🔊 EFL WEEKEND PREVIEW - Episode #1
In this NTT20 Podcast extra, George and Ali assess the weekend slate, each selecting their BIG game in every EFL league.
On the first day, there was the EFL Weekend Notes + Monday Pod. On the third day, there was the Mailbag. On the fourth day, there was the Betting Show. And now, on Friday, there is the first episode of the EFL Weekend Preview…
What is it? Part pod, part article. Ahead of every weekend slate, we’ll be picking two Big Games from each league and touching on the top lines from the rest. Let us know what you think & please drop a question in any comments box for the EFL Mailbag.
Enjoy the Weekend Preview, your weekend… and, go well!
EFL Weekend Preview - Episode #1
Press play, listen in, read along 👇
Championship - 00.00 or -43:13
League One - 17:38 or -25:35
League Two - 28:19 or -14:55
The joke that David Stockdale told Barry Bannan’s wife to induce labour - 42:35 or -00:39
Big game pick - George Elek:
West Brom (9th) vs Millwall (6th)
Form: LWLWWD vs WDLWWL
The Jed Wallace derby is a huge game in the context of the Play-Off picture. Five points between the teams. WBA with a game in hand, Millwall possessing that precious 6th spot.
WBA’s home form: 9 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats. They haven’t conceded a single goal from open play in their last ten at the Hawthorns! Millwall aren’t known for their open play goalscoring, particularly away from home.
Both teams are exceptionally well drilled by coaches that prioritise the highest standards out of possession. Likely to be cagey, low margin, possibly decided by a single goal…
Big game pick - Ali Maxwell:
Luton (4th) vs Watford (10th)
Form: WDWWWD vs WLDLWD
Not only is this the first Beds–Herts Derby fixture at Kenilworth Road in front of fans since 2006, but we also have as good a manager-based storyline as any we’ve had.
Rob Edwards started the season as Watford Manager. He was sacked after 10 league games. His replacement, Slaven Bilic, has since been sacked. Chris Wilder is trying to piece together the jigsaw.
Edwards was appointed by Watford’s main rivals, Luton Town, two months later, and has since shown every ounce of managerial quality and talent that led to Watford hiring him in the first place. In between his tenures, Watford thrashed Luton 4-0 at Vicarage Road. Tasty.
The form line reflects the two teams well - Luton Town have reached a consistently high-performance level under Rob Edwards. Watford are impossible to predict. Having had a week or two to coach their ideas over the International break, there’s an expectation that this team should now look like a Wilder/Knill team.
Top lines from the rest:
Burnley (1st) vs Sunderland (11th)
Form: WDWDWW vs LLLWLD
Thoughts:
Televised Friday night fare that seems set up for entertaining, attacking football. Can Sunderland keep Burnley at bay? Surely not. But they may enjoy the space afforded to their own talented attacking players. A high-scoring shootout, please!
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Preston (12th) vs Blackpool (23rd)
Form: WDDWWL vs LLDLWL
Thoughts:
Saturday lunchtime TV game. North End with a chance to put another nail in the Blackpool coffin. Will surely be the archetypal Championship derby: bitty, tetchy, nervy, low quality. And yet you still find yourself on the edge of your seat during these games!
Birmingham City (17th) vs Blackburn Rovers (5th)
Form: LLDWLW vs WWWWLW
Thoughts:
Both teams’ level of performance is difficult to predict, but Blackburn with a great chance to solidify their playoff spot. Rovers’ good form has mostly come at Ewood Park - their last away game was a poor performance at Stoke.
Bristol City (14th) vs Reading (18th)
Form: WLDWLL vs WLLLLD
Thoughts:
Paul Ince confirmed that the club are expecting a six-point deduction from the EFL in the next couple of days, which would put Reading under intense relegation pressure. Both teams missing a ton of players.
Cardiff (21st) vs Swansea (16th)
Form: WWLWLD vs LDLLLW
Thoughts:
No team had ever done the double in this derby until Swansea did it last season. They also won the reverse in October. Pride at stake!
Coventry (8th) vs Stoke (13th)
Form: WDWDDW vs WLWWDD
Thoughts:
The hipster’s choice. Current xG darlings Stoke City looking to disrupt another promotion chaser. Each Gyökeres Championship appearance needs to be savoured at this stage.
Huddersfield (22nd) vs Middlesbrough (3rd)
Form: LLDLDW vs WLWWDW
Thoughts:
Warnock hosting former club Boro, where things didn’t end very well. Everything points to an away win, but to use a classic EFL pundit trope: “this is the Championship.”
Hull City (15th) vs Rotherham (20th)
Form: DLWDLD vs LWDWLL
Don’t quote us on it:
Hull City…Rotherham…I think could be 0-0
Ali Maxwell
Thoughts:
Only 1W in the last 8 for Hull City. Rotherham haven’t won away in 9.
Norwich (7th) vs Sheffield United (2nd)
Form: WWWLDD vs LWLWLW
Thoughts:
I sense that Norwich City are perhaps not quite as good as people think they are under David Wagner. And I don’t think Sheffield United are ‘wobbling’ as much as people think they are. Chance to prove it, here.
Wigan (24th) vs QPR (19th)
Form: LDLLDD vs LLLWLL
Thoughts:
Both teams have won just 2 of their last 22 games. Call it a draw?
A whirlwind week in League One continues, here…
Big game pick - Ali Maxwell:
Derby (6th) vs Ipswich (3rd)
Form: WDLWLL vs WWWWWW
Thoughts:
The form speaks for itself: one side lacks it, and the other can’t get enough of it. Just a few weeks ago, Derby were being talked-up as top-two contenders. Not anymore. The previous six matches haven’t only killed any automatic aspirations but killed a bit of Derby’s vibe too.
Ipswich on the other hand… you can’t do much better than six games, six wins and no goals conceded. But (and it’s a hesitant ‘but’ because they’re looking very, very good) they have played four of their last six at home. And they’ve drawn or lost 50% of their away games this season. Derby have more than a chance, and whatever the result, there are going to be big repercussions for the play-off and automatic promotion race.
Big game pick - George Elek:
Peterborough (7th) vs Oxford (20th)
Form: LWLWWW
Thoughts:
Peterborough have their mojo back and are chasing League One promotion dreams like Darren Ferguson’s Peterborough V1. Like Darren Ferguson’s Peterborough V2. And so, if it looks like Classic Posh and smells like Classic Posh… then it probably is Classic Posh. Their form is an ominous sign for their opponents.
Oxford have been under new management for two weeks. Liam Manning’s side has two points from a possible thirty-two. They sit one place and two points off the relegation zone. There may be reasons to cheerful, but it’s hard to come up with any.
Top lines from the rest:
Barnsley (4th) vs Morecambe (22nd)
Form: DWWWWL vs DDLLDL
Thoughts:
Barnsley needing to bounce back - it’s been a while since we said that. In mid-week, the Reds presented symptoms of game-in-handitis in a 3-1 loss to Exeter. But this game reeks of bouncebackability.
Morecambe have won once away from home all season and no team has taken fewer points on the road. The challenge that this game presents - even in the face of all Derek Adam’s miracle-working - is patently obvious.
Charlton (12th) vs Shrewsbury (10th)
Form: DLDWWD vs LWDLWL
Don’t quote us on it:
Two teams who are destined for mid-table finishes this season.
George Elek
Cheltenham (17th) vs Burton (18th)
Form: LWDWWD vs WDLWLW
Thoughts:
Will Cheltenham be exhausted after a brilliant effort to draw 2-2 with Sheff Wed on Wednesday night on a boggy, energy-sapping pitch? Burton will test them with plenty of attacking vigour.
Fleetwood (13th) vs Exeter (11th)
Form: WLLDWW vs WDWLWW
Thoughts:
Big one in the Race For 11th. Exeter gave themselves a strong chance with a midweek win vs Barnsley, but Fleetwood have been a tough, coddy nut to crack all season, and Marriott & Stockley keep any defence honest.
Port Vale (16th) vs Cambridge (23rd)
Form: LLWDLD vs LLLDLL
Don’t quote us on it:
Cambridge just have to win. Cambridge have to show an away performance. Cambridge need a pulse.
Ali Maxwell
Portsmouth (9th) vs Forest Green (24th)
Form: WLLWWD vs LDLLLW
Thoughts:
Portsmouth really have to win. The gap to sixth (Derby) is six points, and Pompey will hope they drop points against Ipswich. The chasing pack all have favourable fixtures - 8th plays 19th, 7th plays 20th, and 9th plays 24th - but perhaps Portsmouth have the most favourable of all.
FGR are unlikely to claw their way to safety. They are eleven points off 21st and, with the ridiculous win against Wednesday to one side, they probably haven’t got enough (although Big Dunc thinks they can do it, and that’s nice).
Wycombe (8th) vs MK Dons (19th)
Form: DWLWLD vs LDLWWW
Thoughts:
It’s not just Derby that Wycombe need to catch, but likely in-form Posh, too. Wins are essential for Bloomfield’s Chairboys. MK Dons could be a banana skin, looking to continue their binary form: 1-0, 1-0, 1-0.
Sheffield Wednesday (2nd) vs Lincoln (14th)
Form: WWDLLD vs DWDLLL
Thoughts:
Wednesday come into this game on the back of blip. Maybe a slide. But a bottle-job? Probably not. A game against Forest Green should’ve been the perfect medicine to cure the ills of a 4-2 defeat to Barnsley; it wasn’t. This game has something of the Calpol about it too.
Lincoln haven’t been beaten by a side currently sitting in the top four. Their best games and results this season have been in fixtures exactly like this one. Spooky for Wednesday.
Big game pick - George Elek:
Northampton (2nd) vs Stevenage (3rd)
Form: DWDWWW vs WLWWDL
Whoever wins this is putting one foot in League One next season.
George Elek
Northampton top the form table in League Two, and they haven’t conceded a goal in their last three home games. Stevenage haven’t played particularly well recently, and that has been amplified away from home.
Cobblers are two points clear of third-placed Stevenage, who are one point clear of fourth-placed Carlisle, who are three points clear of fifth-placed Stockport… you see where this is going. It is incredibly tight at the top of League Two. The reality is that a defeat for either side plunges them into a scrap with the teams behind them.
Big game pick - Ali Maxwell:
Stockport (5th) vs Salford (6th)
Form: LDDWDW vs WDWLWW
An immovable object takes on an unstoppable force. Stockport are thrifty - just two goals conceded in six. Their sheets are clean. Their defence is tight. BUT… Salford have scored the most goals away from home in League Two. They’ve scored eighteen in six. They’ve scored twelve in their last four away games.
This is box office. Defence versus attack. Discipline versus creativity. Stockport versus Salford. Should be a cracker.
Top lines from the rest:
Tranmere (14th) vs Harrogate (20th)
Form: WWDLLD vs LDDWLW
Thoughts:
Tranmere’s new manager Ian Dawes is deploying an attacking diamond, and it could make for a pretty entertaining encounter against a Harrogate side who are pretty generous in allowing teams to play football, take shots, score goals, as long as they’re allowed to have a good go, too.
Bradford (7th) vs Grimsby (15th)
Form: WWDDDD vs DWWDDD
Thoughts:
Bradford have drawn four on the spin, which seems weird because their position has held quite firmly (the teams behind mucking up). Grimsby’s form matches Bradford’s (W3 D3), and we know they have form picking up points away. You can’t get away from the fact that Bradford don’t need to win to stay in the play-off picture, but it feels like they do.
Wimbledon (16th) vs Rochdale (24th)
Form: LLDLLW vs LDWLDL
Thoughts:
Jim out. Jim in. Bentley for McNulty, as Rochdale being to accept relegation and make plans for the National League. For Johnnie Jackson, back-to-back home wins would quell some rumblings of discontent.
Barrow (10th) vs Gillingham (17th)
Form: WDWDLW vs DDWLWW
Don’t quote us on it:
Could be the lowest score of all time in League Two
Ali Maxwell
Colchester (21st) vs Newport (18th)
Form: LLLLDD vs LLDDDW
Thoughts:
Colchester have to be a little bit careful. The gap to the relegation zone is only going to narrow if Hartlepool (23rd) keep playing as well as they are and the U’s keep playing as poorly.
Hartlepool (23rd) vs Swindon (11th)
Form: LDDDDD vs WDLDDL
Thoughts:
Any hope Swindon had of making the play-offs have probably fizzled away. Hartlepool have drawn matches in every which way, recently. Taking leads and squandering ‘em. Scoring raucous late equalisers. Maybe this time they could put together a more dependable display over 90 minutes, to give themselves some hope of surviving.
Doncaster (12th) vs Crewe (19th)
Form: DLWLDL vs DDWLLL
Don’t quote us on it:
Possibly the worst fixture in the whole EFL this weekend.
Ali Maxwell
Leyton Orient (1st) vs Carlisle (4th)
Form: WWDDDD vs WWWDDL
Thoughts:
Leyton Orient will have a cushion whatever happens here. But for Carlisle, this is a massive game. Especially with second playing third.
Mansfield (8th) vs Crawley (22nd)
Form: LWLDDD vs LWWDWD
Thoughts:
A banged-up Mansfield Town team, with a seemingly downcast manager, hosting an upwardly mobile relegation battler. Banana skin?
Walsall (13th) vs Sutton (9th)
Form: DLDWDL vs WDWDLD
Thoughts:
A Saddlers season that never really sparked into life, is petering HARD. Sutton haven’t scored in three, and need to prove their play-off chops with a win against a less-motivated opposition.
Elsewhere on NTT20…
This week’s Betting Show is live and kicking (not with Zoe Ball, but with naps, next-bests, goals bets and more)👇
As the pitched battle for the Championship play-offs recommences, we’ve gone and done a thread of the runners and riders 👇
Finally, some housekeeping… Did this email in your Spam or Promotions folder? To make sure our posts land in the right folder, please drag the email into your Inbox. Also, if you reply directly to our email it helps Gmail and others recognise us for next time.
"Honestly Katie, since Alec told Daniel to sod off for saying United were bottling it, we've picked up two points from twelve."
Great content lads, keep it up.
Back to the Monday Pod and you mentioned Sheffield Wednesday are now the team with the longest run without a 20 goal a season striker. Where do Stoke rank in this list? I certainly can’t remember the last 20 goal a season striker we had!
Thanks
Liam H