Championship relegation battle: club-by-club guide
Doing battle: Watford, Swansea, Millwall, Plymouth, Blackburn, Stoke, QPR, Birmingham, Huddersfield & Sheff Wed, Rotherham...and breathe!
For fans of the clubs involved, it’s horrible. For the rest of us, it’s highly entertaining.
According to Statman friend of NTT20, Peter Løhmann, the 9-point gap between 12th and 23rd has never been smaller after 37 matches of a Championship season since 1992.
Fans of EFL Clubs: we are not in hock to football cliché, this is an UNPRECEDENTED relegation battle in the Most Exciting League In The World™ with a record number of teams involved. This is worthy of your attention over the next eight weeks. And we’ve got you covered.
Famously, only three can go down. One of them, Rotherham, are a 99.9% certainty to drop. As for the other two, we reckon there is a group of ten teams with legitimate relegation jitters. Their fearful fans cannot possibly sip from the cup of rationality; thankfully NTT20.COM writers can.
We’ve got together to provide the best possible overview of this relegation battle. Asking why each club finds itself amongst the contenders for the drop, what’s the good news, what spells doom, and what could relegation mean?
Feast your eyes on this league table, then let’s get cracking.
Words: Watford (Ali Maxwell), Swansea (Matt Watts), Millwall (Sam Parry), Plymouth (Ali Maxwell), Blackburn (George Elek), Stoke (George Weaver), QPR (Huw Davies) Birmingham (Ryan Deeney), Huddersfield (Matt Watts), Sheffield Wednesday (Tom Bourke), Rotherham (Huw Davies).
WATFORD (14th)
Road to this point
A shambolic 2022/23 was followed by a poor start to this season — two wins in the first 11 games. Two months of strong results leading up to Christmas was a classic case of good form, false dawn. Having accrued the third-worst points return in the division since Christmas, Valérien Ismaël’s third Championship job came to an end. Tom Cleverley takes interim charge. Feel old?
Why they will stay up
Watford have 45 points with nine fixtures remaining, and eight of the ten teams beneath them would have to climb above them. Surely two wins will be enough.
The squad has a number of talented players. During the strong run between October and December, a nicely balanced 4-3-3 was found. A midfield of Livermore, Kayembe and Kone showed promise, and a front line involving three of Sema, Chakvetadze, Dennis, Bayo, Rajovic, Asprilla, and Martins has a much higher ceiling than shown so far.
If Cleverley can use his relationships with the players to connect with them, refocus, and provide a tactical framework for more coherent displays, the squad feels too good to go down.
Why they will go down
Because too good to go down is a fallacy — and it’s a squad that’s proven it’s capable of horrendous runs of results more so than consistency of performance.
Because their fixture list is brutal — Watford only have one fixture remaining against a team in the bottom half, the hardest schedule of any of the teams discussed, per SoccerSTATS.
Because there’s a strong chance Valérien Ismaël wasn’t the biggest issue.
Because the club feels untethered, directionless, and all belief in those making decisions has vanished.
Is there a tiny whiff of Hull City 2019/20 about the team? Yes. But it would still have to be an all-time shitting-of-the-bed for them to go down.
What relegation would mean
Dropping from Premier League to League One in two years, despite receiving tens of millions of pounds of parachute payments that provide a huge competitive advantage? Yeah, relegation would represent the most embarrassing under-performance by an English football club since Sunderland suffered back-to-back relegations from 2016-18.
It would mean likely fan mutiny against the Pozzo ownership, and a potentially volatile response. And, just as pressingly, the probable need to recruit a new manager and a new squad, with a recruitment team that currently doesn’t exist, during a period of anger and anguish.
SWANSEA (15th)
Road To This Point
Two poor runs of form, a more direct style of play and a defeat to Cardiff — as far as the Swansea fans were concerned, Michael Duff wasn’t made of the right stuff to manage their football club.
If Duff was a bad fit for the Swans, then Luke Williams would appear to be a good one. Having previously been assistant to Russell Martin, Williams returned to South Wales in January after a successful spell at Notts County where he won promotion to League Two and his team became renowned for their possession-based style of play. Swansea have taken 11 points from Williams’ first 11 league games in charge; however, this run has included fixtures against all of the Championship’s ‘Big Four’.
Why They Will Stay Up
Since losing to Leeds and Ipswich, Swansea have picked up seven points from their last four games. Under Williams, they’ve beaten Hull, Sunderland and Blackburn. There are currently six teams and five points between the Swans and the bottom three. Also, Swansea have still got to face six teams who are below them – including home games against QPR, Stoke, Rotherham and Millwall.
Why They Will Go Down
Back-to-back games against Sheffield Wednesday and QPR over the Easter weekend could be pivotal. While both are currently beneath Swansea in the league, they’ve been performing like top-half teams in 2024. It’s also worth noting that at a time when you want to be facing teams who are ‘on the beach’, the Swans have lots of games left against teams with something to play for.
What Relegation Would Mean
Swansea have several players who have excelled in the third tier and they would undoubtedly be one of the favourites to go up, but relegation to League One, ten years after taking on the likes of Valencia and Napoli in the Europa League, would be a bitter pill for everyone connected with the Welsh club to swallow.
MILLWALL (16th)
Road to this point
In the space of a single season, Millwall Football Club have endured the familiar and the unfamiliar, the tried and the untried, the new hope and the old. In July 2023, the passing of one of the EFL’s most beloved owners, John Berylson, carried with it both tremendous sadness and no deficit of uncertainty. Without wanting to trivialise those events, the season thereafter has been punctuated by instants of change, instability and changing instability.
Gary Rowett’s departure after 11 games (W4, D3, L4) signalled a change in tactical approach and footballing aspirations. His replacement, Joe Edwards, was of an altogether different profile: a bright young thing brought in on the intangible promise of “innovation” and “progression”. Spiralling form under Edwards (W4 D4 L10), coupled with an ever-narrowing gap to the relegation places, led to a final roll of the managerial dice: the return of Neil Harris.
Why they will go down
Whether you subscribe to “great man” theories of managerial bounces or not, Neil Harris has overseen an immediate up-tick in form with 3 wins and 1 draw taking them from 1 point above the relegation places to 5 points. But is that house built on much-improved performances?
In all four games, Millwall lost the xG battle (to Birmingham, Blackburn, Watford and Southampton). And that tallies up with a season-long trend of a team who struggle to create chances and score goals. With Leeds and WBA next up, they could easily be dragged back towards the drop, and what then?
Why they will stay up
Defensively, Harris’ hawkishness is Millwall’s best shield against relegation. Since he took the job, their expected goals against column is tracking closer to 0.5 than the season average of closer to 1. If they can keep that up, and keep oppositions to 0s and 1s, it keeps them in games and, probably, in the Championship for another season.
What relegation would mean
After experiencing a kind of collective trauma at the start of the season, relegation would feel that bit more painful, more acute and the ensuing volatility more pronounced. This is a club and manager who knows League One and understands that bouncing back after years in the Championship is no small task. Neil Harris brought Millwall into the second tier in 2017. And seven years on, he’s got nine games left to keep them there.
PLYMOUTH (17th)
Road to this point
All was calm in Devon until Head Coach Steven Schumacher ran off into the arms of Stoke City, a club battling with Argyle for second-tier status. When replacement Ian Foster was appointed, Argyle were 18th. The good news is that they are currently 17th, one place higher! The bad news is that a seven-point cushion to safety has been deflated to just three.
Why they will go down
Because Home Park is no longer a fortress. When Schumacher left, Argyle had accrued points lopsidedly: averaging 2ppg at home and 0.36pgg away from home. Under Foster, it’s just five points from five at home. The loss of that air of invincibility appears to have knocked confidence, though an improved level of competitiveness away from home (eight points from six games) should be noted.
Because Ian Foster isn’t Steven Schumacher, who was popular, and an excellent communicator who played exciting football. Foster’s more reserved demeanour and style of play haven’t filled the Schuey-shaped hole in fans’ hearts.
Because Morgan Whittaker’s form has dropped. This is a popular refrain, although his recent five-game goal drought — which was his fourth stretch of four games or more without scoring this season — is not out of character for a player who takes 62% of his shots from outside the box. It obscured the fact that his goal contribution, 0.61 goals and assists per 90 under Foster, matches his numbers under Schumacher: 0.58.
Why they will stay up
Because things aren’t as bad as they seem. The extent to which Ian Foster is being presented as a major downgrade isn’t backed up by actual results.
Under Schumacher, Argyle had the 16th best record in the league, losing 45% of their games and picking up 1.18ppg. Under Foster, they have had the 15th best record in the league, losing 45% of their games and picking up 1.09ppg.
Put another way: under Foster, Argyle have a better record than eight teams profiled in this piece.
The reality is that it’s the improved form and results of Sheffield Wednesday and Queens Park Rangers, and a poor points return in a brutal run of fixture, that has caused panic buttons to be smashed.
What relegation would mean…
The partial undoing of five years of upwards trajectory. The stress testing of the club’s measured, objective, data-driven approach. The confirmation that, even if you do almost everything right, there’s no guarantee of success. And, surely, the departure of Morgan Whittaker, not to mention others that have impressed at this level, such as Ryan Hardie.
BLACKBURN (18th)
Road to this point
Road? This isn’t a road. This is one of those rides at a theme park where you all sit strapped to a very tall tower, rising and rising until you nearly reach the top, only to plummet terrifyingly to the bottom.
On 1st December, when Blackburn were entering the ‘busy festive period’ in 7th place, their record up to that point was P18 W9 D1 L9, which maybe should have set alarm bells ringing. From which column would the inevitable Ds come? Could it be the L column, firing Rovers into the play-offs? No, it was the W column — they’ve won just two league games in 19 since.
Blackburn and Jon Dahl Tomasson’s February break-up was a slow and painful affair, a rare case of a manager scrambling to escape a sinking ship rather than being taken from the wheel and thrown overboard.
As soon as JDT’s resignation was accepted, John Eustace’s appointment was confirmed, in a move replacing chalk with cheese. The transition has, unsurprisingly, been an utter Stinking Bishop: no wins, five draws, two defeats in seven games.
The January transfer window was also a hot mess. Duncan McGuire was the Deadline Day headliner, announced to the fans only for the EFL to tell the club that he couldn’t be registered due to embarrassing paperwork issues.
They could really do with him, or Niall Ennis, who they allowed to leave for relegation rivals Stoke. Or Lewis Travis for that matter, who they allowed to leave for Ipswich on loan despite selling Adam Wharton for a large fee, seemingly none of which was reinvested into the squad.
Why they will stay up
They have the top goalscorer in the Championship, with Sammie Szmodics taking everyone by surprise with 21 goals. He remains in good form now, having scored in each of Rovers’ last three games.
Despite Eustace’s more defensive approach, Szmod is a master at springing a high line and has shown he is one of the best one-on-one finishers in the league. If he keeps scoring at this rate they might just keep their heads above water.
Why they will go down
Along with Watford, they have the toughest fixtures of any of the teams embroiled in this scrap. Ipswich, Southampton and Coventry all visit Ewood Park, with Blackburn’s only other home game against the buoyant Sheffield Wednesday.
On the road, Middlesbrough, Sunderland and Bristol City look tricky but no disaster, but then you see that their last two visits are to Leeds and, on final day, Leicester. Where do the points come from?
What relegation would mean
Blackburn have been relegated before under the Venky’s ownership and bounced straight back under Tony Mowbray with minimal fuss, but the off-field issues that seemed to trigger an on-field collapse have to raise some concerns, and the knives will be out for Eustace and Director of Football Gregg Broughton, as well as the unpopular and somewhat absent owners.
STOKE (19th)
Road to this point
Stoke have never finished in the top half since Premier League relegation in 2018, but this is only their second serious scrap for survival.
A positive pre-season vibe, fuelled by 18 shiny new signings, grew after wins against Rotherham and Watford. But it quickly gave way to groans. The side’s performances were passable, but mistakes in defence and woeful finishing meant the all-too-common ‘we lost in small moments’ trope returned, one that’s plagued every Stoke manager since time immemorial.
Alex Neil’s focus on fixing defensive issues led to a cautious, scrappy style, and four straight losses spelt the end in December. In came Schumacher, whose ‘shackles-off’ rhetoric seemed to be working, with Stoke unbeaten in his first five. But the problems returned with six losses from seven, and a drop into the bottom three.
The sacking of Technical Director Ricky Martin, replaced by fan-hero Jon Walters, alongside two battling wins recently seems to have brought back positive vibes.
Why they will stay up
The return of Josh Laurent from injury has been a huge boost, and alongside Wouter Burger and a revitalised Lewis Baker, it’s hard to remember a better Stoke midfield since 2016.
Add to that the attacking prowess of direct winger Million Manhoef, and the improvement of technically-excellent Bae Junho, and there seems enough, on paper, for Stoke to drag themselves out of the mire, although it may not be pretty.
Why they will go down
Stoke don’t score enough. Only Rotherham and Wednesday have scored fewer, with Own Goal currently their joint 2nd top scorer. Striker Ryan Mmaee, level with OGs on three, is returning from a disciplinary issue, while top scorer André Vidigal (5) only has one goal since October and zero in 2024.
What relegation would mean
Relegation would be a huge problem for Stoke. There are already murmurs about the efficiency of the owners’ investments since 2016. Having already sold the stadium and training ground to avoid P&S punishment, the League One salary cap could be a big problem. It would allow more transfer spend, but Stoke have proven that buying the league is not an option if the rest of your ducks aren’t in a row.
QPR (20th)
Road to this point
How far do you want to go back? QPR’s 2023/24 relegation battle really started three years ago.
After four consecutive bottom-half placings, QPR finished 9th in 2020/21 by averaging two points per game across the second half of the season, and with the money from Ebere Eze’s sale burning a hole in their pocket, the ownership got overexcited. Ahead of the 21/22 campaign, loanees Charlie Austin (32) and Stefan Johansen (30 but playing older) were retained on two- and three-year deals while Andre Gray (30) came in on a pricey loan. On January transfer deadline day, with QPR 4th, Jeff Hendrick joined the party on his 30th birthday. Then QPR collapsed, Mark Warburton left and there was nothing to show for the outlay.
No matter – in came Mick Beale with his own players, including 34-year-old Leon Balogun and several top academy talents. Then he left the club and those somewhat miffed players behind. Neil Critchley was hired and fired two months later. Gareth Ainsworth was given last summer’s transfer window and signed ‘culture guardians’ to raise dressing-room standards, including Asmir Begovic (36), Jack Colback (now 34 and regularly suspended or injured), Morgan Fox (now 30 and barely seen since September) and Steve Cook (32 and actually good this season). Then Ainsworth was sacked with the club on 8 points from 14 games, and Martí Cifuentes inherited a squad put together by four different managers and several conflicting voices at board level, with no money to spend in January.
So, yes, this has rather been coming.
Why they will stay up
They’re genuinely quite good now. Since Cifuentes’ arrival at the end of October, QPR have been a top-10 team in underlying performance terms, a top-12 team in results terms, and good enough to take points off the best teams – they won 2-1 at Leicester, drew 0-0 with Ipswich and hammered West Bromwich Albion 2-2 in a game they should’ve won. The defence is transformed, with only three Championship teams conceding fewer goals during Cifuentes’ tenure and only Leeds boasting a meaner non-penalty xG against. Finally, they’ve been improved by instant impacts from shrewd January signings.
In fact, if you were to put these 11 teams into their own league, QPR would be favourites to win it.
Why they will go down
For all that, they have two major millstones around their neck: a chronic lack of goals and a total inability to defend set-pieces. They've let in 27 goals under Cifuentes and more than half have been from set-piece situations. And, just to twist the knife, they’ve scored the joint-fewest set-piece goals this season as well as conceding the joint-most.
Also, while it’d be harsh to call Asmir Begovic a millstone in himself, he’s playing as if his feet are tied to one.
What relegation would mean
Embarrassment, but thankfully not disaster.
BIRMINGHAM (21st)
Road to this point
Where do we start? Over a decade of worrying about the long-term existence of Birmingham City looked to be over when successful businessman Tom Wagner completed a summer takeover and brought the likes of Tom Brady and Garry Cook on board for a new dawn.
Major surgery started off the pitch, but success has been indifferent on it. John Eustace quickly established a shape and style that worked — it really worked — but was discarded for Wayne Rooney. Rooney was charged with “creating an identity and clear ‘no fear’ playing style,” and after two wins, four draws and five losses, it was clear that style was missing, but also — and pretty crucially — substance too. Tony Mowbray looked like a safe pair of hands, easing fears around the fanbase, but his illness has coincided with another poor run of form.
Why they will stay up
Home form. Writing this on the back of an abysmal display and loss against Middlesbrough doesn't bode well but Blues have five home games in their remaining nine, including four or the next six. They've lost only five in front of their own fans, three of which have come against the top six and three under Rooney.
Also, know how. Blues have been in this situation more times than any club should and they've always found a way to survive. The fans kick into gear at St.Andrews and while the core of recent squads has been depleted, a number still remain.
Finally, Tony Mowbray should return for the run-in. Relying on a manager that has had to depart for personal reasons is precarious but there's a lot of love for Tony Mowbray, from players and fans alike. Mark Venus has confessed to missing the gaffer and his return will be most welcome.
Why they will go down
Because of board mismanagement. Tony Mowbray being required to miss a spell of the campaign due to personal reasons is unfortunate but it won't be the reason Blues succumb. The original managerial change was woefully handled and the playing squad have been pulled from pillar to post.
Because Blues signed players cast off by other clubs in the summer for cut-price transfer fees and put them on long-term deals in many cases. The other half of the squad are out of contract. Is there a huge need or desire for these players to step up for the club and their careers? Time will tell.
Because, if Mowbray is required to miss more time than originally planned, it could have a big effect. The loss of his presence, and ability to read people and in-game situations has been keenly felt.
What relegation would mean
Huge embarrassment but not the complete disaster it may have been in the past.
Garry Cook and Craig Gardner will have a lot to answer for the decisions they have made for on-field decisions, both in the transfer market and manager hiring process. It could also affect sponsorship and the club's ability to push forward having let the last of the Xuandong Ren era players leave.
However, the club are in a much, much better situation off the field. Relegation would come down to sporting and management failures (less disastrous) rather than genuine failures that make fans concerned for the future of the club (much more disastrous).
HUDDERSFIELD (22nd)
Road To This Point
From Warnock to Moore to Breitenreiter (with a dose of Worthington too), owner Kevin Nagle’s first season at Huddersfield Town has been eventful.
The American, who completed his takeover of the Terriers last summer, has quickly established himself as one of the more visible Championship owners. Unsurprisingly, the town wasn’t big enough for both Nagle and Neil Warnock, but Nagle’s decision to replace the 75-year-old with Darren Moore aged like milk in the Yorkshire sun.
Moore won just three of his 23 games in charge before his dismissal at the end of January. After Jon Worthington picked up six points from four games, former Paderborn and FC Zurich boss Andre Breitenreiter has come in to try and finish off the job. The German coach has a reputation for upsetting the odds and, while keeping Huddersfield in the Championship wouldn’t exactly be a shock, it would be a very important first step in trying to get the Terriers punching above their weight and competing at the right end of the league once more.
Why They Will Stay Up
Despite suffering back-to-back defeats, Huddersfield fans have seen enough in Breitenreiter’s first four games in charge (and Worthington’s spell in temporary charge) to suggest that the Terriers have enough about them. The underlying performance data over the last few months is impressive. Town still have to play five fellow relegation candidates – including a massive game against Rotherham on Saturday. Also, Huddersfield may be lacking Championship experience in the dugout, but many of the current squad were part of Neil Warnock’s side who successfully fought off relegation last season.
Why They Will Go Down
With nine games to go, Huddersfield sit beneath the dotted line and Danny Röhl’s resurgent Sheffield Wednesday are only behind them on goal difference. The Terriers have won one of their last five games and that victory over Watford looks less impressive by the week.
A few alarm bells will also be ringing after Town’s second-half collapse against West Brom on Sunday. The lack of goals from Huddersfield’s attacking players is also a cause for concern. Centre-back Michal Helik is the club’s top scorer in the Championship this season. This in itself isn’t an issue; after all, Helik possesses a serious goal threat, but only Delano Burgzorg (7) and Jack Rudoni (5) have scored over half of the Polish defender’s tally (9).
What Relegation Would Mean
Having been in the Premier League as recently as 2019 (and one game away from a return to the top flight as recently as 2022), relegation to League One would be a massive blow to the people of Huddersfield, but it wouldn’t necessarily come as a surprise.
If it hadn’t been for the intervention of Neil Warnock last year, the Terriers would most probably have been in the third tier this season. During the takeover negotiations, Kevin Nagle made it clear to Dean Hoyle that he would be happy to buy the club even if they were relegated to League One; therefore, you would like to think that the American would stick around and help them return to the Championship.
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY (23rd)
Road to this point
Sheffield Wednesday started the season with Xisco Muñoz in charge, by record the worst manager in the club’s history after 12 games in league and cup. When he was sacked in October, Wednesday were bottom with 2 points from 10 games and an immediate return to League One looked inevitable.
Alongside Muñoz, Chairman Dejphon Chansiri had interviewed one Danny Röhl for the top job after the messy dismissal of Darren Moore at the end of 2022/23. On that occasion, Chansiri overlooked the latter for the former, but in October he went back to the Röhl well, from which Wednesday have drunk deeply since.
Whilst it’s fair to say the majority of Wednesday fans are anti-Chansiri, they are all on board with Röhl, who has shown them some of the most entertaining and tactically astute football seen at Hillsborough in years. More importantly, he’s given them a genuine chance of survival.
Why they will go down
Wednesday’s ageing squad – the second oldest in the league according to Transfermarkt – are not all suited to Röhl’s relentless pressing style. Whilst Wednesday consistently start games well, performances tend to drop off in the second half, conceding 44% of their goals in the last half hour of games.
Playing once a week suits Wednesday. But as the fixture list becomes congested, The Owls’ results worsen, and that’s concerning considering they have five games in 16 days from the end of March to mid-April. Three of those fall against relegation rivals; lose them and Wednesday might be looking forward to Monday mornings in League One.
Why they will stay up
It’s simple really. Since Röhl took charge, he has turned Wednesday into a top-half team. If the season started on the 21st October 2023 (his first game as manager), Wednesday would be 10th and comfortably above all the other relegation runners and riders. They also head into the business end of the season in great form, winning 5 out of their last 7 matches. If it goes with form, it goes with Wednesday.
What relegation would mean
It would mean that Wednesday’s miraculous Play-Off promotion from League One last season was essentially for nothing. Röhl clearly has a bright future ahead of him, and no-one at Hillsborough would begrudge him from wriggling free from third tier football and Chansiri’s stewardship – that would surely happen.
Almost as troubling, for the first time in a long while Wednesday have some young, promising players that are assets of value. A drop to the third tier would see clubs circling around Dishon Bernard, Anthony Musaba and Bailey Cadamarteri.
Rotherham United (24th)
Road to this point
The scale of their failure to compete is the only surprise about Rotherham’s disastrous 2023-24 campaign because their budget makes them automatic favourites for the drop to League One – it’s to their credit, in fact, that they always bounce back. Last season was the first in seven years not to end in either promotion or relegation.
In this year’s Millers’ Tale, there was initially ambition: Matt Taylor was allowed to spend a seven-figure sum on Sam Nombe, while Cafu, Fred Onyedinma and Dexter Lembikisa came in from Premier League clubs. But Rotherham’s attack lacked the structure and individual quality to overcome a two-goal deficit in every game – and it really was virtually every game. When Taylor was sacked in November, they’d conceded 32 goals in 16 fixtures, keeping one clean sheet. And then they got worse.
After a month-long hunt for a successor, which didn’t suggest great forward planning, Leam Richardson was appointed. There’s been no discernible improvement in results: having dismissed Taylor with 11 points from 16 games, and hired Richardson on 13 from 20, Rotherham now have 19 from 37. The only hope is to avoid breaking their own record low points tally of 23, set in 2016/17.
Why they will stay up
Erm. Well, if they win out from here they’ll have a point per game. Failing that, The Rapture.
Why they will go down
Because they have half as many points as the team directly above them.
What relegation would will mean
Rotherham have been here before. Richardson will likely be seen as a good coach to lead a promotion bid from League One. But he needs to stop losing games 5-0 in the Championship first.
Love these! Would like to see one in the L1 promotion race
Great format, more please