Dear Ali & George... a Maxwell mailbag
"Pure SkyBet" moments. Which league has the biggest quality gap? Top EFL grounds. And more answers to more of your questions.
Ali Maxwell
Sadly, our scheduling situation made recording together this week impossible. So let’s kick it old school — mailbag anyone?
I cannot tell you how much I love answering written mailbag questions. I cannot put my finger on why. But I find the whole process to be a heady cocktail of catharsis and fun. It’s probably because you ask such good questions. The kinds of things that force me into new thought patterns. So here you go. A lot of words in response to some bangers.
Adam asks: Which EFL league has the biggest quality gap between the sides at the top of it and the sides at the bottom of it? And alternatively, which league has the smallest quality gap between the sides at the top and the bottom?
Great question that instigated a lovely thought exercise. Thanks, Adam.
The instinctive answer is to say that the Championship has the biggest quality gap between the top and bottom sides. Think of Leicester City and Rotherham United in 1st and 24. There are 62 points between them. The equivalent gaps in League One and League Two are 53 points and 40 points.
It also makes sense to pick the Championship because of the financial landscape. Due to parachute payments, the Championship has by far the largest range of playing budgets, wage bills and transfer spends. As an effect, the difference in quality of players and managers for the top and bottom teams in the Championship is wider than in League One and League Two. It stands to reason that the quality gap between the best and worst teams would be larger than in League One and League Two, where the wealth gap is smaller, right?
But the bottom of the Championship is not just Rotherham United. And, famously, we have a remarkable relegation picture on our hands because the teams near the bottom are much more competent than your normal Championship basement dwellers — though it may not feel like that for fans of those teams!
Everyone other than Rotherham has, over the course of the season, been good enough to pick up at least one point per game on average. That’s unusual. Championship clubs have been smarter in their recruitment in recent years, and the quality of managers is stronger than ever. This is reflected, I think, in what we’re seeing at the bottom.
Let’s explore other ways of answering this question. My chosen option is to look at the results of the Top 4 against the Bottom 4 teams. This way you are not just relying on the extremity of each division (comparing 1st vs 24th) which could provide noisy results.
You’d expect the top teams to have a strong record against cannon fodder in any division, and that is indeed the case. But the results may surprise you...
In the Championship, the Top 4 are Leicester, Ipswich, Leeds and Southampton. The bottom 4, right now, are Rotherham, Sheffield Wednesday, Stoke and Huddersfield. In matches where a Top 4 side has played a bottom 4 side, the record is:
17 wins, 9 draws, 1 defeat. 60 points from 27 games. 2.22 points per game. 63% win rate.
In League One, when Portsmouth, Bolton, Derby and Barnsley have played Carlisle, Port Vale, Fleetwood and Cheltenham, their record is:
22 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats. 70 points from 28 games. 2.5 points per game. 79% win rate.
In League Two, when Mansfield, Stockport, Wrexham and Crewe have played Sutton, Forest Green, Colchester and Grimsby, their record is:
14 wins, 5 draws, 1 defeat. 47 points from 20 games. 2.35 points per game. 70% win rate.
Those results may surprise those who, like me, assume the gap is biggest in the Championship. Based on this season’s results between the best and worst four teams in the division, it’s actually the most competitive — it’s the league where the Top 4 have had the toughest time against the Bottom 4. Of course, that’s only one way to skin the cat, one way to answer the question.
But let’s agree that, based on results, the biggest gap is in League One this season.
Interesting! Thanks for coming on that journey with me.
Joe: Dear Ali & George, Football Twitter always talks about “pure Barclays” or “football ‘eritage”. So since doing the pod, which moment (if you can pick one) from each league is your pick for “pure SkyBet” or “EFL ‘eritage”. Bit of a loose one but room for some creativity. Cheers 😄
It’s rare that I would answer a question without doing any research, but I think the very nature of this question demands it. I’m worried I may forget something obvious, but I guess if you have to think too hard about it, it can’t be Pure SkyBet, can it?
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to NTT20.COM to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.