Higher or lower: Boro, Bristol City, Norwich, Northampton, Salford & Tranmere

Six clubs are W2 D2 L2 – Huw Davies assesses/guesses which of them will end up on the right side of average

Ali says I’m allowed to look at the league table now.

The gaffer set me a task: observe the EFL clubs who have so far achieved average results and try to predict who will improve, who’ll get worse and who will end the season with the nerd’s dream return of W15 D16 L15 (I’ll always remember you, Oxford United 2014/15). Six teams have a record so far of won two, drawn two, lost two. None of them also have a 0 goal difference, which is quite distressing, but in terms of pure results, they’re peak average.

Let’s take a look at each of them and ask, in our best Bruce Forsyth impression: higher or lower?

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MIDDLESBROUGH

• W 1-0 v Swansea (H)

• L 0-1 v Derby (A)

• D 2-2 v Portsmouth (H)

• W 2-0 v Cardiff (A)

• D 1-1 v Preston (H)

• L 0-1 v Sunderland (A)

I’m neutral here, but part of me did hope I could burst a few Boro bubbles just to make things interesting. After more than a year of nodding sagely when fans say their performances have merited more points, I reckon it’s time to stick the boot in and twist the knife (the knife is embedded in the sole of the boot). I am the great disruptor! I – oh crap, they’re right.

Credit: fbref.com

Middlesbrough’s attacking threat is obvious: they have the highest xG in the Championship, are the first team to have taken 100 shots, have made the most final-third passes and could charge rent in opponents’ 18-yard boxes. Defensively, they’ve allowed the fewest shots on target (11) and the fewest headed efforts, giving up precious little from set pieces, while Leeds alone have had their area penetrated less often.

With the caveat that Boro trailing Derby 1-0 for 80 minutes does have an impact here, just look at the number of touches they’ve taken in the opposition area and allowed in their own: 

Graphic design is my passion

…or, if you prefer, shots taken vs shots allowed:

Credit: @BeGriffis

What’s going awry, then? 

In attack, Boro have missed a dozen big chances, a total bettered (worsed?) by only three teams. They’re creating opportunities to score, with through balls a particularly strong factor, but aren’t putting them away. They’ve hosted three teams in the league:

• Against Swansea, Middlesbrough mustered over 2 non-penalty xG but needed a non-non-penalty for them to win 1-0;

• Against Portsmouth, a spotkick saved Boro again as they won the shot count 30-7 but drew the goal count 2-2;

• And against Preston, they dropped another two points by turning 4 big chances into 1 medium-sized goal.

Emmanuel Latte Lath, Finn Azaz, Isaiah Jones, Delano Burgzorg, Aidan Morris and Hayden Hackney – Middlesbrough’s six most trigger-happy players this season – have shared 75 non-penalty shots with a combined xG worth 6.9. Combined non-penalty goals: 0. Remove his successful spotkick from the shot map below and just one of Latte Lath’s 10 shots was on target; the fact that it was a bicycle kick only raises more questions.

Latte Lath shot map (Credit: FotMob)

Latte Lath has been wasteful. Azaz, however, seems to have angered a local warlock. Scoring zero goals from 19 shots might normally imply poor finishing and/or shot selection, but turning 1.4 xG into 3.3 xGOT actually implies the exact opposite – he has, in fact, been very unlucky to face several goalkeepers having a supernaturally good day:

Azaz shots on target map (Credit: FotMob)

It’s the exact opposite at the other end. At this stage last season, Seny Dieng was showing up badly for shot-stopping statistics because opponents kept unleashing worldies past him. This season, Dieng has actually had very little to do but is still showing up badly in the stats: he has faced 11 shots on target, saving five (four that I could have saved and one that many professionals wouldn’t have) and conceding five, with the other beating him but being stopped on the line by Luke Ayling. Of those five concessions, three were open goals, and you literally can’t save those. 

Still, don’t feel too sorry for him:

That Portsmouth goal is Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough in microcosm: balls-up → ball in net. Actually, no – what really summarises Boro is losing 1-0 to Derby because Isaiah Jones attempted a backpass from well inside the opposition half.

The problem is that, like almost every team, Middlesbrough will always do something stupid in a match – but they’re disproportionately punished for it. They’ve made three errors leading to a shot, per Opta Analyst, and all three have been converted, while four other clubs have made as many or more and got away with it every time. 

It’s not just down to luck, and Boro enjoyed some of their own against Cardiff, but the problem doesn’t appear systemic. Going forward, meanwhile, Azaz is due a bit of positive variance and Latte Lath showed last season that he can suddenly turn weeks of poor finishing into an extraordinary hot streak. There’s no reason for fans to panic – just plenty of reasons to be very, very annoyed right now.

VERDICT: HIGHER

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BRISTOL CITY

• D 1-1 v Hull (A)

• W 4-3 v Millwall (H)

• D 1-1 v Coventry (H)

• L 0-3 v Derby (A)

• L 0-3 v Blackburn (A)

• W 2-1 v Oxford (H)