Another double-header: Salford, Orient and Barnsley unstoppable, a squeezed Champ and Matt Watts on Mark Robins' Stoke
06 January 2025 | Here's a New Year's notes covering the biggest stories, stats and insights from this week's double-header.
● BIG STORIES ● CHEAT SHEET ● 5IVELIGHTS ● THE VIEW FROM ● FANTASY FOOTBALL ● WATCHING BRIEF ●
Then and now…
Yesterday marked the twelfth and final day of Christmas. If you banked on the Gavin and Stacey finale being the dramatic peak of the festive period, you failed to consider what the EFL might offer. There were eight points-winning stoppage-time goals on New Year’s Day, an unfathomable surfeit of goal-of-the-season contenders, another manager gone (Mark Bonner) and another hired in his place (John Coleman), while one player – Aaron Morley – scored a late winner against Exeter in consecutive games for two different clubs. Quirks simply do not get better than that. EF-EFFING-L.
Where are we at then? Let’s have a quick look at the past four fixtures to see how we’re going. Welcome to this New Year’s Notes double-header.
THE CHAMPIONSHIP: THEN AND NOW
LEAGUE ONE: THEN AND NOW
LEAGUE TWO: THEN AND NOW
🚨 Big Stories
A selection of decisive moments from across the EFL by Sam Parry and Huw Davies
🥸 Another fine Mes — Hull 3-3 Leeds — If you’re wondering why we’re leading with Leeds’ draw and not wins for Sheffield United (2-1 at Watford) and Burnley (1-0 in the derby away at Blackburn, taking just four shots) that brought the pair to within a point of the league leaders, it’s because we, and Daniel Farke, need to talk about Illan Meslier. The goalkeeper is A Problem – certainly when compared to Messrs Trafford, Cooper and Patterson, all performing above average for goals prevented at Leeds’ nearest rivals. Here, Meslier was caught out for Hull’s first goal (set up exquisitely by Mason Burstow, finished calmly by the under-fire Abu Kamara) but got away with another error when the hosts hit the post. Then, with Leeds leading 3-1 via two errors by his opposite number, Ivor Pandur, Meslier cost his team two points by dropping the ball at Joao Pedro’s feet – for which he received a Swansea bollocking from Joe Rodon – before entering No Man’s Land at a corner. The result: much bunching.
🚀 The Forson’s strong in this one — Norwich 2-1 Coventry — Let’s pause this rundown of the business ends of each EFL division to tell you about 11th vs 14th (as then was) in the Championship. Why? Because when a player comes off the bench in the 84th minute and scores a sublime equaliser in the 91st minute, then a winner in the 95th, he deserves a mention. Amankwah Forson, take a bow, then take a look at our 5iveLights – you won’t be disappointed.
🥃 Is Bolton’s glass half-full or half-empty? — Exeter 1-2 Bolton — Trailing after 87 minutes, triumphant at full-time, this was the latest Bolton have come back to win a match since Opta began checking in 2001/02. Ian Evatt’s critics argue this will only prolong a faltering and increasingly terse, tetchy tenure, but there is another perspective. The beautiful, flowing move for Aaron Collins’ disallowed first-half goal was not the product of players lacking all confidence following one win in five. A team in total disarray does not stage a late comeback after the frustration of hitting the crossbar, seeing Klaidi Lolos miss from two yards, then going behind just seconds later. Bolton can, should, must take heart from this. For Exeter, Christmas is long gone but Morley’s ghost still haunts them: Aaron’s two stoppage-time winners in four days, first for Wycombe and then for Bolton, leaves the Grecians 10 points off the play-offs, 11 points above relegation, and wondering if it’s too cold to hit the beach already.
❄️ Snow hope for Cambridge and Burton — “Is this it?” sang The Strokes’ Julian Casablancas in his song about the tenuous and depressive nature of casual relationships. For Cambridge United and Burton Albion, their League One stays have been more than a fling… but is this it? Both missed the best possible opportunity to clamber away from the four-team pit: Burton threw away a two-goal lead to draw with an out-of-form Peterborough on New Year’s Day, then lost in the 86th minute to fellow strugglers Northampton, while Cambridge conspired to lose 1-0 to relegation rivals Bristol Rovers despite having the better of the game. You cannot spurn these opportunities and survive. Four teams have to get relegated, and Shrewsbury are picking up points; for these two, it really does look as though… well. This Is It.
⌚ Cumeth the hour, Cumeth the Cam — Carlisle 0-1 Tranmere — In League Two, Mike Williamson’s Cumbrian caper came to another decisive standstill with defeat to meandering Tranmere. Last summer, Williamson let Cameron Norman leave MK Dons for Tranmere. Last weekend, he saw his Carlisle side lose to a goal scored by… Cameron Norman. Poetic irony aside, Tranmere seem to have worked out precisely how little is required to survive in League Two – they’ve won just one in four, two in nine and only four games since August, but when that includes victories at home to fellow strugglers in Carlisle, Harrogate and Newport, that’s enough. Carlisle are spending to survive, but this costly defeat means they miss another checkpoint in their race against time.
⤴️ Promotion places, Ammie right? — MK Dons 0-1 Salford — Salford’s scintillating form continued with a 1-0 win over MK Dons to make it 6 games, 6 wins, 12 goals scored and a big fat ZERO conceded. Q: Where has this come from? A: Salford, but also a set of kinder fixtures, an extraordinary introduction to the professional game for 18-year-old keeper Matt Young, and – let’s have it right – their defensive numbers have always been solid. The transition to 3-at-the-back has put their round pegs into ever-rounder holes, while Karl Robinson has demonstrated his track record of getting quality individuals to thrive, including last season’s League Two barnstormer, Hakeeb Adelakun, who is starting to really motor. The Ammies went into December in 15th; now they’re in the top three.
🤏 Brought Don to size — Doncaster 1-2 Port Vale — Just below Salford are the huddled masses yearning to breathe free. Leaving aside Walsall, now 10 (!) points clear of 2nd with a game in hand, the whole of League Two’s top 7 are separated by two points. That’s because Port Vale remembered where the goal is just in time for their visit to Doncaster; having not scored twice in a game since October, finding the net just four times in 10 matches since then, they converted two of their five shots at the Keepmoat and won, thanks to a combination of Antwoine Hackford, Ryan Croasdale, Lorent Tolaj and Ben Amos. Donny, who could’ve moved into 2nd, instead sit down in 7th. What a league.
📊 Monday Morning Cheat Sheet
From the WhatsApp group to the watercooler: stats to keep you ahead of the game.
🎭 Max Pleasure v Max Pain — The following teams took maximum points over the festive period: Barnsley (P4 W4), Leyton Orient (P4 W4), Salford (P4 W4) and Walsall (P3 W3). Whilst Cambridge, Luton, Chesterfield, Gillingham and Newport ended up without a single point, although the Hatters have a game tonight.
🟡 Oxford unbeaten in Rowett revival — No team has racked up more Championship points in their last four games than Oxford (10), with Gary Rowett's appointment delivering immediate results over a kind but therefore crucial set of fixtures – namely, against Cardiff (3-2), Argyle (2-0), Millwall (1-0) and Preston (1-1).
👑 QP-R all right — Having failed to win any of their first nine home games of the season, QPR have won four on the spin going into tonight’s crucial tie with the second-worst away side in the league, Luton Town.
🦈 What lies beneath — Bristol City have made light work of the Christmas thick-’n’-fast, taking 10 points from 4 games against teams in the bottom half (drawing with Argyle between wins over Luton, Pompey and Derby). Having struggled against the strugglers in recent times, the Robins are now ratcheting up pressure on the top six.
⛔ We interrupt the drumming up of excitement to pose the following question — Given that the League One weekend gave us 18 goals in 12 games, including four 1-0s and three goalless draws, should we disband the third tier? Discuss.
🕶️ Brad Boys — Bradford City beat Grimsby to secure a fourth consecutive home win, putting them on 27 points in games at Valley Parade this season – only Walsall have accrued more on home soil.
🌪️ Wind-assisted — Sheffield Wednesday owe much to Josh Windass, who has scored five goals (and assisted one) in his last six games to reach double figures in a Championship campaign for the first time, just before his 31st birthday. The Owls may be cursing his defending, though, after a lazy waft let in Millwall to secure a draw.
⚽ Ley-it on Don — Spurs’ loanee Jamie Donley has now scored in each of his last three League One matches for Leyton Orient, with six goal involvements in his last five league games overall (4G, 2A). He failed to register any in his first 15 games.
👶 The Young Ones — Matt Young (and yes, he is) made his league debut for Salford on 3 December 2024. Since then, the 18-year-old on loan from Sunderland has conceded just once in eight games, making five saves to keep out MK Dons at the weekend.
🐕 Old dog, old tricks — Born a lifetime before (i.e. 1987) Accrington Stanley’s Shaun Whalley has surely never scored three more important goals back-to-back than his penalty against Grimsby and a double (including another penalty) against ColU, as Accy won 3-2 and 2-0 respectively. John Doolan’s side climb five points clear of the drop.
🤡 Only Doaking — Across the 92, only Mohamed Salah (8) has provided more assists since November than Ben Doak (6), with the Boro winger teeing up Emmanuel Latte Lath over the weekend.
🟥 RED WKD — Barnsley’s wicked form owes a lot to Davis Keillor-Dunn, whose last 6 games have returned: G, G, G+A, G, X, G+A. That’s 7 goal involvements right in the thick of things.
⌛ A long-time More-coming — A 2-0 win over Tranmere on New Year’s Day meant Morecambe became the final side to earn a home league win in England’s top four tiers in 2024/25.
🏞️ Park Run — Wrexham’s 1-0 win against Peterborough brought up Phil Parkinson’s 1000th game in management. He averages 2.05 ppg as Wrexham boss, you know.
🎦 Oh, sod it, lots-of-lights…
In no particular order, a collection of our favourite goals or clips from across the 72.
Just Josh Windass — From. Inside. His. Own. Half.
Good Evan’s — Weir with an incredible back-heel goal-line clearance.
Snap, crackle and pure POP from Reading’s Sam Smith.
More like THORson — Amankwah Forson produces a stunning late leveller for Norwich (before bagging the winner).
Thunderbonce: Ian Fleming wrote James Bond, and Zian Flemming wrote himself into Burnley folklore with a diving header for the nostalgia lovers.
Still Dre — Blades’ Andre Brooks scored his first professional goal on 29th December; he’ll struggle to score better than his second. Cut inside, BANG.
Assist of the week for starters, and how about a juicy LOBster from Abu Kamara?
ChatGPT: give me an anagram of Ao Tanaka to describe his goal on Saturday. Answer: a… a… a… a… TONK!
The View From…
How do you solve a problem like Stoke City?
That’s a question for their new boss, Mark Robins, who oversaw a frustrating 0-0 draw with Plymouth in his first game in charge. Stoke dominated throughout but failed to make the breakthrough. They have, however, picked up five points and kept three consecutive clean sheets since the dismissal of Narcís Pèlach on 27th December.
The Potters have consistently underachieved since their relegation from the Premier League, finishing 16th, 15th, 14th, 14th, 16th and 17th. Gary Rowett, Nathan Jones, Michael O’Neill, Alex Neil, Steven Schumacher and Narcís Pèlach have all tried and ultimately failed to put Stoke in the top half, let alone the top flight.
The chopping and changing in the dugout is only part of the problem, however. Since dropping into the second tier, Stoke have had a number of different people responsible for leading the club’s football operations, making key decisions such as hiring and firing managers. Be it Tony Scholes, Mark Cartwright, Ricky Martin or the current sporting director, Jon Walters, there have been too many different voices, too many different approaches and too many new eras which all seem to end the same way. A lack of consistency off the pitch has played a significant part in the consistent underachievement on it.
And yet Stoke is still an attractive proposition for prospective players and managers. The club spent a decade in the Premier League between 2008 and 2018. It has a wonderful fanbase and incredibly supportive owners. The facilities are outstanding, the academy is held in high regard and, without being too crass, Stoke are known to pay very well.
Following a run of five defeats in six games and two goals conceded in each of those fixtures, with a total of 104 shots faced, the decision to remove Narcís Pèlach was the right one. The wrong decision was to dispense with Steven Schumacher and replace him with Pèlach without a pre-season for him to embed his philosophy and a transfer window with which to aid him. Moreover, while Robins resembles an excellent hire for Stoke, his appointment represents yet another significant shift in approach. You can’t appoint an inexperienced Catalonian coach in mid-September and replace him with one of the most experienced current Championship managers on 1st January without people questioning your long-term vision for the club.
No appointment is a sure thing. After he spent more than seven years at Coventry – a lifetime or two for many EFL bosses – Robins’ decision to jump back into management after just a couple of months away could be an issue further down the line. Questions also remain over whether or not he will be hampered by the absence of his long-time right-hand man, Adi Viveash. Clearly he’s an excellent manager for the level, but is he as good without Viveash by his side?
With Robins at the helm, I’m confident that Stoke will be a Championship club next season. Unsurprisingly, their squad is an eclectic mix of players recruited by different technical directors for different head coaches and managers, but there are a couple of standout individuals, some good senior pros and a number of exciting youngsters. With a few additions in the summer (not too many!), I’m also confident that Stoke could be a good Championship team next season.
That being said, my one wish for Stoke City in 2025 is a whole year with the same sporting director and the same man in the dugout… or are those two wishes?
🏆 Fantasy Football
Go head-to-head against team NTT20 in our EFL Fantasy Football league
For some teams, it was a double game week, which meant, for Sam, it was a team of double-game-weekers. After Thursday’s fixtures, we notched a solid 50 points. No prizes for guessing what happened next…
God damn the elements. #GameOff has had us over a barrel. Still, it was a low-scoring week overall and team NTT20 remain on the cusp of the top 100, with one player yet to play. Top marks this week for Yellow Submarines and Pilgrim Arms who scored 83 points each, whilst Mr Browne’s Boys leads overall.
📺 Watching Brief
Upcoming live EFL games - 12:30 unless stated
Monday 6 January 2025
CH: QPR vs Luton (8pm)
Saturday 11 January
L1: 12:30pm, Rotherham vs Bolton
L2: 12:30pm, Grimsby vs Notts County, Walsall vs Tranmere