FINAL DAY FOCUS
Predicting the tables and ranking the excitement levels for every EFL finalé, from the Championship title race down to the League Two relegation battle.
Huw Davies, Ali Maxwell, Matt Watts & Sam Parry
Across every EFL league, the mixology of steady plodders, later-bloomers and clingers-on confronts us as a volatile cocktail. A dangerous last-last after a night — a season — of heavy stakes, seconds winds and tumbling form. Time to drink it up. Who’s shaking, who’s stirring and who will find themselves on the rocks?
The final days are upon us. And before we launch into the play-offs, NTT20.COM staff writers are reviewing the final day fixtures that matter, considering the possible permutations, and predicting the closing constellation of automatic, play-off and relegation places in all three leagues.
Oh, and we’re ranking the lot by EXCITEMENT LEVELS — from ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ to ⭐.
League Two — Play-offs ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sam Parry
Fixtures
AFC Wimbledon v Walsall (10th)
Barrow (7th) v Mansfield
Bradford (9th) v Newport
Colchester v Crewe (6th)
Crawley (8th) v Grimsby
Gillingham v Doncaster (5th)
As it stands
In Focus
In a South Yorkshire pub on February 9th 2024, a gloom-struck Doncaster Rovers fan might’ve turned to their mate and joked: “On final day, I’ll buy and down a pint for every win between now and the end of the season and I’ll probably get change from a tenner.”
His side were 22nd in the table with 29 points from 29 games. Since then, Donny have played 16 times, winning 8 out of 8 at home, and winning 4, drawing 3 and losing one away. Nobody in the league has accrued more points in that time (39), and the rationally cynical Doncaster fan will need much more than a tenner for his 12-pint tally. But he’ll surely have cause for a knees-up.
Now in 5th on 70 points, Rovers will claim a Top 7 place with a win or a draw against a Gillingham side whose play-off aspirations died as Donny were wheeling past Barrow, (through streets broad and narrow). Oh, and a loss will also be good enough provided one of Crewe, Barrow or Crawley drop points. Easy, right?
Crewe face Colchester on final day, and the equation is equally simple: win or draw and they nab a Top 7 place. The complicating factors include Alex’s record of a single win and a solitary goal in their previous six games. Dire. However, with Colchester needing a draw to guarantee survival and Crewe needing a draw to nick a play-off place, could there be a convenient marriage on the cards? More on that down the bottom.
What about Barrow in 7th? After spending a huge chunk of the season wedded to the Top 7, Pete Wild’s side needs a win to guarantee avoiding an unlikely divorce. All three teams below could, theoretically, catch them up — the target is on their back.
Like Crewe, their form line is horrible, with one point from the last 18 available. Unlike Crewe who face the team third-from-bottom on final day, they face Mansfield, the team second-from-top. You could make the argument that an already-promoted Stags side will be on the beach. The counterfactual is that Barrow have tanked badly, with just two wins in ten, and could find themselves on the floor come Saturday evening.
If Barrow lose, it leaves the door open to Crawley, Bradford and Walsall. If Barrow draw, Walsall cannot capitalise and Bradford would need to win with a seven-goal swing. But, if Crawley win and Barrow drop points, the Red Devils will take the final spot.
They face a Grimsby side who have secured survival on the back of three wins in six games; a side who might be beachy; a side who might not. But hold up. The permutations for Crawley are more complex than most. If Donny and Crewe both lose, then a Crawley win could see them rise as high as 5th. In fact, a draw against Grimsby and Crawley could still make it should Barrow lose by 2+ goals, a situation that is only plausible thanks to Bradford.
Late-blooming Bradford have Tyler Smith, the former Donny loanee, to thank for ensuring final day holds some consequence. On Tuesday night, he scored a 90th-minute winner against Barrow to isolate the 7th-placed club as a target for all those outside the play-offs. With Bradford facing Newport — the worst side in League Two over the last seven games (losing them all) — the Bantams will be confident that they will do their bit.
Finally, and least likely to make the running, Walsall must win. Even if they do, they need Barrow and Crawley to lose and Bradford to drop points. It’s asking a lot. Too much…?
Predictions
In short, yes. Walsall are relying on mass failure. I think they’ll manage a win against AFC Wimbledon, but it will almost certainly not be enough. Likewise, Bradford have left it a game too late — they’re rightly heavy-favourites to beat Newport; they’re rightly outsiders to make the play-offs. Because Donny will get a result. Crewe will play out the draw they need. And that leaves space for just one switcheroo.
Enter Crawley. Exit Barrow. (Sorry Bluebirds).
League One — Play-offs ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Huw Davies
Fixtures
Barnsley (5th) v Northampton
Lincoln (6th) v Portsmouth
Exeter v Oxford (7th)
Reading v Blackpool (8th)
As it stands
In focus
“How are we in this?” Blackpool must be wondering. Neil Critchley’s side have been outside the play-off places for the entire season since opening weekend except for three days in October, and yet they’re still in with a shout. They have the most to do, but will back themselves to beat Reading having obliterated them at Bloomfield Road.
The problem is Blackpool’s away displays. They have the division’s third-best home record, with 14 wins and three defeats… and the 14th-best away record, with seven wins and 11 defeats. Worse still, Reading are very strong at the Madejski under Rubén Sellés. However, last weekend’s 3-2 defeat to a Burton side who’d lost eight home games in a row did suggest the Royals may be spent after an emotionally exhausting season off the pitch, or simply relieved that they’re safe. Should Blackpool triumph, they’d also need two of Oxford, Lincoln or Barnsley to fail to win.
“How are we in this?” Lincoln must be wondering, handing Blackpool their beer to hold. After all, the Tangerines’ budget, personnel and pre-season expectations pointed squarely to an automatic promotion push. The Imps’ rise, meanwhile, has been nothing short of spectacular – not in positions climbed, because they were as high as 9th when Michael Skubala took the reins in November and haven’t dipped into the bottom half since, but in points gained. February began with Lincoln 15 points off the top six – 17, if you include Stevenage’s tally once they’d made up their games in hand. Now they’re in that top six.
Of the four contenders, Lincoln have the hardest game on paper (although on paper they wouldn’t have taken 39 points from their last 48 available). Portsmouth have nothing to play for, the cheeky champs, but they probably have stopped drinking by now. And with the American owners and their Hollywood chums jetting in – that’s right, it’s Will Ferrell time again – the Pompey players won’t want to lose in front of Anchorman et al. Lincoln’s performance levels have dropped slightly in recent weeks and there’s a chance they could run out of puff. But they could reach the play-offs with a draw, or even a defeat if Oxford lose and Blackpool don’t win.
“How are we in this?” Barnsley must be wondering, for very different reasons. In the first week of March, they were 10 points clear of 7th and three behind 2nd with a game in hand. They’d lost only twice in 25 matches. Then they crashed 5-1 at home to Lincoln – 15 points behind them at the time – and the wheels fell off. Not helped by a rearranged fixture list presenting them with five away games in the space of three weeks, Barnsley went on a losing streak, and now, barely six weeks after that spiral-inducing loss to Lincoln, the Tykes lead them by a single point and could easily tumble out of the play-off places at the worst possible time.
The most important thing is how you react to adversity and Barnsley have reacted by taking decisive action, decisively soiling the bedsheets. Neill Collins has been cast into the sun, and his replacement must coax his players into grabbing a play-off place largely on vibes, given the limited training time available. On the plus side, they’re 5th as it stands and have the easiest fixture… but they still need to win, or hope that two of the other contenders don’t better their result if they don’t.
And finally there’s Oxford, who have been at sixes and sevens across the past few months of League One tables. Their opponents, Exeter, are supposed to be on a Jurassic Coast beach, so their being the division’s in-form team (20 points from their last eight games) is not what Oxford would call ideal. The Yellows need to win unless a number of other results go their way, so they could have the hardest task of all.
Prediction
Championship - Relegation ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Matt Watts
Fixtures
Friday 26th + Saturday 27th April
QPR (18th) v Leeds
Blackburn (19th) v Coventry
Huddersfield (23rd) v Birmingham (22nd)
Millwall v Plymouth (20th)
Sheffield Wednesday (21st) v West Brom
Southampton v Stoke (17th)
Saturday 4th May
Birmingham (22nd) v Norwich
Coventry v QPR (18th)
Ipswich v Huddersfield (23rd)
Leicester v Blackburn (19th)
Plymouth (20th) v Hull
Stoke (17th) v Bristol City
Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday (21st)
Permutations
With two games remaining and seven teams still at risk of joining Rotherham in League One next season, the permutations at the bottom of the Championship are plentiful. Quite frankly, there are still so many different possibilities that, in order to do them justice, they would require an article of their own. That being said, wins for QPR and Stoke this weekend will guarantee their survival. A win for Blackburn would also put them in an incredibly strong position. By the same token, a defeat for Huddersfield against Birmingham would spell an end to their time in the Championship if Sheffield Wednesday got so much as a point against West Brom.
In Focus
A Friday night game under the lights at Loftus Road between a QPR side looking to stave off relegation and a Leeds side hoping to strike another blow in the race for automatic promotion feels like the perfect way to kick off the penultimate Championship weekend. With a trip to Coventry on the final day, Rangers will be eager to get the job done at the earliest opportunity.
Speaking of Coventry, Blackburn welcome the Sky Blues to Ewood Park on Saturday. Rovers will also be desperate to get the points that they require before their trip to Leicester next weekend. Of course, Blackburn would have already been as good as safe if they had beaten Sheffield Wednesday. The Owls beat Rovers 3-1; a result which moved Danny Rohl’s side out of the bottom three for the first time since August. Their next assignment sees them take on Carlos Corberan’s West Brom.
Of course, Wednesday moved out of the relegation zone at the expense of Birmingham. In terms of the bottom of the Championship, the game of the weekend (and, arguably, the season) is the match between Andre Breitenreiter’s Huddersfield and Gary Rowett’s Blues. The Terriers are three points from safety, they’ve won one of their last ten games and they come into this one off the back of a disastrous 4-0 defeat at home to Swansea. Meanwhile, Birmingham are just one point behind Sheffield Wednesday (with a vastly superior goal difference) and they have picked up a couple of wins since Rowett returned to the club; however, both of those victories have come at home. You have to go back to 20th January for the Blues last away win.
Given their current predicament and with a trip to promotion-chasing Ipswich still to come, a win feels like an absolute necessity for Huddersfield. A point would be less disastrous for Birmingham, but it may well take their destiny out of their own hands as they head into final day. A visit from David Wagner’s Norwich City looks fairly daunting, but the Canaries may well have already secured their play-off berth.
Predictions
Look away now, Blackburn fans! I’ve tipped Birmingham to pick up a point at Huddersfield on Saturday, followed by three points at home to a Norwich side with one eye on the play-offs. I think Blackburn will draw with Coventry and then lose to a tension-free Leicester on their Coronation Day. I fancy Sheffield Wednesday to beat West Brom at Hillsborough, before picking up a point at the Stadium of Light. I also believe that the likes of QPR, Stoke and Plymouth will collect the necessary points to keep their heads above water.
League One — Relegation ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Huw Davies
Fixtures
Port Vale vs Cambridge (19th)
Fleetwood vs Burton Albion (20th)
Stevenage vs Cheltenham (21st)
As it stands
In focus
The Great Escape takes a while to get to the ‘escape’ part. For the first hour and a half or so (stick with it, kids!), the film is closer to The Great Preparation or The Patient Character Development. But it’s all necessary stuff and it builds to a crescendo with the titular escape attempt – classic Hollywood pacing, A to B to C.
The 2023/24 Cheltenham Town remake has been directed by David Lynch.
After a confusingly slow first quarter of the runtime (zero goals scored in 11 games), suddenly everything happened at once. A plot twist introduced a new protagonist, the pace picked up considerably, new characters came and went (Will Goodwin unexpectedly scoring in four consecutive games, then being sold a month later), progress was made rapidly and beating future champions Portsmouth meant Cheltenham could taste freedom. When they won three games in eight days in February, it was as if they had soared over the fence and landed on the safe side, before checking their watches and realising there were still 40 minutes of the film left.
In Lynchian fashion, it all went wrong. Yet there may still be a happy ending, thanks to final-act triumphs over Burton Albion and Peterborough. And helping Cheltenham is the long-distance form of Burton and Cambridge (sorry for, uh, ‘relegating’ you both to minor characters in this). All that’s keeping Cambridge up as it stands is Easter weekend, which brought their only two wins since February 17th. Burton have also won only twice in that time – two clubs circling the drain while simultaneously keeping their heads above water, which suggests a very blocked drain.
Unfortunately for Cheltenham, they have to win on final day – albeit against a Stevenage team who offered very little in their first game since Steve Evans’ departure – while Burton and Cambridge both face already-relegated clubs, and a draw will be enough to save Cambridge. Fleetwood will be tricky opponents for Burton, however, so if Darrell Clarke’s side can fulfil their end of the bargain, there could be light at the end of Cheltenham’s tunnel after all.
Championship — Title Race ⭐⭐⭐
Matt Watts
Fixtures
Friday 26th, Saturday 27th + Monday 29th April
QPR v Leeds (2nd)
Hull v Ipswich (3rd)
Preston v Leicester (1st)
Tuesday 30th April
Coventry v Ipswich (3rd)
Saturday 4th May
Ipswich (3rd) v Huddersfield
Leeds (2nd) v Southampton
Leicester (1st) v Blackburn
Permutations
One team with three games to play, two teams with two games to play… Let’s focus on the permutations this weekend! Leicester could be promoted on Friday night if Leeds fall to defeat against QPR. The Foxes wouldn’t be promoted if Leeds get a result and Ipswich lose to Hull on Saturday, because Kieran McKenna’s side have two games next week. However, Enzo Maresca’s side can finish the job off themselves with a win at Preston on Monday night. If Leeds drop points, then a draw would be good enough, but a win seals the deal no matter what. If Ipswich fail to win, then three points for the Foxes would also hand them the Championship title.
In Focus
It’s hard to imagine a world where Leicester aren’t playing Premier League football next season. A rather unconvincing victory at home to West Brom was followed by a very convincing victory at home to Southampton. With games against Preston and Blackburn to come, the Foxes are on the brink of securing an immediate return to the top flight.
As for the second automatic promotion place, this is where things get interesting. Leeds sit one point above Ipswich (with a superior goal difference), but Kieran McKenna’s side have a game in hand. Daniel Farke’s men travel to QPR on Friday night, before welcoming Southampton to Elland Road on final day. A trip to Loftus Road is never straightforward, but it becomes even less so when you consider the fact that Rangers still need points to guarantee their survival.
After 14 days without a game (is it just me or does it feel significantly longer?), Ipswich return to action against Hull on Saturday night. This is followed by a trip to Coventry on Tuesday before a home game against Huddersfield next Saturday. Clearly, automatic promotion is currently in Ipswich’s hands, but a victory for Leeds at QPR would take them four points clear of the Tractor Boys, which is quite a big swing when you consider that Ipswich’s point against Middlesbrough had put them two points clear of the Elland Road club. Winless in their last three, can Kieran McKenna’s side finish the season with three successive victories? Even by their incredibly high standards, that feels like a big ask.
And then there’s Southampton. If Cardiff put a significant dent in their automatic promotion hopes, then Leicester absolutely obliterated them. Russell Martin’s Saints need to get back on track before the play-offs.
Predictions
After dismantling Southampton on Tuesday night, I firmly believe Leicester will wrap up the title relatively easily. I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that both Leeds and Ipswich will drop points on the road this weekend, but I fancy them both to win their remaining fixtures which would see Ipswich clinch the second automatic promotion spot. Has my heart overruled my head? Possibly.
On paper, the Tractor Boys trip to Coventry next week looks testing, but I’ve got a feeling that the Sky Blues won’t have anything left to play for and I can see them running out of steam. Home games against Huddersfield and Southampton will be testing for different reasons but, with promotion on the line, I would back both of these exceptional teams to pick up three points.
League One — Automatic promotion ⭐⭐
Huw Davies
Fixtures
Derby (2nd) vs Carlisle
Peterborough vs Bolton (3rd)
As it stands
In focus
Surely we’re in the environs of stick-a-fork-in-it-because-it’s-done here, aren’t we? For Bolton to overtake Derby in a photo finish, they’d need to win by a couple of goals away at 4th-placed Peterborough while Derby lose by a couple of goals at home to rock-bottom Carlisle. No, that goose is cooked. Game over, man. Game over.
…and yet.
Final day does funny things to people. There’ll be palpable nerves at Pride Park as long as the score remains 0-0, especially if Bolton score early, and Paul Warne will be feeling them as much as the fans do. It’d be ludicrous to decry the Derby manager as a bottler or anything so absurd, especially given that his Rotherham side needed to win on final day in 2022 and did so, but he has experienced two traumatic final days in his recent past and they will surely be sitting restlessly in the back of his mind, under that big bobble hat.
In 2021, Warne’s Millers needed a win on final day against a beachy Cardiff to secure Championship survival, and they led 1-0 for 80 minutes. They had chances to extend that lead – Richard Wood, Matt Crooks, Lewis Wing. They did not take them. Cardiff equalised in the 88th minute and Rotherham were relegated.
In 2023, Warne’s Derby needed a point (maybe three, circumstances depending) on final day against Sheffield Wednesday to secure a League One play-off spot. With half-time approaching, Curtis Davies was sent off and Wednesday scored. Derby lost 1-0, finish 7th.
Warne is a sensitive bloke, by his own admission. He takes defeats hard, and personally. Those ones hurt. Unless and until Derby are two goals to the good, there will surely be ghosts. And Carlisle, dangerously unpredictable, can be unpredictably dangerous: they dented the promotion hopes of Stevenage (2-2) and Peterborough (3-1) in recent weeks and have actually scored in 16 of their 21 matches since the turn of the year.
Fine, all very well and good, Carlisle can ‘beat Derby’ – I see you making air quotes. But what about Ian Evatt’s Bolton winning comfortably away at Darren Ferguson’s Peterborough, huh? That doesn’t seem very likely.
What, like they did last season?
Same managers, mostly the same players – Messrs Mason-Clark, Clarke-Harris, Poku, Edwards, Kyprianou & Co. all started for Posh that day, alongside players who’ve since moved to better teams, in Jack Taylor, Joe Ward and Frankie Kent. Peterborough went into that game in form, too. In this season’s meeting at the Toughsheet, Bolton held on to draw 1-1 despite playing all of the second half with 10 men. And now, Ferguson throwing in the towel on automatic promotion in midweek and resting several key players may potentially do more harm than good.
Bolton can win comfortably at Peterborough. Derby can lose at home to Carlisle.
But no, it probably won’t happen.
Prediction
League Two — Relegation ⭐⭐
Sam Parry
Fixtures
MK Dons v Sutton (23rd)
Colchester (22nd) v Crewe
As it stands
In Focus
Sutton United’s sniff of survival was registering on the ears more faintly than a mouse’s sigh. You can now transmogrify that metaphorical mouse into a slightly larger rodent because Doncaster Rovers beat Colchester United 4-1 on Tuesday night to reduce the goal difference from a ridiculously large margin to just a large one. In the EFL void, if defeat for Colchester collides with victory for Sutton then, ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves a ball game.
Sutton face MK Dons on Saturday. Not easy. But with play-offs in the bag, MK may well rest up some weary legs ahead of their semi-final double-header in May. Still, you’d imagine the task to be rather too steep for a Sutton side who’ve only won 9 times in 45 games. But if it isn’t, and Sutton win, what needs to happen to secure their survival?
Simple: Colchester must lose. ColU would ideally (for Sutton) lose by a few, reversing the 4-goal gap in goal difference. But look. As above [see L2 play-offs]. Colchester face Crewe with both sides knowing a point is sufficient to achieve survival and play-offs respectively. Games like these have a tendency to work themselves out through non-collusive mutual assurance — consider the Disgrace of Gijón. So, the prediction is simple, ColU draw, and for the sake of it, I’m sticking a Sutton win in there…
Prediction
Championship - Play-offs ⭐
Ali Maxwell
Fixtures
Saturday 27th April
Sheff Wed v West Brom (5th)
Norwich (6th) v Swansea
Blackburn v Coventry (8th)
Hull (7th) v Ipswich
Tuesday 30th April
Coventry (8th) v Ipswich
Saturday 4th May
West Brom (5th) v Preston
Birmingham City v Norwich (6th)
Plymouth v Hull (7th)
Coventry (8th) v QPR
As it stands
In Focus
Frankly, this is not hugely exciting and could be tied up by Saturday night. Norwich City and West Bromwich Albion are in the driving seats, seatbelts on and engines running. There is one black and amber vehicle in their rearview mirrors: Hull City.
Wednesday night’s game between Hull and Coventry City was a kind of ‘Match For Hope’: win, and you’re still in with a chance. Hull City won 3-2 in Coventry, a strong away performance and victory that still owed plenty to Coventry’s FA Cup Semi Final hangover. Coventry’s general performance contained effort, but lacked quality, and their goalkeeper Brad Collins had a ‘mare. Cov can still make the play-offs, but they won’t — they need to win their three remaining games and hope that Norwich and Hull lose both of theirs.
As for the victorious Hull City? Well, given the significantly superior goal differences of Norwich and West Bromwich Albion, with both sides on 72 points and Hull only able to reach 75, both will realistically secure their spot in the Big Dance with one more victory. It doesn’t exactly quicken the pulse.
But Swansea are an awkward opponent for Norwich, seemingly enjoying the freedom that safety has provided and the early months of Luke Williams’ tenure, while WBA’s recent form (one win in six) and odds of 6/4 to beat Sheffield Wednesday suggest dropped points are a strong possibility. Any defeats on Saturday afternoon will open the door for Hull to draw level on points heading into Final Day… but The Tigers are playing a refreshed Ipswich Town, off the back of a two-week break.
I hope we’re still talking about potential Play-Off shenanigans next week ahead of Final Day, but I suspect we won’t be. West Brom and Norwich may be more interested in jostling for 5th position and the privilege — if that is how it is seen — of playing Southampton rather than Ipswich, Leeds or Leicester.
However… this DOES have implications down the bottom of the division, where desperate, floundering sides cling to any piece of driftwood, no matter how flimsy. If Norwich and WBA wrap things up this weekend, Birmingham City may benefit from a cotton-wool-wrapped Norwich on Final Day. On the same day, Plymouth Argyle may take on a dejected Hull City if their play-off bid has failed. Coventry host QPR, who may need a point just to be sure. There’s also world in which Ipswich could even win promotion against Coventry next Tuesday if the Sky Blues have fully run out of steam.
There you go: even in the realms of One-Star Excitement, we can still get excited about the butterfly effect of end-of-season results!
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Terrific, an absorbing read for something so complicated!
Oh now you’ve done it Huw 😬