Ali Al-Hamadi: TARGET Acquired
The EFL January Transfer Window's most interesting transfer gets a Full Write-Up.
Ali Maxwell
Ali Al-Hamadi (ST) - [Wimbledon - Ipswich] Undisclosed, reported to be 1.75m + add-ons.
This is the most interesting transfer of the entire window. I spent much of yesterday discussing the move with EFL observers, and many who work within EFL clubs. The range of opinions is vast.
The step up from League Two to Championship is a big one, and it happens rarely. Ipswich have starting #9 George Hirst out injured, and moved Freddie Ladapo out on loan. For their short-term ambitions of Championship promotion, their new striker is going to have a lot of responsibility and expectation.
They’ve turned to Ali Al-Hamadi. We like Ali Al-Hamadi (see our TARGETS series).
When you come at transfer coverage from a neutral, objective point of view, it’s easy to forget that such an approach is entirely at odds with the psychology of a fan. Specifically, it’s easy to forget how strongly fan views on players or managers can be based on the performance of other, different human beings with a few situational similarities.
We were reminded of this upon reading the response of some Ipswich fans to their club’s link to Ali Al-Hamadi, which amounted to:
“Just another Gassan Ahadme.”
Oooof. That’s certainly one way of looking at it. Ipswich signed Ahadme — a 21 year-old striker, like Al-Hamadi — on Deadline Day in September 2022. At that point, the Burton Albion forward had played 1,000 minutes and scored six league goals, and had performed well against Ipswich two weeks before signing. But Ahadme never looked ready to play for Ipswich, and he was moved on months later.
And so it is that any 21-year-old striker, signed for Ipswich from a ‘smaller’ team, must be doomed to be ‘another Gassan Ahadme’.
My preferred way of framing this transfer is that Ipswich are signing one of the EFL’s most electric players of 2023. A player who has scored 27 goals in all competitions over the past 12 months, with this his first full season starting games at senior level. A player coveted by the majority of clubs in the Championship and League One.
He’s a player who offers many of the things that managers desire in a forward: speed, explosive movement, channel-running, intelligence to combine with team-mates, and the ability to score with both feet (11 league goals for Wimbledon with his right foot, 11 goals with his left, 1 header).
This is an attacker who, as the following Opta Analyst charts demonstrate, offers a triple threat: goalscoring, chance creation and ball-carrying.
This player profile is in huge demand, but with a huge dearth of supply, both in English football and beyond.
First, let’s remind ourselves which strikers were signed by Championship clubs from outside of the UK last summer.
Plenty of money spent, and six months later, the best performing signing is the one that cost Nine Million Euros. The only players in the above list who were signed permanently for a lower fee than Al-Hamadi are Luis Semedo and Eliezer Mayenda. Both look miles away from being ready to start Championship matches.
And which domestic #9s are available to sign in January for a Championship club? The PL2 boys: Callum Marshall has gone to West Bromwich Albion; Joe Hugill and Ademola Ola-Adebomi, to Burton. Michael Obafemi, Emmanuel Dennis and Billy Sharp have signed for Championship clubs. And no player under the age of 27 has scored more than 10 goals in League One this season, so if you’re looking there for someone who may score goals and feasibly could grow in value, it’s not fertile ground.
The most concerning aspect of the transfer, in the short term, is Al-Hamadi’s fit for the ‘George Hirst Role’. This isn’t a direct replacement. He is shorter than Hirst, and much less likely to win aerial duels, as a fixed, target man #9 who drops in and links play with the likes of Nathan Broadhead, Conor Chaplin and Wes Burns. Wimbledon have had Omar Bugiel doing the donkey work in order to allow Al-Hamadi to focus on what he does best, and asking him to lead the line solo will be a tough test. Thankfully, there’s a strong suggestion that Ipswich will look to add a Beefy Type as well as Al-Hamadi – a Sam Gallagher or similar.
But it’s also easy to see how Al-Hamadi’s strengths can complement the way that Ipswich attack. Does this need to be a direct replacement for Hirst?
His movement, speed and relentlessness has made him impossible for League Two defenders to handle. Al-Hamadi’s finishing is not always clinical, and that does not matter. The perfect striker does not exist in the Championship. Hell, it may not even exist in the Premier League anymore — and here’s a good podcast episode on the topic with a handsome host.
Our friends at Scouted are lucky to have access to SkillCorner physical data that’s off-limits for most mere mortals outside of football clubs. And, sure enough, Al-Hamadi’s physical data projects favourably with Championship level, which has to be a good sign. The savviest Championship clubs will have access to this data, and it will hold a lot of sway.
I think this is a common-sense signing for Ipswich Town. I personally believe that it will be a successful one. But I am worried that others will judge its success in a way that is too binary:
“Did Ipswich win promotion? If ‘yes’, transfer was a success. If ‘no’, it was a failure.”
And that’s both the beauty and the curse of football!
This is the third consecutive January in which Wimbledon have lost a key attacker: Ollie Palmer, Ayoub Assal and now Al-Hamadi. This, once again, will sting Dons fans. But Al-Hamadi has been so good, and carried himself so brilliantly, that there seems a strong sense of pride and goodwill. Lovely stuff.
Wimbledon’s record from February onwards in 21/22 and 22/23? W1 D14 L23. Just 17 points from 38 games. Let’s see if the squad built by Johnnie Jackson and Craig Cope is robust enough to handle things better this time round.
Lastly, a penny for Wycombe Wanderers’ thoughts. They had Al-Hamadi in the building. They gave him 173 league minutes, one start, and decided to move him on. Given what he has become in the 12 months since – just 12 months – will there be some regrets?
Perhaps. But then, they picked him up on a free and presumably on a low wage, as he had been unattached for 5 months. And now, they are set to benefit from a sell-on clause reported to be 25% or higher. Woof!
Hopefully, you’ve come to realise why this is the most interesting transfer of the EFL window so far. There is so much to go at. There’s a lot to love, and understandable concerns.
As for me? My rating?
RATING: LOVE AL-HAMADI, LOVE TRANSFERS, LOVE THE EFL, LOVE IT
Your unrivalled writing and analysis?
Rating: LOVE IT.
The lazy Ahadme comparisons aren’t helped by their surnames sharing a few letters