Blades cut Leeds' lead again, Walsall wobble again, Derby live and Terriers sack Duff – plus Ali Maxwell's secret to winning
10 March 2025 | Weekend Notes brings you the biggest stories, stats and insights from the EFL weekend.
● BIG STORIES ● CHEAT SHEET ● 5IVELIGHTS ● THE VIEW FROM ● FANTASY FOOTBALL ●
Do you ever just catch fire…?
Not in the spontaneous combustion, instant death kind of way – no, in the sense that everything suddenly clicks into place.
The new habit you’ve struggled to form for months? It finally sticks. The extra effort you put into that work project? Your boss loves it. The message you nervously sent to the attractive, funny person you met at a drinks thing? They actually reply, and they’re free on Thursday. The gym routine, the creative spark, the confidence in social situations – all of it just suddenly works.
No, me neither. But that’s exactly what’s happening across the EFL right now, specifically to Coventry City, Bolton Wanderers and Colchester United. Greyscale has become vibrant colour. A dull hum is a crackling buzz. The ceiling has been raised, the floor appears to have been refurbished, and momentum is on their side.
How long can this last? Will reality pull them back to the mean, or could they achieve the impossible dream?
Welcome to Weekend Notes. Let’s eat.
🚨 Big Stories
A selection of decisive moments from across the EFL, by Huw Davies and Matt Watts
😨 Don’t panic! — Portsmouth 1-0 Leeds, Sheffield United 1-0 Preston, Burnley 4-0 Luton — On Saturday night, I wrote, “The Championship chasing pack win and Leeds buckle under / withstand the pressure (delete as appropriate following Pompey result on Sunday)”. We shall be deleting the latter, then.
Blades and Burnley had indeed won, Blades thanks to Tyrese Campbell and Burnley thanks to… well, Luton, who served up a red card, an own goal and a defensive error for 2-0 just in the first half. Leeds could have won as well, however: they made good chances and should have had a penalty, away to a team picking up their 9th victory in 12 home games (D2 L1) since Colby Bishop returned from heart surgery. The fear in the stands is real but a strong nerve is required, especially with Sheffield United drawing level and Burnley sitting just two points back. Pompey’s match-winners were goalscorer Bishop and goal-stopper Nicolas Schmid, while John Mousinho deserves huge credit for achieving safety after a difficult first few months.
🚫 Duffless — Bristol Rovers 1-0 Huddersfield — This fourth defeat in five pushed Huddersfield out of the top six for the first time since November, and Michael Duff has paid the price. His side reacted quickly to Ruel Sotiriou’s early goal but the game drifted away from the Terriers (they had just one shot in the final 40 minutes, despite going increasingly direct) and their season is doing the same. Top two was the aim; 6th place, the worst acceptable outcome; 7th… well, here we are. Duff will rue an injury crisis and tight margins: each of Huddersfield’s 16 games since Christmas has ended with a one-goal margin at most, yet they’ve taken only 19 points from them.
Replacing them in the play-off places are Bolton, who won the B’ton Derby (sorry, Boston) 2-1 at the Pirelli thanks to Josh Sheehan’s stunning strike, despite Burton leading 6-2 in shots on target and 3-0 in big chances. Is Bolton’s form sustainable? At this stage, who cares?
📡 “We’re picking up some interference…” — Walsall 1-3 Grimsby, Cheltenham 0-1 Colchester — If Grimsby and Colchester were going under the radar, they’re now well and truly on the radar! Dave Artell’s side made it 17 points from 7 games with a come-from-behind victory over a wobbly Walsall, drawing level on points with Crewe, who clung onto the final play-off spot thanks to a rocket from Connor O’Riordan to equalise against Salford. Colchester were at the races in Cheltenham, where Harry Anderson took them to a third consecutive win to nil and 11 games unbeaten. Danny Cowley’s men are still four points back but, like Grimsby, they have a game in hand over the Railwaymen – and not only that, but they host each of the four teams directly above them (Grimsby, Crewe, Port Vale and Notts County) before the season ends.
🐴 Looking a gift horse in the mouth — Gillingham 1-0 Bradford — With Walsall falling to another defeat, there was an opportunity for Bradford to claim top spot… and they didn’t take it! The all-conquering Bantams succumbed to the rarely-conquering Gills, as Conor Masterson found a winner. Doncaster in 3rd let a two-goal lead slip at home to Swindon, but at least Wimbledon applied a bit of pressure – they beat fellow promotion-chasers Notts County 2-0 in front of our roving reporter. More on that below, in The View From…
🚚 Ram-raid on Rovers – Derby 2-1 Blackburn – No hanging about. John Eustace welcomed his jilted ex to meet the family and quickly took his coat… then his wallet, keys and three points. Derby led 1-0 after three minutes and 2-0 after seven, as Craig Forsyth – old enough to remember Blackburn winning the Premier League – and Ebou Adams scored from close range. Makhtar Gueye got one back but couldn’t stretch to an equaliser and, better still, no one else in the bottom seven won. Derby’s deficit is back to four points and they’ve leapfrogged two truly terrible teams to reach 22nd.
🥵 Doing it the hard way – Coventry 3-2 Stoke, WBA 1-0 QPR – The Championship’s play-off chasers all made life difficult for themselves, but while everybody from 7th to 11th dropped points to teams below them, the top-six incumbents overcame their self-made obstacles. West Bromwich Albion lost Darnell Furlong to a dim first-half red card after Adam Armstrong had netted a penalty with the Baggies’ second (and final) shot of the game, yet the 10 men kept QPR at bay, aided by Koki Saito missing from four yards. Coventry’s club-record ninth win in 10 looked inevitable when Tatsuhiro Sakamoto helped Victor Torp to score twice, and they should’ve had a penalty as well, but Stoke – feeling trolled by Cov scoring from a long throw – exacted Mark Robins’ revenge and made it 2-2… only for Bobby Thomas to hit a great late winner. Phew.
🏝 Drifting out to sea – Is the League One relegation battle over already? On Friday, the points gap to safety for each team in the dropzone was 3 (Burton), 7 (Cambridge and Crawley) and 8 (Shrewsbury). None of the three teams just above the dotted line had won any of their last three fixtures. The shore was distant, but visible.
It may have just disappeared over the horizon.
Crawley did grab a late draw in the early game against Reading, but what Cambridge and Shrewsbury didn’t need, as they slipped to defeat at the there-for-the-taking pair of Wigan and Exeter respectively, was victories for Northampton and Bristol Rovers, nor Peterborough taking an unexpected point from 2nd-placed Wycombe (and it would’ve been three but for Richard Koné’s stoppage-time equaliser). Can any of the bottom four make the inevitable more… evitable?
⏳ Running out of time — Tranmere 2-1 Bromley, MK Dons 2-1 Morecambe, Harrogate 1-0 Carlisle — The battle to stay in the EFL might be heading the same way as the battle to stay in League One. Andy Crosby’s Tranmere came from behind to beat Bromley, extending their lead above the dotted line to four points. While Carlisle were conceding a 95th-minute own goal to lose 1-0 at Harrogate, Morecambe gave MK Dons their first win since January, despite taking a first-half lead. It’s the seventh time this season that Morecambe have immediately followed up a victory with a defeat – and they’ve only won eight games.
📊 Monday Morning Cheat Sheet
From the WhatsApp group to the watercooler: stats to keep you ahead of the game.
🚀 Zoom: 101 — With Sunderland’s 2-1 win over Cardiff, Jobe Bellingham has sped to 101 Championship appearances already; he’s only the second teenager since the 2004 rebrand to play 100+ games (Will Hughes was the first).
🧽 Spotless — Oxford are the only Championship side without a spotkick in 2024/25, as WBA received (and scored) their first penalty of the season against QPR.
👨💼 Mr Consistency (ish) — On the plus side, Oxford’s draw with Norwich meant that Gary Rowett has still never lost four consecutive league games across his entire managerial career (503 matches).
🔥 Gas keep the home fires burning – Bristol Rovers are W4 D1 L1 through their last six games at the Memorial Stadium, as they inch ever closer to safety.
🤢 Homesick Hatters — Luton have lost 15 of their 18 away matches in the Championship this season, and 21 of their last 24 including Premier League fixtures.
🥁 More like ALL-STOP — Ryan Allsop has started 14 league home matches for Birmingham this season, and conceded twice.
🦁 Not Lion down — Millwall came from behind to win a Championship fixture for the first time since October 2022, and have won as many away games in their last 6 attempts (W4 D1 L1) as they had in their previous 22 (W4 D8 L10).
🚌 Brucey on tour — Blackpool have won 6 of their last 11 away games in League One, having won only 7 in the whole of last season.
📉 Walsall’s woes — The Saddlers have taken just 10 points from their last 11 matches (0.91ppg), having collected 58 from their first 25 (2.32ppg).
☀️ Blue skies — Coventry have won five consecutive league games for the first time since February 2020, when they were in League One.
🏴 Millers crossing (the border) — Rotherham’s 1-0 defeat at the Racecourse means they still haven’t won a league game in Wales since beating Wrexham in September 2007, having failed to win in 10 attempts away at Cardiff (D3 L3) and Swansea (D1 L3).
😤 Ashton Hate — Hull have won just 1 of their 27 league games away at Bristol City since 1965 (D7 L19), with the exception coming in October 2012.
👀 The whites of their eyes — There were 22 shots in Derby v Blackburn (9 for Derby, 13 for Blackburn) and every single one was taken from inside the 18-yard box.
🎦 5ivelights
In no particular order, a collection of our favourite goals or clips from across the 72.
Bobby Dazzler — Thomas finishes like a-20 goal-a-season striker… cue limbs.
“Wahhheeeyyy!” — Josh Sheehan has the last laugh.
Rocket O’Riordan — Connor rifles in Crewe’s equaliser at Salford.
From one end to the other — Fleetwood score 10 seconds after clearing the ball off their own goal line!
Gee, Ali — A rocket from Smith in front of Maxwell.
The View From… Plough Lane
Mismatches Win Matches
Wimbledon vs Notts County had the feeling of a significant game: a record attendance at ‘New’ Plough Lane, 4th vs 5th, separated by one point in the table.
With both sides outside the Top 3 looking in, and with remaining matches dwindling, each possible result would have significance. As it happened, Wimbledon comfortably won 2-0 and increased their chances of automatic promotion by 10%.
Based on the average odds of four major bookmakers, Wimbledon jumped from a pre-match 30.8% implied probability of automatic promotion to 40.6%. For Notts, what was a 42.6% implied probability of automatic promotion is now at 34.2%.
When I go to a game, I like to study the team sheets beforehand and analyse different match-ups (either individual, tactical or team-wide) to try to pre-empt any mismatches. There are plenty of things that go into the winning or losing of a football match, but mismatches are often a key factor, and they come in different forms.
Here are some notes I took before the game:
Jatta vs Hutchinson
Joint-top scorer in the league, Jatta’s presence, size and movement could cause problems for Wimbledon if he can isolate or target 35-year-old Sam Hutchinson — starting only his 8th league game of the season and only infrequently used as a centre-back across his long career.
Bugiel vs Johnson
The aerially dominant, warrior-like Omar Bugiel might find some joy against 19-year-old CB Zak Johnson, on loan from Sunderland and making only his 5th EFL start.
Neufville vs LWB (and help)
Wimbledon RWB Josh Neufville has been a key player this season. His 1v1 quality is often their main attack-generator, and teams have had to double and triple team him at times this season, creating space elsewhere. With Conor Grant – an attacking midfielder by trade – lining up at LWB for Notts, any struggles from him could lead to overloads in Wimbledon’s favour.
Set pieces
Wimbledon with a set-piece goal difference of +3 heading into the game. Notts County’s? -5.
Physicality
Wimbledon are a physically impressive side with height and aerial prowess dotted throughout the team. While Notts have successfully added size and muscle to their defensive line this season, it’s still a team built with possession and technique in mind, rather than size, as seen in midfield: Palmer, Hinchy, Abbott, Whitaker. It’s not a team that screams ‘second balls’.
Substitutes
Johnnie Jackson had a nice spread of options: the attacking firepower of Joe Pigott, Josh Kelly and Osman Foyo; size and versatility in the form of Aaron Sasu; a solid central midfield option in Callum Maycock; and a sturdy CB in Riley Harbottle.
Stuart Maynard had a much less balanced selection: three wide players of different types and experience levels in Will Jarvis, Kellan Gordon and the academy player Madou Cisse, a midfielder in Curtis Edwards, and two CBs in Rod McDonald and Lewis Macari.
Key context here is the painful attacking absences of David McGoldrick and Jodi Jones, as well as Sam Austin and Jevani Brown, to Notts County’s side – not to mention the January departure of Dan Crowley.
Even so, this resembled more pro-Wimbledon mismatches than I had anticipated when cycling to the ground. And, while my pre-match mismatch matchmaking doesn’t always play out — for example, Hutchinson was unfazed up against Jatta, and Neufville didn’t have too many dangerous moments — many of the above mismatches were laid bare, immediately and comprehensively.
2nd minute: a cross into the box, headed wide by Wimbledon’s gangly midfielder Alistair Smith. Height: tick.
5th minute: Goodman goes long into Bugiel, who swats aside Johnson and chests it to Marcus Browne, who fires wide. Bugiel vs Johnson: tick.
21st minute: a Wimbledon corner, swung to the back post, headed in by Joe Lewis. Set pieces: tick.
0-2 down at half-time, Stuart Maynard used defensive substitutions to stop the bleeding, but had no recourse to impact the game with attacking substitutions. Substitutes: tick.
Wimbledon’s players flew into tackles, challenged for everything and played positively on the ball. The majority of them were visibly looking to impose themselves on the game, and most made their mark. Notts, by contrast, looked timid. Physicality: tick.
I stopped taking notes at 2-0. Is that good journalism? Probably not. But the game had been decided by that point, and a 10-minute pre-match mismatch dispatch had – as always – been time well spent. Try it yourself, the next time you’re watching a game as a neutral.
🏆 Fantasy Football
Go head-to-head against team NTT20 in our EFL Fantasy Football league
A half ‘n’ half weekend in ‘FEFL’. Cooper, Jones and our team picks are going well; Cirkin, Firpo, James and Adelakun, less so. Who are we kidding? It’s not great. But all have another fixture in midweek, so the story of Gameweek 31 is still only partly written.
As we battle to establish ourselves inside the Top 100 of the NTT20 league, we’re also developing a soft spot for league leader Mr Browne’s Boys, managed by J. Holton, who is second in the whole FEFL world but has some work to do to close the gap.
Keep going, JHolt. All of NTT20 is with you.