Derby's FourWarneing, Cov look cross, popcorn for Posh, and the Buck stops at Oxford...
16 December 2024 | Weekend Notes brings you the biggest stories, stats and insights from the EFL weekend
● BIG STORIES ● CHEAT SHEET ● 5IVELIGHTS ● THE VIEW FROM ● FANTASY FOOTBALL ● WATCHING BRIEF ●
Starlings in the slipstream…
We’ve arrived at a familiar seasonal juncture — that one. You know it well. The big inhale before the breathless chaos of the Christmas period.
The season comes at you fast, with teams moving and narratives shifting like starlings in the slipstream. Sure, you can take in the whirling murmuration as one lingering body of work. But let’s have it right: it’s hard to keep across the individual trajectories (such as Bristol Rovers sacking Matt Taylor late on Sunday after their 2-0 defeat to Birmingham, which was not entirely surprising given that it was their 25th loss in 45 league games (W16 D6 L25), with FotMob having them registering the joint worst xG against and 3rd worst xG for… I digress!).
Anyhow, fear not. NTT20 — and today’s Weekend Notes — are here to map it all out, including a View From… that charts a weekend of mardy post-match managers.
🚨 Big Stories
A selection of decisive moments from across the EFL.
💔 Des Buck stops here — Oxford 1-3 Sheffield Wednesday — Having seen off Tim Walter just a few weeks earlier by beating Hull, Wednesday claimed another scalp as Oxford chose to sack Des Buckingham after this. Greg Leigh put the Yellows ahead but the visitors struck thrice, peaking with an excellent team goal that Djeidi Gassama put away with the dictionary definition of a sumptuous finish. George will dissect the defenestration of Des on the Monday pod (boy, will he) but for all of the decision’s faults or merits, it is primarily a sad end to a wonderful story of a local boy done good.
🚨 FourWarneing — Derby 4-0 Portsmouth — Two promoted teams met with contrasting formlines: Derby’s tally tailing off, while Pompey had just gone WDWD. So, inevitably this was a dominant home win for Derby, winning the shot battle 17 to 3. Nathaniel Mendez-Laing was superb, with two of the four goals coming from his tireless efforts down the left wing. It was just desserts for Paul Warne:
"In the last three games I've been proud of each performance, but obviously this one gets headlines because we have won."
🚆 Away the lads — Swansea 2-3 Sunderland — This was a huge comeback win for Sunderland. Two goals down after 17 minutes, the away end must’ve felt bleak. Yet the Black Cats were imperious — three goals and a beauty of a leveller — and more importantly, they were impervious, not conceding a single shot after the 48th minute despite having to close out Jobe Bellingham’s winner for the last quarter of the game.
🗞️ Crossworks — Coventry 2-1 Hull — The new-ish kids on the Championship block faced off and Ruben Selles’ Hull took the lead against the run of play, but they didn’t wrestle momentum from the Sky Blues. Since Frank Lampard took charge, Coventry have attempted 104 crosses (23 + 21 + 25 + 35). Victor Torp whipped a beauty into Ephron Mason-Clark, who knew little about his finish, but Torp’s technique was not so hot when taking and penalty and seeing it saved. No matter. If wing play be the food of love, cross on: Mason-Clark did, and Jack Rudoni headed in for 2-1. No, but seriously… Cov look strong.
🥧 Wigan pie, meet Evatt’s face — Bolton 0-2 Wigan — It’s not so much the Toughsheet as Easy Street for the Latics when they go up the road to face Ian Evatt’s team: in three League One visits, they’ve scored 10, conceded none and won all three. Thelo Aasgaard did the damage here, setting up Dale Taylor before beautifully taking a goal of his own. The Bolton gaffer’s abrasive presser indicated the huge pressure he’s facing from above and below, from boardroom and stands, and to make matters worse, they’re away at league leaders Wycombe next.
🍿 Red carpet before Posh make it box office — Peterborough 4-3 Crawley — Fun fun fun… Props to Crawley here, as they slipped into the relegation zone but in the most positive frame of mind possible—what might’ve been? Posh were clinical, going 2-0 and 3-1 up, but Rob Elliot’s side came back, not crawling, but flying. Will Swan and Rushian Hepburn-Murphy racked up 0.92 xG between them in the second half but scored only one of their six efforts inside the box. Still, they clawed it back to 3-3. That left Cian Hayes, who had already scored his first EFL goal for Posh, to nab his second in emphatic fashion on ‘61. Seven goals in just over an hour! Posh saw it out relatively comfortably after that.
🥧 WHERE ARE ALL THE BLOODY GOALS, LEAGUE TWO? — Not a single one of the basement division’s 3pm fixtures had both teams score, with the 9 games bringing just 10 goals. The two lunchtime kick-offs did at least bring League Two’s weekend average up to 1.45 per game. Meanwhile, the Championship and League One had 2.9 and 3 goals per game respectively, despite two goalless draws. Well done, have a biscuit.
🛩️ Under the Radarish — Salford 3-0 Notts County — At least there were a few goals in Salford. Karl Robinson’s side is overdue a bit of recognition for an uptick in results since October. Three-zip here was a statement win, with Cole Stockon (2 goals) doing what he does best, and giving the Ammies cause for optimism over Christmas. As for Notts, they’ve lost more games (3) in their last four fixtures than they did in their first 15 (2).
📊 Monday Morning Cheat Sheet
From the WhatsApp group to the watercooler: stats to keep you ahead of the game.
👀 Run-in watch — Which sides have the toughest and easiest Christmas period based on their opponents’ records at home and away this season?
Championship — WBA’s next 4 games = 2.06 ppg | Coventry’s = 0.85 ppg
League One — Stockport’s next 4 games = 1.77 ppg | Leyton Orient = 0.99 ppg
League Two — Bradford’s next 4 games = 1.73 ppg | Tranmere = 0.88 ppg
🔥 Burnley after reading — It’s seared on your retinas anyway by now: Burnley scoring goals and winning games despite creating all too few clear-cut chances. But do they need to create? Not when Zian Flemming and Josh Brownhill can chip in with goals from a cumulative team xG of 0.46. Three points in a 2-1 win for them on Sunday is what matters, but they’re 20th for xG per 90 in the Championship.
🔮 Read the roon — Not looking good for Wazza and Argyle despite a spirited performance at Bramall Lane. Now, among all Championship managers to have managed 50+ away games since 2004-05, Rooney has lost the highest percentage of those (39/58 – 67%). It’s also Argyle’s worst start to a league campaign since Margaret Thatcher came to power.
🏠 Home Alone — Sheffield United have now won 9 consecutive home games without conceding, becoming the first side to achieve that feat in the top four tiers since Chelsea in 2010 (the all-time record is Manchester United with 12).
🏚️ Home Alone 2 — Morecambe are the only side in the EFL yet to win at home this season. They are joint bottom on 14 points.
🏘️ Crowded House — Following their 4-3 win, Peterborough have scored the most home goals in League One this season (25) while conceding the second-most (19).
🔔 Jingle all away — No Championship side has won more away games since the start of October than Sheffield Wednesday (W5 D1 L1), taking them to 10 league away wins in total during 2024.
✂️ Crewe making the cut — Crewe are now 11 games unbeaten in League Two (W5 D6), it’s their longest run without defeat in the league since 2012.
💀 Double the horror! — Luton have lost each of their last seven Championship away matches, conceding 22 goals. Their latest defeat to Blackburn wasn’t helped by Liam Walsh making an awful tackle 13 minutes into a substitute appearance, earning him a second substitute-red-card of the season and the ire of captain Carlton Morris, who shoved him towards the cold tap of the early bath.
🛑 Sick of being pushed around — Barrow are wheeling themselves the wrong way down the table; they may have points on the board, but it’s no win in 9 (D4 L5).
🌻 Bloomin’!… — Matt Bloomfield’s Wycombe have 43 points from their opening 19 league games this season, which is their highest-ever points tally at this stage of any Football League campaign.
🤯 …‘Eck! — Preston manager Paul Heckingbottom has never lost to a side he has previously managed, and only narrowly lost out on a 100% winning record against former clubs with a late Leeds equaliser on Saturday.
🤝 Ali’s Pally — Ali has been saying Col U will be alright all season… well, they’ve now kept a fourth straight clean sheet, their longest such run in the league for a decade.
🎦 5ivelights
In no particular order, a collection of our favourite goals or clips from across the 72.
Thriller: Flemming using his most powerful gadget to get Burnley level.
Return to sender — Swansea lost, but only after Liam Cullen hit the postage stamp with this free-kick.
Cometh the hour, cometh the Dan—Neil smacks home a Sunderland leveller.
Heading for the line! Surely it’s out? Inspiration and adaptation from ‘The Arkell’ Jude-Boyd.
First the worst? Nope! QPR equalised with their first shot of the game on 65’ in a 1-1 draw with Bristol City. How did Paul Smyth do this? No spoilers. Watch it.
The View From… Mardy Managers
Stokey Mard #1 — Narcís Pèlach watched his side and saw A Knight’s Tale, identifying duels, we reckon, as the big problem for Stoke after their 2-2 draw with Cardiff:
"In football you have to win your duels… We lost plenty of them. Plenty of them… In my opinion, there are 60 duels in a game, 60 second-balls in a game, and you have to win at least 30 to be competitive… The truth is that we didn't win duels and we didn't win second balls and then that's why you have this mood."
Mardy Swan — Luke Williams didn’t like the creeping doubt, nor Swansea’s defeat from 2-0 up against Sunderland, nor the whiff of it all:
“There was a lot of doubt – it stank of it. I could feel it coming off the pitch into the technical area.”
Mardy Trotter — Ian Evatt didn’t like the angle of questioning after Bolton lost at home to Wigan (again), and he didn’t like his players’ displays all that much, either:
“The pressure and stress of this game obviously is too much for some, and we didn’t do anything well in the first half. We looked frightened. We looked timid in possession. We looked scared of our own shadows.”
Mardy Farke-r — The usually friendly Daniel Farke took issue with a member of Preston’s backroom staff, despite Leeds grabbing a vital late point at Deepdale:
“…I want to talk to the fourth official, and a member of the opponents’ coaching staff wants to get me away. I thought this was respectless. I would have had an argument with Paul [Heckingbottom] but it’s not possible that a member I don’t know – I didn’t know his name; maybe he was the coach driver – tells me I should sit. As manager of Leeds United, 200 games, I have achieved a bit.”
Mardy Dave — And here’s Stockport gaffer Dave Challinor, answering the first question of his post-match interview following a 2-1 defeat at Stevenage:
“The second half was an absolute shambles… No bravery to play, didn’t want to get on the ball, then just wanted to whack the ball from end to the other, and we made constantly bad, bad decisions.”
Mardy Bum — Meanwhile, relegation-threatened Swindon have picked up the second-fewest points in League Two over the past six games, and Ian Holloway took a pop at one fan — on the pitch and down the barrel of the camera — after their latest away defeat, at Bradford:
“I’m looking right at you. You weren’t very happy and you didn’t make me very happy, because you’re not helping. And anybody else who was around him – am I going to give you a cherry for coming up here? No, that’s your choice. It’s my choice to be here. And I want people who are going to actually cheer us on.”
Brenty Bum — Finally, Neil Harris – who lost his final game in charge of Millwall after an objectively successful second spell as manager – gave some parting words that weren’t mardy, as such, but more than a little bit Brent:
"It's been difficult for the lads because they're losing their leader and it's difficult for them to understand why, and where they're going next. We've tried to bridge that gap with humility, honesty and love, as I care about the players – they're really good lads."
🏆 Fantasy Football
Go head-to-head against team NTT20 in our EFL Fantasy Football league
Matt was in the dugout. Picture it, resplendent in his NTT20 t-shirt, hoodie and beanie. He puts out this side with not one but two 0% picks (Keeley and Imray).
Wahay. Another solid tally for Team NTT20 and those 70 points take us within a whisker of top-half mediocrity. Latte (Lath) To Go has reached the summit of the NTT20 league, with The 8th Man racking up a high of 85 points in this game week.
📺 Watching Brief
Upcoming live EFL games
Friday 20 December
20:00 Luton vs Derby
Saturday 21 December
12:30 Hull vs Swansea, Portsmouth vs Coventry & Sheff Wed vs Stoke, Bristol Rovers vs Wrexham & Lincoln vs Reading, Barrow vs Fleetwood & Doncaster vs Tranmere
Sunday 22 December
15:00 West Brom vs Bristol City