Heaven 7 Leeds, Stevenage revel in it, Swindon smackdown Carlisle, and is Matt Watts getting off the Parker Bus?
03 February 2025 | Weekend Notes brings you the biggest stories, stats and insights from the EFL weekend.
● BIG STORIES ● CHEAT SHEET ● 5IVELIGHTS ● THE VIEW FROM ● FORM BOOK ● FANTASY FOOTBALL ●
It’s that time again…
Yeah, it’s deadline day. But for a moment, let’s look at three leagues that are going full Batch-it Crazy.
In League Two, the musical chairs kept moving as every team from 2nd to 7th swapped places. League One’s mid-table commuters are now so densely packed that every team in the bottom half – bar the bottom four – is crammed into the 30s. And in the Championship, the Seeded Batch has just come out of the oven – fresh, golden, and ready to rise.
Welcome to Weekend Notes.
🚨 Big Stories
A selection of decisive moments from across the EFL.
🔢 Sept in Jan — Leeds 7-0 Cardiff — A septuplet of goals meant Leeds recorded their biggest win since 1972, leaving Cardiff to blot their history book with the biggest defeat since Sir Antony Eden oversaw the lowest unemployment rate in UK history. There’s no sign of Omer Riza picking up his P45, but this one has to hurt – not least because former Swansea man Dan James played a leading role in the first four (4!) goals. Yes, Leeds were imperious and clinical. Yes, a 7-0 loss counts the same as a 1-0 loss. And yes, Cardiff’s survival hopes will hinge on games against those around them – they have Stoke, Pompey, Argyle and Hull in their next six games. Still, this was a shambolic effort, replete with lazy penalty-box hacks and brainless defending. As for Leeds, this felt like a statement. See out their next five games (against five top-half sides) and only the brave would back against their promotion this season.
📊 Putting the Ven(n) in Stevenage — Stevenage 4-1 Exeter — After a 3-0 defeat to Wycombe on Boxing Day, Alex Revell’s Stevenage looked secure enough to steer away from relegation trouble without the required quality to trouble the top 6. Furtive glances may now be cast, as Stevenage smash straight through a radar they flew neither under nor over.
In beating Exeter on Saturday, they scored four goals in a league game for the first time in three years, as the stolid, fine-margin stuff gave way to a special afternoon for their fans. Make no mistake: a run of five away games undefeated, 22 points from 12 games, and the second-best xGA in the division (21.2) is all founded on their defensive strengths. But now, freed from the shackles of looking backwards, the most remarkable EFL story is live, loose and kicking. Just four points off the play-offs, Alex Revell must be looking at upcoming games against Crawley, Posh and Shrewsbury and thinking… what if?
🪹 Robins run riot — Carlisle 1-5 Swindon — When you’re in the kind of predicament that Carlisle find themselves in, you want to be facing teams who are struggling, not one of the league’s form horses. Ian Holloway’s Swindon put five past Mike Williamson’s strugglers on another harrowing afternoon at Brunton Park. Joe Hugill’s excellent strike late on was the highlight of the afternoon for the home faithful, but they couldn’t even enjoy that for long – Paul Glatzel scored just over a minute later and Will Wright completed the rout with a calamitous Olympic goal in the 96th minute. This result, coupled with Morecambe’s victory over Fleetwood, sees Carlisle return to the foot of the table. Swindon, meanwhile, have won four league games in a row for the first time since May 2022; having been 22nd when Holloway took charge, they’re now 14th, some 14 points clear of the bottom two and just 10 points off the top seven.
🟢 Sorry, what Park? — Plymouth Argyle 2-1 WBA — Few EFL teams have channelled “main character energy” like Argyle this season. Part of that is down to their former manager, part of it due to their relegation fight starting on day one, and another part — perhaps the biggest — courtesy of their consistent late-late shows. There was another one here. When Jed Wallace picked out Jayson Molumby to put Baggies in front, it looked like another desperate day, but then the referee awarded a penalty for handball moments later and substitute Ryan Hardie scored it with his second touch, before nicking another with two minutes to spare of normal time. A whopping 84% of Argyle’s tally (21 of 25) have come on their own patch; it’s called Home Park for a reason, and Miron Muslic’s side stay in touch with those above them, despite remaining rooted to the bottom.
🐶 Terriers make a dog’s dinner of it — Northampton 3-2 Huddersfield — While Birmingham, Wrexham, and Stockport all scraped narrow wins and Wycombe let Cambridge snatch a draw, Huddersfield had an absolute shocker – 3-0 down by the 51st minute. The real damage? Hard to say. But after a dire first half in which Michael Duff’s side managed just two shots and shipped two goals, the warning signs are flashing. Put bluntly, the defending was dreadful. Northampton bullied them. Callum Marshall’s arrival gave Huddersfield a spark, but there’s a worrying trend here: the Terriers have conceded the first goal six times in their last ten games. That’s a habit they can’t afford to keep. As for Cobblers, Kevin Nolan’s first win gives them a nice big exhale, but they’ll need all that oxygen to fend off the upwardly mobile teams below.
🦌 Stags sloppy, Salop party — Shrewsbury 2-1 Mansfield — After a run of four defeats in a row in all competitions, Mansfield fans would have been forgiven for thinking their luck had turned when Will Evans put them 1-0 up against Shrewsbury after five minutes and Toto Nsiala was sent off after 34 minutes. But Gareth Ainsworth’s side were having none of it. John Marquis pulled Salop level after the break, before George Lloyd completed the comeback just after the hour mark. The Stags huffed and puffed but, despite their man advantage, their 21 shots and their 2.00 xG generated, they left Shropshire empty-handed. In true ‘Wild Thing’ fashion, Shrewsbury put their bodies on the line and revelled in grinding out the victory when the odds were stacked against them.
🏞️ Wimbledon Common Scoreline — AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Bradford — It may not be tight at the very top of League Two (not yet, anyway!), but the jostling for position behind Walsall continues. Doncaster and Notts County enjoyed 2-1 wins over MK Dons and Gillingham respectively, while James Tilley’s 13th-minute header proved to be the difference between AFC Wimbledon and Bradford. Johnnie Jackson’s Dons have moved up to 4th and are now unbeaten in seven games. They’ve also kept the most clean sheets in the fourth tier this season (13). As for Bradford, they’ve dropped to 7th after their first defeat since 21st December.
📈 More to Cambe? — Morecambe 4-2 Fleetwood — If you thought that Morecambe were going to go quietly, think again! After losing their last three league games 1-0, Derek Adams’ side went positively goal-crazy, beating Fleetwood 4-2 at The Mazuma. Andy Dallas scored twice on his debut, while Callum Cooke and Marcus Dackers also scored their first league goals for the club. It’s the first time that Morecambe have scored four or more goals in a league game since December 2023, and with Tranmere continuing to struggle, the Shrimps are now just three points from safety.
📊 Monday Morning Cheat Sheet
From the WhatsApp group to the watercooler: stats to keep you ahead of the game.
0️⃣ Bur Ton of 0-0s — Only three teams in England’s top four tiers (Burnley, West Brom and Stevenage) have had more 0-0 draws than Burton Albion (5), with the latest meaning Brewers go five games unbeaten for the first time this season. The reason? Maybe it has something to do with Gary Bowyer having picked the same starting XI for four games running, despite the club making 28 signings this season.
🪖 On the Warne path — Derby County fans aren’t happy, voicing their frustration after a defeat to Sheffield United – they’ve failed to score in their last 4 home matches.
🚍 On the road — With a stoppage-time winner against Crawley Town, Wrexham won an away league game in which they conceded for the first time this season.
💃 Quirky Piroette — Joël Piroe may be Leeds’ top scorer, but only 2 of his 12 goals have given them the lead or a share of it – the rest have all come with his side already winning.
😁 Grime or you’ll miss it — This weekend was the first time since 4th March 2023 that Matt Grimes has missed a minute of league action (having been diplomatically ‘rested’ for Swansea v Coventry following his transfer from the former to the latter).
🤿 Deep trouble — Jordan Jones picked up the ignominious honour of being sent off for two dives and two resulting yellow cards. Unfortunately for him and Carlisle, they both looked quite harsh.
📱 Col U FTW — Colchester United have now won three of their last four league games; that’s as many as they had in their previous 17, with the latest victory over Tranmere marking their first back-to-back wins since April.
🎱 The Hateful Eight — Three EFL teams, one from each league, have failed to win in their past eight matches, the longest such run without tasting victory: they are Luton Town, Exeter City and Gillingham.
🪑 Bench Brigade — Super-sub Danny Johnson came off the bench to hit a brace for Walsall, meaning he’s scored more goals as a substitute (4) than any other player in League Two this season.
🔷 Turning Blue — Birmingham City have gained more points from losing positions than any other side in England’s top four tiers this season (20), coming from behind to beat Rotherham United 2-1 on Saturday.
👮♂️ Yes, Sarge — Norwich City’s Josh Sargent has been involved in nine goals in his last eight starts in the Championship (5 goals, 4 assists), and netted the winner against Watford.
🎯 Danny on the mark — Dan James has now had at least one shot on target in each of his last 8 games.
⏲️ Double-quick time — A super fast start at the Den, where Millwall took the lead after 31 seconds against QPR, with the Hoops equalising just 1 minute and 48 seconds later.
🎸 Didzy Thrillespie — With his beautiful chip (see 5iveLights), David McGoldrick has now scored more away goals than any other player in League Two this campaign (8), making this his most prolific season away from home for more than a decade.
🎦 5ivelights
In no particular order, a collection of our favourite goals or clips from across the 72.
There are more beautiful goals than this one scored by Danny Rose, but the childlike ingenuity is pure playground stuff.
Getting in on the ingenuity act, Brandon Thomas-Asante’s first-time lob for Cov was absolutely sensational - grim(e) watching for Swansea though, losing the ball deep in midfield after selling Matt Grimes to… erm, Coventry.
After 1,596 League Two minutes, Marcus Dacker bagged his first goal for Morecambe this season and just watch - it meant so, so, much.
Of all the Didzy-doing-Didzy-things moments this season, perhaps this disguised chip is the most Didzy of them all — the most joyful footballer.
And finally, perhaps the cleanest of them all, perhaps the cleanest strike of the season — Alfie Doughty’s long-distance laser.
The View From…
To quote Sir Alex Ferguson, ‘Attack wins you games, defence wins you titles.’
From a defensive point of view, Scott Parker’s Burnley are among the best of the best. After their goalless draw with Portsmouth on Saturday, they’ve now kept eight clean sheets in a row in the league and a whopping 21 in total (more than any Championship team achieved in the entirety of last season). They’ve conceded nine goals in 30 league games. Records are being broken left, right and centre. Only Chelsea’s class of 2004/05 can compete with those kinds of numbers. From James Trafford in goal to Maxime Esteve and CJ Egan-Riley in front of him, to Josh Cullen and Josh Laurent in front of them, Burnley are an incredibly tight defensive unit.
However, to win titles, you have to win games. Quite simply, Burnley’s attack is not winning them enough games. The Clarets have scored 36 goals in 30 league games this season. Ten Championship teams have scored more goals than Scott Parker’s men so far. A staggering 20 Championship teams have a higher non-penalty xG. Burnley have played out ten 0-0 draws this season, which equates to exactly a third of their league games. Goalless draws against the likes of Sunderland and Leeds are acceptable, but firing blanks at home to Preston, QPR, Derby and Stoke, and away from home against Oxford (pre-Gary Rowett) and Portsmouth, is a problem. Since Christmas, Burnley’s cumulative score is 8-0 across their eight league games, but five of those goals came in one half down in Plymouth, so that’s three goals scored in the other 15 halves of football.
The Clarets could (and probably should) have had a late penalty at Fratton Park on Saturday but, as Scott Parker said himself, they simply didn’t do enough to warrant all three points. They offered considerably more going forward than they did against Leeds, but that isn’t saying much. And how did Leeds respond to that Monday night snoozefest? They beat Cardiff 7-0 at Elland Road. In the absence of Josh Brownhill – Burnley’s top scorer and shining light – others failed to step up. Brownhill has nine goals to his name this season, while summer arrival Zian Flemming has six. After that, you have to go down to Jaidon Anthony with three goals and four players with two goals. Will the highly-rated Marcus Edwards make the difference? Can Lyle Foster and Jeremy Sarmiento rediscover their scoring touch? Or is Scott Parker going to have to convince Ashley Barnes that he’s playing against Blackburn every week?
You have to go back to the 2014/15 Championship season for the team with the best/joint-best defensive record not winning automatic promotion; however, in the modern Championship, it’s becoming increasingly clear that you need two points per game to finish in the top two. Both Leicester (2.11) and Ipswich (2.09) achieved it last season and both Leeds (2.10) and Sheffield United (2.03 or 2.10 without their two-point deduction) are on course to achieve it this season. With 1.93 points per game, Burnley are not.
Given the ever-increasing gap between the Premier League and the Championship and based on the evidence of the last couple of seasons, it’s more important than ever for newly-promoted sides to be defensively sound. Just ask Vincent Kompany’s Burnley, who racked up 101 Championship points, scoring 87 goals in the process, but were relegated after conceding 78 goals in the Premier League (which seems almost stingy compared to Sheffield United’s 104 goals against!).
The defensive foundations that Scott Parker has laid would almost certainly help Burnley to stay in games and be competitive in the Premier League. But they need to get out of the Championship first.
📕 The Form Book
Which sides are topping the four-game form guide and which sides are bottoming out?
Championship
🟩 Coventry | 12pts | W4 | GD +6*
🟩 Leeds | 10pts | W3 D1 | GD +12
🟩 Millwall | 10pts | W3 D1 | GD +3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
🟥 Luton | 2pt | D2 L2 | GD -2*
🟥 Derby | 0pts | L4 | GD -5*
🟥 Swansea | 0pt | L4 | GD -10*
League One
🟩 Stockport | 12pts | W4 | GD +6
🟩 Burton | 10pts | W3 D1 | GD +4
🟩 Charlton | 10pts | W3 D1 | GD +4
🟩 Birmingham | 10pts | W3 D1 | GD +3*
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
🟥 Huddersfield | 1pt | D1 L3 | GD -3
🟥 Barnsley | 1pt | D1 L3 | GD -4
🟥 Exeter | 1pt | D1 L3 | GD -9*
🟥 Mansfield | 0pts | L4 | GD -4
League Two
🟩 Swindon | 12pts | W4 | GD +9
🟩 Doncaster | 12pts | W4 | GD +5
🟩 Notts County/Colchester/Port Vale | 10pts | W3 D1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
🟥 Gillingham*/Harrogate/Salford | 2pts | D2 L2
🟥 Tranmere | 1pts | D1 L3 | GD -6
🟥 Bromley | 1pts | D1 L3 | GD -6
*Asterisk marks the teams that have remained in the top or bottom places in the four-game form guide.
🏆 Fantasy Football
Go head-to-head against team NTT20 in our EFL Fantasy Football league
There’s a well-formed pattern now: pick Burnley defenders. To go against that meta is to fall by the wayside. And whilst we had two <0.1% picks in our team this week (Paal and Imray), Ali couldn’t stray too far down a non-Burnley, non-Leeds rabbit hole.
For his efforts we were rewarded with 76 points, taking us up to 112th place in the NTT20 League Table. Mrs Browne’s Boys are building a lead at the top, but this week the top score came from Williams’ Wanderers with 105 points. Tidy.
Great as always 🧡 just wanted to flag the 'Bromely' / Bromley typo in the form guide ✌🏻