Championship relegation fight, sick Burn for Sunderland, Barrow hit the sack, and Ali Maxwell on Carlisle's Transfer-mation
20 January 2025 | Weekend Notes brings you the biggest stories, stats and insights from the EFL weekend.
● BIG STORIES ● CHEAT SHEET ● 5IVELIGHTS ● THE VIEW FROM ● FANTASY FOOTBALL ● WATCHING BRIEF ●
“I am 100% sure that we’re not completely sure.”
So said Jerry Horne in David Lynch’s Twin Peaks. I’ve started re-watching the greatest and most influential TV series since news of Lynch’s passing. It’s strange, beguiling and poses more questions than answers — not unlike the EFL.
Today, we can look upon the league table, confident in our assumptions about which teams will end up where. And yet, every season there is a surprise. Every season, there are late rallies and last-gasp shocks. In the Championship, there are four clubs in the automatic battle, at least 10 teams capable of ending up in the play-offs, and then the whole bottom half could involve themselves in a relegation race should a bad run come their way.
The point is this: there is no certainty. With more than 20 games left to play, we cannot answer the questions of tomorrow with the evidence of today. Fun to try, though. And we’ll be trying until the earth explodes - our next attempt? The return of the Under The Lights podcast, with a massive midweek Championship slate.
Welcome to Weekend Notes.
🚨 Big Stories
A selection of decisive moments from across the EFL.
🔥 Sick Burn — Burnley 0-0 Sunderland — It certainly stung. After this draw, Sunderland have won just one in eight away games. The directorial debut of new signing Enzo Le Fée was a bright spark dampened: his wonderful pass, moments into the second half, gave Wilson Isidor the chance to break the deadlock, but the post denied him. It was James Trafford, though, who assumed the role of the great denier with two extraordinary penalty saves, both from Isidor, on 86’ and 90+5’. The Frenchman spent the final moments a bereft wanderer. What might it cost the Black Cats in points and Isidor in confidence? As for Burnley, they have the Championship’s best away record and this point makes them the best performers against the rest of the top four, with a record of W2 D1 L1. They’ve conceded a goal every three games on average this season. Mad.
🎪 Marquis Moments — Shrewsbury 2-1 Wrexham — Despite Wrexham’s stark contrast in home (2.71 ppg) and away form (1.08 ppg), this was still 22nd vs 3rd. Shrewsbury brought the muscle, with George Lloyd flicking on for John Marquis, the 32-year-old hero of this piece. Marquis may not be the prolific scorer he once was, but his clinical finish put Shrews ahead. The game was an arm wrestle decided by fine margins: duels 61-60, shots on target 3-2, and headers 32-29 in favour of the home side. Though a pinpoint Ryan Barnett cross set up Steven Fletcher for Wrexham’s equaliser, Shrewsbury battled to win 2-1. Their winner came after Eoghan O’Connell fouled Lloyd in the box as Wrexham tried playing out from the back – Marquis had his penalty saved but scored the rebound. It’s only two wins in eight for Shrews, but this hard-fought victory offers momentum, a foothold, and a confidence-boosting performance from their frontmen.
🛞 No clemency as Barrow hit the sack — Swindon 2-0 Barrow — Barrow’s wobbling front wheel has finally led the board down the path of a sacking. No longer “Stephen Clemence’s side”, they have won one league game since October 5th. That’s 15 matches — a third of the season — in which they’ve taken 9 points (W1 D6 L8). Clemence wasn’t shown any clemency after a two-goal defeat to fellow strugglers Swindon Town, and the question remains: who can put the wheels back on Barrow’s survival bid?
2️⃣0️⃣ The Championship’s Roaring Twenties
It’s worth considering the results of the bottom seven in context. Most of them won. And the wins were big wins, good wins. But the losses were big losses, bad losses. Between them, the teams in the twenties have won 10 games out of their last 35, but they can take heart from the QPR* example (see caveat below): after 18 games, Martí Cifuentes’ side had just 15 points. Now, 11 games later, they’re in the top half on 35.
18th — West Brom 1-1 STOKE | LLWDDD | 28pts
19th — DERBY 0-2 Watford | LWLLLL | 27pts
20th — CARDIFF 3-0 Swansea | LWDDDW | 27pts
21st — Millwall 0-1 HULL | WLWLDW | 26pts
22nd — PORTSMOUTH 2-1 Middlesborough | LLWLLW | 26pts
23rd — LUTON 0-0 Preston North End | WLLLLD | 26pts
24th — ARGYLE 0-1 QPR | LLDDDL | 21pts
🚣 *Should we call that “The Oxford Example”? — Oxford 1-0 Blackburn — Since Rowett took up the cox position, the big yellow barge has been racing along. Boat Race puns might be clichéd, but the U’s don’t look worn out: they were the better side against Blackburn, and a lovely Cam Brannagan free-kick grabbed the points. That makes it four wins and two draws to extend the new manager’s unbeaten run. And what a run! Oxford have picked up 44% of their season’s points during his month-long tenure – they’re now closer in points and places to the top 10 than the bottom 3.
⚽ Lowe and behold! Nathan Lowe, fresh off the back of 15 goals in 22 League Two appearances for Walsall, returned to Stoke and scored inside 10 minutes. It was an important contribution given Tom Cannon returned to Leicester this week. The Potters were peppered with shots, mostly from outside the area, but clung on for a solid point at The Hawthorns.
🛑 Derby were one of the big losers. With the opportunity to give themselves breathing space, they were undone inside the opening 5 minutes when Imran Louza scored for Watford. Edo Kayembe netted on the break while the Rams hit the post three times and posed a real set-piece threat; still, no cigar – not even a vape – for them. Sandwiched between ties against Sunderland and Sheffield United, Paul Warne’s side travel to Cardiff – huge pressure on that one.
⛔ There were two more losers. Luton had Matt Bloomfield in the dugout for the first time and their 0-0 draw with Preston stopped the rot of four straight defeats. They limited PNE to almost nothing, at least. Big game up next against in-form Oxford. But the biggest losers were Argyle, now winless in 13. The relegation pack is tightly bunched. And while a 1-0 defeat at home to QPR hasn’t quite cut them adrift just yet, you imagine the picture will look much less rosy after three back-to-back games against top-six opposition: Burnley, Sunderland and West Brom.
🤑 Ritchie’s Sunak late knack crowned our first big winner. Portsmouth pipped Boro 2-1 after going 1-0 down in the first half. Matt Ritchie scored both of them, in a superb second period where Pompey really put it on their opponents. The manner of the comeback win will be hugely encouraging. But Pompey need bodies and quality additions fast if they are to build on this result. Owner Michael Eisner was in the stands; will that signal the opening of the chequebook?
🌪️ Cardiff won the South Wales derby in a 20-minute blur of brilliance thanks to Callum Robinson. The fourth player to hit 10 non-penalty goals in the Championship, Robinson’s finishes were sumptuous and deadly; he became the first player to score in both in-season derby fixtures since Ross McCormack in 2008/09. The points were already bagged when Omer Riza was sent off for a fracas with Swansea’s Goncalo Franco. The Cardiff manager’s father died during the week, and the fans hailed his marching orders with a rendition of “This one's for your dad”.
⤴️ The Hull revival took another step in the right direction with a 1-0 away win over Millwall. Eight points from seven league games under Rubén Sellés (W2 D2 L3) is a big improvement on 6 points from the 12 games prior. Perhaps the real story here is Millwall. With only one win in 12 games and just one on the road all season, there’s a merry drain-circling dance happening here, and we all know the Threadbare Thirties followed the Roaring Twenties. What happens next?
🛣️ The Cumbrian Way — Carlisle 0-1 Bradford — Ali has revisited a much-changed Carlisle as the subject of this week’s View From. The question: can you buy survival?
📊 Monday Morning Cheat Sheet
From the WhatsApp group to the watercooler: stats to keep you ahead of the game.
🫥 Lowe mood? — Wouldn’t have thought so. Shorn of their top-scoring striker, Walsall’s win over MK Dons saw the Saddlers hit 25 shots and rack up their second-highest xG total of the season (3.31). They have now registered their first 9-game winning streak in the EFL, with an aggregate 22-6 scoreline.
🕹️ Control freaks — Birmingham City continue to control the controllable, winning 1-0 in a game where opponents Exeter had 0 shots and 0 touches in the opposition box. The Blues, for their part, only had three shots on target, but they only needed one to cross the line to make it 26 points from their last 10 games.
✨ A brimful of spark for Gillingham — They lost 1-0 to Doncaster, but Gills fans saw a home debut for Asher Agbinone that brings cause for optimism. The Palace loanee was a twisting-turning ball of power and pace, without the end product to boot. He’s learning in League Two for a reason, but the Wilf Zaha comparisons don’t look too wide of the mark, even if his shooting was.
🍺 SHandy Bass — In League Two, no goalkeeper has a better record across save percentage (77.6%), saves per 90 (3.6) nor goals prevented (3.8) than Notts County’s Alex Bass.
💊 Get that man an aspirin — In Lincoln’s 1-0 over Northampton, centre-back Paudie O’Connor made 27 clearances, 21 of which here headers. Ouch.
⚖️ Slim pickings on the Adkins Diet — Following a defeat to Wimbledon, Tranmere have lost seven away league games in a row.
❤️ Hume is where the heart is — No doubt that the beating heart of Grimsby’s attacking verve is Denver Hume. He ranks no.1 for big chances created in League Two this season (12) and tops the assist charts with 9.
🗓️ Calendar Madness — Fleetwood's victory at Salford at the weekend wasn’t just their first win of 2025, but was their first game since New Year’s Day! Blame the snow.
⚪ Let the Yorkshire see the Pudding — Following their 3-0 home win over Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds are unbeaten across their last 17 league games against fellow Yorkshire sides (W12 D5). They’re also top of the league.
🥸 Blackburn v Newly Promoted Teams (A) — In October 2020, Rovers thrashed Coventry 4-0 at St Andrew’s. Later that season, they lost 1-0 at Wycombe and drew 1-1 at Rotherham. And since then, they’ve lost on each and every one of their last 10 visits to a newly promoted side: in order, that’s Blackpool, Hull, Posh, Wigan, Sunderland, Rotherham, Argyle, Ipswich, Wednesday and now Oxford. How generous.
🎦 5ivelights
In no particular order, a collection of our favourite goals or clips from across the 72.
OldYoung Trafford theatrics sinks Sunderland dream — double penalty save.Fans’-eye-view of Abbott’s outrageous corner routine for Notts.
Wham, Bam, Cam Bran’s Free-kick Slam — U’s winner against Blackburn.
Harrison, Bramall Lane is made for you. Oh, Harrison — his aim is true.
Un, deux, trois, quatre, cinq, six, sept, huit, Neufville puts Dons on Cloud 9.
The View From…
On 14 October 2024, I wrote about Carlisle for The View From, writing about “a complete mismatch on a tactical level and a physical level” as they lost 4-0 at Wimbledon. Carlisle had “very little about them”, which I put down to an awkwardness between the composition of their squad and the new style of play being implemented by Mike Williamson. I discussed the risk of waiting to fix it in January, given there were a dozen games or so until the window opened. Sure enough, January arrived with Carlisle bottom of League Two.
Having signed an EFL-leading EIGHT players since January 1st, and with six of them in the starting XI, I watched their home game against Bradford to check out this Carlisle transfer-mation, hoping to see some green shoots and an early answer to the question: can you buy survival?
Carlisle lost 0-1 to Bradford. Now, there are two teams in every game, and Bradford are a good one – a promotion contender – so let’s focus on the performance rather than getting bogged down on a result that leaves them seven points from safety.
First, the positives. It wasn’t an easy game for Bradford, as it was for Wimbledon in October; not a complete mismatch, although again it was Carlisle’s opposition that looked stronger on a physical level, which was a key factor in the result.
There’s no doubt that, for a Mike Williamson 3-4-2-1, the starting XI looks a lot better now on paper, and slightly better on the pitch. There are round pegs in round holes, particularly in the two no.10 roles (Elliot Embleton and Stephen Wearne) and in the profiles of the deeper midfielders (Will Patching and Callum Whelan).
Left-sided defender Charlie McArthur, on loan from Newcastle, offered far more ball progression than Sam Lavelle and Ben Barclay, but did lose a key aerial duel in the build-up to Bradford’s goal. Wing-backs Jordan Jones and Kadeem Harris have the über-attacking profiles that Williamson wants from players in that role, and both looked energetic, willing and able to make things happen.
That’s where my list of positives ends.
Harris’ and Jones’ energy stood out in part because the team as a whole feels pedestrian, lethargic, and lacking vim or dynamism. It’s a team that still fails to achieve any of the targeted benefits of a short passing style. Carlisle find it incredibly difficult to create chances, but it’s not just a final third issue — there’s an issue getting to, and staying in, the final third.
In the screenshot below, which shows the location of Carlisle’s passes in the game, the issue is laid bare: plenty of passes in completely unthreatening areas, but next to nothing within 25 yards of the goal. Despite a lot of width in the defensive and middle third, there’s little resembling dangerous wing play at or near the byline.
A repeated snapshot from this match was as follows: Carlisle play short from a goal kick, complete a few passes with decreasing confidence, and then go long to Joe Hugill with no one near him. Hugill, who joined the club only the previous day, contested 17 aerial duels and won two of them.
There are dozens of words to use for what Carlisle are lacking in an attacking sense. Progression, coherence, confidence, fluidity, imagination, speed, creativity, intensity – that’s eight, for starters. They have scored 6 open-play goals in 19 league games under Mike Williamson. Unless that changes dramatically, they’re going down. In the 3-2-5 attacking shape that’s meant to appear in this system, a front five of Harris, Embleton, Scott/Hugill, Wearne and Jones should work well. But even discussing that feels like getting ahead of myself. The team isn’t spending enough time in the attacking third for that front five to thrive.
Carlisle are not an incoherent mess defensively — they’ve conceded two goals or more only twice in the last 12 matches. But, too often, they are weak in individual moments. And it was in sharp focus as all three of the centre-backs made individual errors either in the build-up both to Bradford’s goal or an earlier opportunity for Alex Pattison.
I went into this game hoping to see signs that would make me think survival is on the cards, and I didn’t see nearly enough. However, there are still 21 matches to play, when points gaps down the bottom vanish quickly after a patch of good form, and it’s a lot to ask for an entirely new team of players to gel immediately. Perhaps I’ll revisit this after the Colchester or Gillingham games in February…
🏆 Fantasy Football
Go head-to-head against team NTT20 in our EFL Fantasy Football league
It was a low-scoring game week, with the highest points tally coming from the economically named Smith’s XI (79). A solid enough 64-point haul for Team NTT20 this time around, with a poor club and captain pick letting the side down.
At the top, Mr Browne's Boys lead overall. But this is a double game week for some clubs. With another round of midweek fixtures to come, there’ll be some warp and weft before next we speak.
📺 Watching Brief
Upcoming live EFL games
Tuesday 21 January 21
19:45 Blackburn vs Coventry, Derby vs Sunderland, Hull vs QPR, Middlesbrough vs West Brom, Oxford vs Luton, Swansea vs Sheff Utd, Watford vs Preston, Wigan vs Burton
20:00 Millwall vs Cardiff
Wednesday 22 January
19:45 Leeds vs Norwich, Portsmouth vs Stoke, Sheff Wed vs Bristol City
20:00 Plymouth vs Burnley
Thursday 23 January
20:00 Wrexham vs Birmingham
Friday 24 January
20:00 Sheffield United vs Hull
Saturday 25 January (12:30)
CH: Luton vs Millwall, Norwich vs Swansea, Stoke vs Oxford
L1: Cambridge vs Mansfield, Huddersfield vs Bolton
L2: Bradford vs Walsall, MK Dons vs AFC Wimbledon