grateful to Eamonn Geoghegan for pulling the data together, and to you for reading;

10. Well, we promised ten.

🔗 Championship

🤤 EATING: Sheffield United

On what charge? For eating a league? A succulent EFL league?

Over the last 10 games, no team has accrued more points than Sheffield United (22). In that run, they’ve claimed a 70% share of total xG, gone unbeaten at home (W4 D1) and scored 25 goals.

For all of that, they are 16th.

This is Championship manifest.

🦊 HUNGRY: Leicester City

Leicester’s xG ratio over the last five fixtures (34.3%) is better than Sheffield Wednesday’s – and that’s it. Nobody else’s.

Zooming out, the Foxes’ season-long xG share in our Running Totals sits at 43.70%. That’s within 1% of Oxford (23rd), Norwich (22nd) and Portsmouth (21st). The point being: this isn’t noise. The trend has been heading south for a while.

Sick as a fox they are. (It’s a type of dog.)

🥴 AMUSING THE BOUCHE: West Bromwich Albion

West Brom parted company with Ryan Mason after a 2–1 defeat to… Leicester. ‘Twas a Fatawu stunner wot won it.

Now, the decision may be fair enough. Mason may not have shaken enough biros and felt tips out of the Baggies’ bag, and the new man may yet turn them into a fresh set of gel pens. But. But. But. But.

West Brom have the third-highest xG ratio over the last five games and the fourth-highest over the last 10. Mason was sacked after taking nine points from those 10 games, but given the underlying numbers, this might be a belter of a job for Eric Ramsay to bag.

🔗 League One

🐶 EATING: Huddersfield Town

Terriers, eh? We’re in sick dog territory again, but the ameliorative kind.

Lee Grant’s side have the third-best xG and second-best xG ratio over the last 5 games. Over 10, they have the second-highest xG, the second-lowest xGA and – naturally enough – the best xG ratio.

They’ve taken only 14 points from those 10 games, winning three, drawing five and losing two. Will the PPG start catching up with the numbers? Let’s throw them a stick and watch…

📉 HUNGRY: Northampton Town

Cast your mind back to 1st December, when Cobblers were 14th with 23 points from 17 games. Now stop casting your mind.

Northampton have given up a 70% share of xG in their last five games. The equation: 0.73 xG and 1.70 xGA. By my maths, that’s almost a whole expected goal of difference per game.

They’ve gone W1 D2 L2 over five games (not bad), have added just six points since 1st December (quite bad), and are two points off the drop zone (bad). Their opponents in those seven games did include a rapidly rising Peterborough as well as sides currently occupying 5th, 4th, 6th and 5th again, but things still look rough. And you thought the dog puns were over!

🥧 LESS PASTY: Plymouth Argyle

As in, less beige, less blanched, rather than some dietary advice about Devon’s second-most famous export. (Second-most famous after…? Have a swing.*)

The colour hasn’t fully returned to Tom Cleverley’s cheeks after a challenging start to life at Plymouth, but it’s certainly made an appointment. Our xG comparison table, pictured above, shows their improvement over time – 55%ish is solidly top-10 levels.

That run saw them go W2 D2 L1. Argyle remain closer to the bottom four than they are to the top 6, or even the top 10, but we’ve seen how a little run can go a long way.

*It’s Agatha Christie.

🔗 League Two

🔝 EATING: Bromley

Yeah, yeah, the top club is looking strong. So what?

A quick swizz at our xG Ratio Comparison Tables shows that Bromley’s 5- and 10-game form is better than their season average. So, not only are they good, which we knew, but they are good and improving. Their ascent to the top of the table is not, it seems, built on variance’s fair hand but on a genuine improvement in performances.

⛔ HUNGRY: Harrogate Town

Thanks to an added-time equaliser last time out, Harrogate are no longer bottom of the League Two table. They are bottom of our 5-game form table though, with a share of less than 25% of the total xG in those games. And in that time they scored just one goal – that added-time equaliser.

In fact, one goal for a share of 22.70% xG may well be an overperformance. Makes you think. Well, only for a second. Simon Weaver’s side have taken 7 points at home all season and they’ve got 7 points fewer (18) than at the same stage last year (25). Troubling.

🌡️ DROP IT LIKE IT’S HOT: Crewe Alexandra

This reference doesn’t quite work, because Crewe have cooled over their last five games. Perhaps they’re dropping like coal (hot) in snow (cold)? Apt for a railway town.

The season-long numbers have them chugging along around the 50% mark for xG share. But the drop-off over the last 5, with all due caveats for a small sample size, is quite stark.

Lee Bell’s side have won just once in five games, haven’t scored an away goal in that time, and threw away a lead in added time last time out to… yep, Harrogate.

That’s all for this week. Do have a play around with the tables; they’re all sortable and customisable. Handily, they have a whiff of the corporate spreadsheet about them, so you can spend as much time as you want looking at the 7th-placed team in League Two and their surprisingly bad underlying numbers without fear of reprisal from THE MAN.

Oh, and if you like this email, do let us know.

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WELL, GOODBYE!