Mailbag: "Applying Gel To EFL Teams, The Data Edge, Revising Our 1-24s & more..."
A game of Mailbag Volleyball - you set 'em, we spike 'em. Free for all to read!
Ali Maxwell
What’s your favourite type of bag? I like a rucksack. I like a grab bag in the crisps sphere. I have a handy bum-bag which I take on a walk with Nettle, containing treats, poo bags (another great bag) and her favourite ball. But the bags I like most? Mailbags.
This is our first mid-season Mailbag. It’s available for all subscribers - free or paid. And it’s a cracker! Thanks to everyone who sent in a head-scratcher. I’ve managed to kill off all other contributors, so it’s just me answering your questions this time.
We’ve been producing Proper Content for around six weeks now. It has been a complete pleasure. I hope you’re enjoying the addition of the Newsletter to your life. It would be great to hear from you in the comments, things such as: what you enjoy about it, what you look forward to most, but also… any changes you’d like to request or suggest to make The EFL Newsletter by NTT20 better.
Matt asks:
If you were to redo your 1-24s now, which team in each 3 divisions would you move up the most and which team would you move down the most, based on their business (or lack of) in the window and subsequent start to the season?
MOVE UP:
Norwich City (14th in 1-24s)
Stevenage (16th)
AFC Wimbledon (16th)
MOVE DOWN:
Millwall (7th)
Burton Albion (13th)
Salford City (6th)
Chris Whiffin asks
We hear a lot about how the likes of Brentford and Brighton are great at using data but which EFL clubs do you think use it best?
It’s very, very difficult from the outside to know exactly how teams are ‘using data’ and who the real Tech Bros are. But it’s something I think about a lot!
What we do know, is that almost every team now has access to it in some form or another. But most EFL clubs will be using the same two or three platforms or data products. Those who have excellent teams of data-literate staff will be able to take raw data and build their own models, which adds a lot of value. But those who don’t have the resources (or inclination) to build a staff with that ability are likely looking at the same numbers, tweaking the same parameters on player searches in order to find the same transfer targets.
It felt like such a massive edge in recruitment five years ago. Filtering tens of thousands of players, using selected metrics to generate shortlists for certain roles that are important to the way you play? Genius! We have the whole world at our fingertips!
Now, I would say the ‘using data’ edge is mostly gone. If everyone is doing it, and the same names are coming up, is that an edge?
Of course, ‘using data’ is not just about player recruitment. It helps with training and preparation - you can use data to generate opposition reports, saving a lot of time. It is a big part of sports science and conditioning, marketing, ticketing, providing fan insight and many other aspects. But there’s no way we can accurately judge teams from the outside on those aspects, we simply have no idea what’s going on behind the curtain.
With Brentford and Brighton, it’s not just been about finding gems, although they have smashed that out of the park. The most important thing is employing and empowering strong decision-makers, ones that embrace data, both by taking it seriously but also understanding its blind spots, and ultimately using it as one input (of many) to help you make good decisions over a long period of time.
A club with a culture of good decision-making and a sturdy structure that doesn’t get buffeted by the high winds of emotion? That’s Brentford. That’s Brighton.
In that sense, you have to look at Plymouth Argyle as the standard bearer. It helps that its owner Simon Hallet has been so open and specific about their relationship with data. This Five Year Plan from 2020 is great to read, written when Argyle were in League Two.
It has to come from the top down, and it has to be for life, not just a Wyscout account for Christmas.
Then there’s Barnsley, who operate in an openly data-driven manner. They are braver than most teams of their size when it comes to signing certain players based on certain strong data points that plug into a specific way of playing. They have a good track record of hiring Managers in a similar manner. In terms of player trading and manager recruitment, I would say being data-driven has had a positive impact. They made the Championship Play-Off against all odds, with a ridiculously young team… but now they’re in a lower division than when they started, so it’s hard to argue it’s been highly successful on a wider scale.
I find Barnsley’s approach to it interesting, but ultimately quite cold and formulaic. I don’t believe the way it has been explained to fans has ever hit the right notes, and I don’t think they have achieved the sort of longevity in personnel, on or off the pitch, that leads to consistency. And if you want long-term success, rather than just one epic season here and there, you have to have consistency from top to bottom.
Adam asks:
Compared to what you expected, which teams have most positively changed their outlook for the rest of the season with their transfer business in the latter parts of the window?
I weight summer transfer business less strongly than most when it comes to judging the outlook of a team. Even more so when the season has already started, and new signings are going to have to get up to speed quickly; if they don’t, and they’re not making an impact on the team until the season is 10 games old, is that a great signing?
I see summer transfer business as only one aspect of the whole picture. Other aspects I would strongly consider when trying to evaluate teams, or form opinions, would be:
What’s the level of the existing players? Where does the squad look light or deep?
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the team? What are the areas of the team’s performance that needs to be improved?
Do they appear to be bought into the Manager’s ideas?
Is the Manager setting his team up in a way that brings the best out of the players?
Is the atmosphere at the club positive? Is there stability off the field, providing support for the Manager?
[Stop being boring, Ali - Ed.]
HOWEVER… having better players is never a bad thing! So if the task is just to focus on transfers, here are a few teams that I think gave their Manager some sharper tools in the latter part of the window, which I will define as any transfer concluded after the start of the league season, 5th August onwards:
Birmingham City: Jay Stansfield, Cody Drameh
Hull City: Jaden Philogene, Scott Twine, Tyler Morton
Stevenage: Harvey White, Charlie McNeill, Harrison Neal, Kane Hemmings
Colchester United: Joe Taylor, Cameron McGeehan, Mandela Egbo, Zach Mitchell, Jay Mingi, Owura Edwards
Jacob Powley asks:
With high player turnover among a lot of the Championship promotion favourites, there has been lots of talk of teams “gelling” as the season goes on. However by definition not every team can move up the table. Which sides do you think are most likely to see big improvements once the new signings bed in or the manager’s ideas become ingrained?
And likewise, the one you feel is going to underperform? (Sacha Zarb)
(First off, please take a shot of your favourite liquor every time you read the word “gel or “gelling”).
We all think we have a strong grasp of the gelling concept, but actually predicting the impact of ‘gelling’ is so difficult. The way the human brain works, you can talk yourself into most teams ‘gelling’ over time.
But, as Jacob suggests, if every team gels over time… do any of them get any actual benefit from the gelling, or does all the gel cancel itself out?
Process Managers are the ones who are generally considered to be the ones for whom gelling is most likely and most consequential. I don’t really enjoy categorising Managers in this way, as if there is another group of ‘non-process Managers’, the Results Bois, Proper Football Men, who don’t need or deserve any time to work on implementing their cavemen styles.
Let’s be honest, everyone’s looking at Enzo Maresca. We’re looking at Russell Martin. Perhaps Liam Rosenior. Their style of football, in its strongest form, involves dominating the football match in terms of possession and territory. Imposing themselves and suffocating teams with control. So far, none of those teams has looked particularly controlled. Should we assume that in three months’ time, everything will be settled, all the kinks ironed out by an increased level of comfort and training ground repetition?
Confirmation bias/outcome bias dictates that we can all provide examples of teams that started slowly and then gelled like hell. We likely have less of a strong memory of those that started slowly and just carried on gel-less.
For Southampton, the new signings that could feasibly have a big post-gel impact are Taylor Harwood Bellis and Flynn Downes. And Ross Stewart, who is unlikely to be physically ready to regularly impact games by October at the earliest.
For Leicester, I suppose it’s Conor Coady, Tom Cannon, Cesare Casadei and the dribbly wingers Yunus Akgun, and Issahaku Fattawu.
As for Sacha asking for a ‘No Gel Prediction’, my natural concern would be to look at Stoke and Sheffield Wednesday in particular, just due to the sheer volume of signings they’ve made with no experience of English football, and the fact that - having signed so many players in the last few weeks - the success or failure of their season is heavily dependent on how well the new signings bed in.
Sheffield Wednesday: Djeidi Gassama, Pol Valentin, Juan Delgado, Anthony Musaba, Momo Diaby, Devis Vasquez.
Stoke City: Wouter Berger, Ryan Mmaee, Joon-ho Bae, Nikola Jojic, Andre Vidigal, Mehdi Leris.
Middlesbrough too, to a lesser extent. And while Sunderland also have another batch of young talent in the building, there’s already a strong, settled team that should deliver certain standards even if they take time to develop.
Luke asks:
Which of the 3 leagues do you think has the potential to have the most exciting promotion battle? And which are you most concerned about having a runaway top 2/3??
It’s still early enough in the season that I’m fully excited about all three leagues. I don’t think we have a clear idea of what the top of the Championship will look like at Christmas. I think League One may be the least exciting, with one or two bits of cream rising to the top, but so far it’s nice and tight. League Two is beautiful chaos and I expect that to continue all the way.
Billy asks:
Before the season I think there was a consensus bottom 4/5 in the Championship. Listening to the Monday pod it seems you’re more positive about QPR, Huddersfield, Rotherham and Cardiff (although probably not Sheffield Wednesday). Obviously *someone* has to go down. So are there any teams who weren’t in that conversation pre-season who have given you more cause for concern (even if the results don’t necessarily reflect it)?
You are right, I am broadly more positive about all those teams than pre-season. So this is a great question.
Because it’s not like there are three other surprise basket cases that can take the place of pre-season relegation favourites. Weirdly, despite being pleasantly surprised by their start to season, those teams are still the most likely to go down.
I’ll mention Swansea and Millwall, and my approach is based on this:
A below-part start can be exacerbated by a sacking followed by an appointment that has no impact whatsoever— Mark Hudson and Mark Fotheringham at Cardiff and Huddersfield last season spring to mind.
That’s when things can really spiral. Of course, both teams stayed up in the end, but rolling the dice once again and hoping for double sixes is a dangerous game.
Looking at I guess Swansea would be chucked into that. Is the team actually good for the level? If they sacked Duff, what sort of manager would they turn to? Go back towards a Possession Lover in order to cling onto the buoy marked The Swansea Way?
I’d also be keeping an eye on Millwall, because if they end up sacking Rowett and make a poor appointment, I could see a scenario where standards drop quite a bit. And in this seemingly unforgiving Championship, that could be an issue.
Tom Cheetham asks:
Who do we think will go down in the Championship at this moment?
It’s an interesting question because one of my stances right now is the Championship is strong. By that, I don’t mean that there are two or three standout teams.
In fact, the opposite: I think the floor of the Championship is much higher. I think the worse teams are better. On a general level, Championship clubs have been getting better. Better recruitment, mostly better decision making, Managers who are better tactically than ever before…
This means that you can be doing things right and still be dragged into a relegation fight, by dint of everyone else also doing things right.
Gun to my head? Right now, I think Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield are most likely. For my third pick, it’s a toss-up between Rotherham, QPR and Swansea.
Alex Strange asks:
I am utterly conflicted over Cardiff’s start to the season…it’s been refreshing to see us look somewhat threatening as an attacking force….having said that we’ve taken a step backwards defensively having thrown away 2-goal leads twice. With so many new players and a new manager are you confident that it will click with time and as the players get to know each other more and that we should just be patient or is there cause for concern?
I think that patience and hope are on the agenda.
Like you, I have been highly refreshed by a Cardiff team that attacks regularly and attacks well. One that has a plan in the final third and quality players combining well. It’s really exciting. I’m willing to wait a few more games before I agree that there’s been a ‘step back defensively.’
The fact is, Cardiff have already played Leicester, Leeds and Ipswich away. Taking pre-season odds as a proxy for team rating, you’ve played three of your six toughest fixtures. Watching the 10 goals Cardiff have conceded, some of them have been sublime (Broadhead, Bannan), some of them ridiculous (Ladapo x2, Armstrong).
In home games vs QPR and Sheff Wed, you’ve only faced 17 shots. While the three goals conceded were disappointing, it’s still a decent blueprint for a stronger defensive record than you’re currently showing.
I think the goals conceded column will look a little better in another five matches. Hopefully, that will provide even more confidence to the team. There’s been plenty to like. But all this could go out the window if you lose heavily at home to Swansea City on Saturday!
Craig Bradley asks:
How good are Lincoln? But for 90+4 Bristol Rovers and 90+8 Northampton equalisers, they’d have won every match since the opening day defeat to Bolton. Why aren’t they being spoken about more? Are they automatic promotion contenders?
How good are Lincoln? Well, they are very good defensively. With a solid back five and two sturdy central midfielders in front of it, they’re giving up very few clear-cut chances. Not only that, they have a good goalkeeper in Lukas Jensen.
You could look at 10 goals in five league games and that would be enough to assume they’re also good going forward, but when you dig deeper, there’s little to suggest that they are a sustainably strong attacking side. Only Shrewsbury have had fewer shots. It’s true that Lincoln’s counter-attacking style means they’re unlikely to take a ton of shots, but they’ve looked out of ideas when they haven’t been able to counter attack and have had long periods in games where they’ve not created anything.
Why aren’t they being spoken about more? Good question. In League One, there are 14 teams separated by five points. All of them have won a few and failed to win a few, and Lincoln are part of that. It’s definitely compelling to point out the late concession of equalisers vs Rovers and Northampton, though I guess you’d want to see a proven ability to see out narrow wins when put under pressure if you’re looking for a promotion challenge? Equally, they scored a 79th-minute winner against Shrewsbury after offering little in that game.
Automatic promotion contenders? There’s not much to gain from saying no, because I will look very stupid if they’re up there! But what’s the point in sitting on the fence? They couldn’t get near Bolton Wanderers on Opening Day. The best they’ve looked was a 3-0 win against Blackpool where they scored two penalties and a deflected strike from 20 yards, and a 20-minute period against Wycombe in which they scored three goals against an imploding Chairboys defence— they’d barely had a shot until the hour mark in that game.
I will be very, very surprised if they are automatic promotion contenders. In order for that to happen, they will have to get a lot better at asserting themselves and dominating football matches against the division’s sizeable mid-table batch.
But that all seems too negative, and judging them at the highest possible standards.
I really respect the way Lincoln is run. I think they’re likely among one of the smartest clubs in League One and Two, and they will benefit from that over the mid to long-term. They have a young, exciting squad, without a single player over 30. After Adam Jackson, their oldest players are Tyler Walker and Teddy Bishop, both of whom I definitely think of as a ‘young’ 27! They’ve got Freddie Draper excelling on loan at Walsall, looking a perfect fit for Lincoln’s own style.
I love the way they have built the squad. I see them as a club on an upwards trajectory, and I think they could get stronger as the season progresses. Right now, on the six games we have so far, I’m still struggling to see them being one of the two best teams in the division, and would like to see a few more statements wins.
The most exciting thing would be if they can build on those two 3-0 home league wins and turn Sincil Bank into a fortress this season. I’m not convinced their style of play lends itself to the dominance needed for that. They’re playing a direct style, and they do look dangerous on the counter attack but haven’t found an attacking rhythm that sees them create many chances. I don’t think their forward players are a strong enough unit to create chances without much being created for them. I would like to see them move away from a 3atb formation and try to become a more potent attacking team. I believe they could retain the out-of-possession quality with a back four and Erhahon and Hamilton screening, and they have the squad options to play 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2. Ben House is a selfless attacker with plenty of qualities, but is yet to show a goalscoring instinct— hopefully, either Jack Vale or Tyler Walker will be able to come into the team to focus on goals and benefit from having House as the foil. The risk is if they don’t achieve it, and lose some of their defensive quality attempting to do so.
James H:
Which team has so far gone most under the radar per league do you think? Barrow would spring to mind for L2 in my opinion.
Well, I feel like we are partially responsible for who is on or off the radar, so it’s a tough one to answer! Maybe Coventry, in the Championship, as they’ve only won one of five Possibly Lincoln, as per Craig’s question above, although Port Vale have a stronger shout. I’ll go with Accrington in League Two.
Conor asks
Something needs to be done to stop owners and fans from their own stupidity... so how about points deductions for changing managers mid-season? Might make these owners and fans think twice before demanding blood, while also allowing for better player development as a result of coaching consistency!
Conor, I would be bang up for this. Sadly there is no chance in hell, but I’ll bang the drum. Like many other things that would likely improve football in certain ways, it would cause unbelievable angst for quite a long period of time… but the destination would be worth the journey.
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