EFL Mailbag: Blades takeover, Boro play-off tilt, 3pm blackout

Plus your questions answered on: strike duos, getting real with Wrexham, three-up three-down and much, much more.

For the second time, it’s Mailbag day!

We’ve answered - or at least tried to answer - every question over the past few weeks. So please do keep dropping your questions in the nearest comment box.

Shall we begin with some big-picture stuff?

AdsITFC asks:

What are your thoughts on the DAZN bid to broadcast all EFL games and scrap the 3 pm blackout? Is it about time someone made a play for the hooooge EFL market, or is it a threat to attendance and traditions?

NB - since this question was posed, the EFL announced that Sky Sports has entered a period of exclusivity as preferred rights bidder. 

A lot of the reporting and discussion around this made it seem that the potential for BIG CHANGE in the EFL broadcasting landscape was imminent. I’m not sure the reality was ever that close. The headlines were strong, sparking the same heated conversation every time. Stuff that’s great for the news cycle, but does it move the needle?

We have no real information on the pitches put forward by DAZN and other platforms. What were they were offering, and what could they provably deliver? That word ‘provably’ is the key, particularly with the ghost of ITV Digital looming large over the conversation.

Overall, I have a ‘be careful what you wish for’ mindset, rather than ‘let’s tear it all up and spin the wheel’. Others may disagree.

As for the 3pm blackout: it’s not a discussion I have weighed in on so far. Why? I truly believe there is no ‘correct answer’ to this. Nobody knows what would or wouldn’t happen. Every argument I have seen for and against the blackout has merits. Each argument also seems to me to be full of assumptions, questionable evidence, and generally dictated by self-interest.

Those are not debates I feel comfortable diving into. I don’t like putting forward opinions which are based mainly on emotion, where you retrofit arguments onto what you want to happen. Nor do I have strong views either way. Maybe I’m cut out for the modern media landscape!

Right now, if the decision were mine, I would maintain the 3pm blackout. For some people, that’s disgraceful. Totally wrong. Idiotic. Archaic.

If it was to be scrapped, the world wouldn’t end. I would be intrigued by how things would change, a little concerned about its potential impact on attendances, and also excited for the new opportunities it would provide for fans and for broadcasters!

Joe Mcall asks:

With Wrexham and Notts County streets ahead in the National League, if they both come up, do you have an opinion on what they could do next year in League Two?

I have no doubt that Wrexham will be favourites for the League Two title if they are promoted. My hunch is that they’d take a bit of time to get going, but would have the ability to build a squad way too strong for the level, not to mention a tangible, powerful positivity around the club and the support necessary to keep going during the long winter months.

With Notts County, I’d be confident too. I don’t know the situations around Langstaff and Rodrigues, and I don’t profess to know how damaging their departures would be. But my understanding is that it’s a club being run by very smart people. They will instantly be one of the biggest fanbases. That doesn’t guarantee success, but that energy, harnessed in the right way, can be a strong upwards force. I would be incredibly excited to have this version of Notts County back in the EFL, seemingly so different from the basket case that was relegated in 2019.

So, yes. In my mind, both teams will be challenging for promotion next season - IF they are promoted. Who knows what could happen in the National League Play-Offs, eh?

Chris asks:

Do you think we’re getting closer than ever to a three-up, three-down situation between League Two and the conference?

I had assumed that EFL clubs would never vote on something that doesn’t suit them, such as this, but then I read this article by Jason Stockwood, owner of Grimsby Town. In particular, the following quote stood out:

For this change to be ratified, there will need to be a vote of the 92 Premier League and EFL clubs, with 50% being the threshold for change. Those in the higher divisions seem to be in favour, so it would be likely to happen.

Perhaps it’s more likely than I thought. For what it’s worth, I think it should be three up, three down in each division from Premier League down to National League. I hope they vote it through this summer ahead of next season.

David Hunter asks:

Presumably, Nathan Jones' next gig will be back in the EFL, unless he goes abroad. Which club(s) would be a good fit for him if they were to have a vacancy?

Great question. It’s been a crazy few years for Nathan Jones, massive highs and huge lows.

The good times at Luton owed a lot to the solid structure of the club, allowing him to be himself in a way that suited the situation. But what he did was still incredible.

The bad times at Stoke City and Southampton also have mitigating circumstances that, in my eyes, take some of the blame away from him. A proportion of the coverage of his time at Southampton was revolting, proper lowest-common-denominator stuff, with too much glee around his struggles. I absolutely hated that, so I am desperate for him to do well at his next club.

At this stage, I would have some concern about his ability to handle high-pressure situations, like walking into a Stoke City desperate to return to the Premier League but flailing around in their attempts to do so. Like walking into a Southampton on the cusp of suffering an unexpected, damaging relegation, desperate for a saviour.

Reputationally, he has taken a hit. There are also some Championship clubs whose fans dislike him due to his touchline and post-match interview persona. That could cause issues in terms of initial response and support for his appointment. Just ask Michael Appleton.

So, what do I think is the best fit? A club and fanbase that would feel pleased to have secured his services. A club that has a strong support structure, joined-up thinking. A club that has a calmness about it. There aren’t many clubs that fit the bill! It’s difficult to hypothesise about managerial vacancies but, if every club were to be managerless, maybe a Millwall. A Preston. A Bolton Wanderers?

Sam Morgan asks:

Having seen Paul Ince relieved of his duties following the defeat to Preston on Monday, it reminded me of quite a few other occasions that draws or defeats to Preston have resulted in managers losing their jobs over the years. This got me wondering, are PNE the ultimate kiss of death team, or are there any another teams that have hammered the final nail into a struggling manager's coffin more times? Would love to hear your take on this!

First, an apology. Trying to work out which teams were the opponent faced directly before a managerial sacking would take me about four weeks. Sorry, Sam, I can’t tell you if North End are #1.

It feels to me like a classic example of the availability heuristic. It fits into a category that I like to call ‘fan brain’. This is not meant as a dig at you! But as a fan, you’re only going to notice this when it happens to your club, realistically. Therefore, it’s going to feel like it happens all the time, or disproportionately to your club. The truth is that a) it probably happens less than you think it does and b) it probably happens a similar amount to many other teams.

It stands to reason that clubs that occupy the bottom half of league tables for long periods are likely to be towards the top of the list. Losing to a bottom-half team is bad for everyone. For a top-half team, you’ve lost to a clearly weaker team in most instances. For another bottom-half team, it moves a rival further away from you and moves you nearer danger. Disaster.

And how much does ‘club reputation’ play a part? My hunch is that it has less of an impact than people think, but I can’t prove that. It feels like the subtext to the celebration of being the ‘Kiss of Death Club’ is “Ha! You’re so embarrassed to lose to us because you think you’re better than us!”. I think league position is likely a stronger catalyst than that.

Maybe Preston are top of the list. Probably not. But someone has to be!

Dex asks:

Do you think Boro's lack of solidity away from home might cost us in the play-offs? Or does it not matter too much with how good we are going forward?

I am more concerned about this than I was a month ago. Since Christmas Day, Boro’s open play xG is the best in the league by miles. Their open play xG against is the 4th worst in that time.

Boro’s tactics are gung-ho, designed to turn games into shootouts. The quality of their attacking play means they have consistently been on the right side of those games. When the Play-Offs come around, it feels like a high-risk, high-reward strategy. It creates spells in games where Boro seem to give up a few good chances to their opposition in quick succession.

Will Carrick, his staff and players tighten things up, or will they continue to lean into the fast and furious approach that has served them well? It could be riskier to make conservative changes, and potentially knock the attacking players out of rhythm. Equally, will nerves affect the slickness of their attacking play? If that is the case, will they have the resolve to handle tough moments?

I hope they don’t change at all. I love high-risk, high-reward approaches, and it will create fascinating games tactically. This style has worked so well for them, I could absolutely see them overcoming their Play-Off opposition with the quality of their attacking play. But if Boro are going to fall in the Play-Offs, it seems fair to predict it will be on the back of loose defending.

Jason asks:

Is an Archer-Akpom partnership the best in this league? And how does it compare to the best partnerships of previous seasons?

This season, yes!

Adebayo and Morris are a nightmare due to their individual traits, but I think their partnership has taken quite a bit of time to develop. Barnes and Tella have complemented each other well.

But in terms of visibly combining, the understanding of each other’s movements and strengths and the unselfishness needed to pass up their own opportunities to unlock better chances for the team, they are clear.

In terms of previous seasons - it’s a difficult one. There are so many classic combinations from previous seasons and eras where a much higher % of teams played with two up top! Bit of a cop-out, sorry.

Who do you think is the most iconic partnership?

Chris H asks:

Back to the Monday Pod and you mentioned Sheffield Wednesday are now the team with the longest run without a 20-goal-a-season striker. Where do Stoke rank in this list? I certainly can’t remember the last 20-goal-a-season striker we had!

According to this article from The Sportsman, Stoke City are now on the fourth longest drought without a 20-goal-a-season player. On the podium is Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth Argyle and Walsall, with none of them likely to break the drought this season.

88. Stoke City - Peter Thorne (24) - 1999-00

89. Walsall - Kyle Lightbourne (20) - 1996-97

91. Plymouth Argyle - Steve Castle (21) - 1993-94

92. Sheffield Wednesday - David Hirst (24) - 1990-91

Jordan Rogers asks:

Accrington are looking like their run in League 1 may come to an end. Do you feel John Coleman is still the man to lead the club forward, and if he left, do you believe there is any manager who could return them to League 1 in the coming years?

Yes, I believe that he should carry on if he has the appetite to do so. The risk of ripping it up and starting afresh could be bigger than the reward of doing so. He’s an incredible manager. In League Two, where they would be on a more even playing field, I can easily see a scenario where they thrive again under Coleman.

As for another manager in the coming years, yes why not? It’s not impossible to get out of League Two even as a club with a small fanbase - Accrington, Burton, Forest Green and Fleetwood would all be in the bottom eight for League Two attendances this season. At the level, any club that can string together eighteen months of good decision-making and good performance can be promoted.

Justin Rice asks:

As a Sheff U fan, the rumoured takeover is dragging on now, how do you see this finishing? I think we’re better off sticking with Prince Abdullah for now.

There’s so much to say about football ownership in the EFL, but that’s an essay for another day.

For the Blades…better the devil you know? Perhaps. Perhaps not. When a buyer comes along with no previous record of football ownership, judging their suitability becomes the work (mostly) of guesswork. They can say what they like (Dozy Mmobuosi has said quite a bit in interviews), but in this situation, how much do words mean? Probably not that much. The EFL will wave him through, or they won’t, based on numbers.

Perhaps if Sheffield United secure automatic promotion sooner rather than later, that gives Mmobuosi more purchase; owners can (and most do) borrow against their club’s financial future, and the top-flight is RICH.

Largely, this is one for pleading the fifth. We do know that Prince Abdullah wants to sell. We do know that Sheffield United had to turn off the undersoil heating at the training ground to save money. And we do know that the Blades were put under a Transfer Embargo. So it’s not exactly a pretty picture financially right now.

For what it’s worth, I think the main thing is securing promotion and, if/as/when that happens, signing players who are likely to have re-sale value. If you have assets over the short, long and medium terms, you - all clubs - tend to do okay.

Ju Bhatia asks:

Your thoughts are about Jack Currie of AFC Wimbledon (I know Ali watched him)? We all know that he was the subject of bids in the January window but do you think a bid of £600k- £650k would have been good value for the club to accept at the time or even at the end of the season?

I like Currie. I think he is hard-working, tenacious, composed. He seems to have a great mentality. He has a slight build but makes up for that somewhat with aggressiveness and appetite for defensive work.

I think his athleticism (speed, acceleration, strength) would be the main concern moving up the leagues. The wide forwards in the Championship are stronger, quicker, more skilful. I also think he has a lot of work to do in terms of impacting things in the final third - don’t think he’s a natural dribbler or crosser of the ball, and that can be an issue depending on the role he is asked to play. All of this could improve with development - he’s played fewer than 50 professional games.

Overall I think it Bristol City’s bid was a good offer for AFC Wimbledon… in a vacuum.

League Two teams don’t sell players for that amount of money very often. £600k would add a significant % to Wimbledon’s revenue, not to mention a potential future sale kickback. The value that Currie provides over a league-average left back is likely worth less than £600k. It could give them the scope to offer more competitive wages across the whole squad for next season. Although they had just received an even bigger fee for Ayoub Assal, there’s no such thing as too much revenue, especially because transfer revenue is highly volatile season to season. Money for infrastructure, for hiring key staff, for making improvements to the training ground or stadium, for supporting the excellent Dons Local Action Group or the academy. It’s all good stuff.

But Ayoub Assal had just left. Ryley Towler was recalled. Paris Maghoma, too. Did they need the money as much as it seemed they needed the player? And what about fan sentiment? It was not ridiculous, in that scenario, to feel like losing Currie as well would have been too much, too impactful in the short term. The fact he is ‘home-grown’ adds to the sentimental volatility.

As it happens, things have gone poorly anyway. Wimbledon have picked up the fewest points in the league since January 1st. Currie lost his place for a few weeks after January, and hasn’t caught the eye as much in a losing team - no surprise there. 

So yes, I think it was a fair offer for a player with potential but with a small body of work. His value is unlikely to have gone up since January, how much has it dropped?

He’s a solid left back with impressive defensive skills. A good prospect in a shallow talent pool in his position.

I think if I was being purely objective and emotionless, I’d say that the sale would’ve been a good sale… in a vacuum. But emotion and subjectivity exist and have a big role in decision-making - often a problematic one. Vacuums don’t exist in player recruitment!

MaySixth asks:

Apparently, Rak-Sakyi is being linked with Ipswich next season.

Any truth in this, and is it division dependant?

No idea on the truth of this, I’m afraid. There are too many transfer rumours across 72 clubs for us to be across, so we mainly deal in DONE DEALS. Rak-Sakyi to Ipswich… who knows? If Rak-Sakyi is available on loan from Crystal Palace next season, I imagine there will be a rather substantial EFL net hoping to catch a rather special fish.

Go well & hit us with more questions 👇