Nine bold predictions – using only the fixture list

The remaining schedule will have a big impact on which teams are heading up, down and out. Sorry, Saints…

Huw Davies

Everybody plays each other twice. The same wags say it every year with the release of the fixture list, and you can’t fault the argument. But the way those fixtures fall do make a difference, and could make a difference from now to the season’s end.

We’re actually in the middle of the listing HMS Fixture List re-righting itself. In redressing the imbalance caused by postponements (snow, flooding, international call-ups, The Traitors being on), Blackpool have just begun a run of six away trips in eight games, appropriately turning the schedule’s traditional home-away guffaw into more of a scream – from HAHAHAHA to AAHAAHAH. Peterborough have just embarked on the opposite journey: six matches at London Road, a mere two elsewhere. Wimbledon start their own artist’s residence this weekend, playing six of their next eight fixtures at Plough Lane – handy, given they’ve won six of their last seven league meetings there.

It’s all starting to even up again. 

Yet there are still imbalances. Across the final third of the season, they could be the difference between promotion and stagnation, or reprieve and relegation. I’ve found a few examples across the Football League, presented below – a sort of Statistical Tapas, to steal Ali’s phrase – and I plan to make billions with the cast-iron, copper-bottomed, zinc-alloy predictions I’ve drawn from them.

There’s some Devil’s Advocate at work here. And maybe it’ll all be proven wrong. A month ago, I said Bristol Rovers would fly up the League One table due to a friendly schedule; they duly won the hard games and lost the easy ones.

But for now, enjoy these piping-hot tapas takes…

PREDICTION: IPSWICH WILL OVERTAKE SOUTHAMPTON AGAIN

Kieran McKenna’s Tractor Boys may have had a wobble but they still picked up points – and against good sides. Their oft-mentioned run of one win in nine, before last night’s victory over Millwall, featured just two defeats despite including a pair of fixtures against Leicester and another five against clubs in the top 10. Ipswich are actually the only team Leicester have faced twice and failed to beat. 

Meanwhile, they’ve fared well all season against the division’s worst teams, and that’s exactly who they have coming up. While there’s an element of flat-track bullying about each of the Championship’s runaway top four, who collectively average more than 2.5 points per game against bottom-half sides, Ipswich haven’t lost to any team outside the current top 10 and they have nearly all of them still to play.

For Southampton, it’s the exact opposite. Soccerstats.com calculates the difficulty of a team’s run-in by using each past and future opponent’s separate home and away records, and comparing what’s to come against what’s gone before. Saints register the biggest difference by a huge margin – more of a chasm – with both the ‘easiest’ schedule so far (against opponents who average just 1.25ppg in their home or away fixtures, depending where Southampton faced them) and the toughest still to come (1.57ppg, a full 26% more difficult). In short, virtually all of the crisis clubs are in their rear-view mirror while eight of the top 10 lurk on the horizon. Gulp.

And in Southampton’s case, that does matter. Before Tuesday’s defeat to Bristol City, who were 13th before kick-off, Saints had taken 50 points from a possible 54 when facing teams in the bottom half. Played 18. Won 16. Drew 2. That’s 2.77ppg, whereas against teams in the top half, they averaged just 1.16ppg. No wonder the Robins scared them – beating Southampton moved them into the top half.

Saints’ remarkable 25-match unbeaten run before this week was no fluke. However, the friendlier run of fixtures did coincide with their defenders learning not to pass to the opposition 20 yards from goal. The good news is that Russell Martin’s side now have more confidence, tactical understanding and squad depth – but they do need to prove they can perform against their rivals.

PREDICTION: CARDIFF’S SLIDE WILL CONTINUE

Cardiff’s attack is wholly reliant on set-pieces right now. That isn’t a criticism of style, but of substance, and it isn’t an exaggeration, either. Erol Bulut’s side have scored only six goals in their nine games since Christmas: three from corners, plus one own goal that had nothing to do with them, a 20-yard pearler from Josh Bowler – above all, just a piece of individual brilliance – and another 20-yard pearler from Karlan Grant… which came from a corner.

And to make matters worse, their dead-ball threat doesn’t look sustainable. The problem isn’t just that set-piece goals account for 44% of the Bluebirds’ season tally (50% if you include penalties); it’s that they’ve come from an xG worth less than half that.

Source: Opta Analyst

Now for the kicker. Cardiff’s remaining fixtures are against teams who can mostly keep opponents at bay from free-kicks and corners. Of the eight teams with the division’s best defensive set-piece records, in terms of xG conceded, Cardiff played one on Tuesday, naturally failing to score against West Bromwich Albion, and have six of the others still to come. 

It only gets harder from here. They need to find a new route to goal, and fast. Or slow. Just not from dead balls all of the time.

PREDICTION: THINGS WILL GET WORSE FOR CHARLTON BEFORE THEY GET BETTER (IF THEY GET BETTER)

At the moment, Charlton’s home is less Happy Valley and more Valley of the Shadow of Death. They haven’t won a match since November, haven’t kept a clean sheet since September, and although the talismanic George Dobson is now staying until the season’s end, it’s in the most awkward of circumstances: his move to Hungary was all but completed, according to Fehervar, only for Charlton to pull the plug at the last minute.

So the last thing Nathan Jones needs is a horrible run of fixtures, having taken one point from his first two against Reading and Lincoln. The Addicks face each of League One’s top three in their next three matches, followed immediately by two away trips in four days. Fun fact: they’ve won away once all season.

It’s likely that Charlton will be below the dotted line in March, but things do become easier after that. To quote their manager’s philosophical namesake in Walmington-on-Sea: don’t panic.

PREDICTION: PORTSMOUTH WILL LOSE IN THE PLAY-OFFS

Buh? But they’re six points clear at the top! 

For now, yes. However, Portsmouth have the toughest run-in among their automatic promotion rivals – the toughest of anyone except Blackpool, in fact – and although Bolton’s remaining fixtures aren’t simple, they do have three more of them (plus, Ian Evatt’s teams tend to finish strongly). 

Pompey won’t be scared of having nearly all of the other promotion candidates still to play; after all, they haven’t lost to any of them so far. But they have to go to Bolton and Blackpool, the division’s two best home teams, while at home they’ll host Derby (best away record in League One), Barnsley (one away defeat all season) and Oxford (as many wins on the road as at the Kassam this term).

As for the ‘easy wins’ of facing bottom-half teams at home, that is an obvious plus on paper. On grass, Pompey failed to see off any of Fleetwood, Cheltenham and Charlton at Fratton Park, and needed a 93rd-minute winner to beat Carlisle there. That’s four of the bottom five.

You’ll have plenty of chances to crylaugh emoji at me on socials over the next few weeks, mind, because Pompey’s run-in gets better before it gets worse. Having beaten Carlisle and Cambridge in the past week, they face Reading next, then an out-of-form Oxford side. What’s that? Reading are unbeaten in six and Oxford in four? Interesting…

Oh, and why do I say Portsmouth will lose in the play-offs if they end up there? Because history tells us they will. 

That’s right: it’s a flashback episode.

PREDICTION: BOLTON ARE GOING TO BE KNACKERED…

I mentioned above the possibility that Evatt’s Bolton will sprint over the finish line. They’ll have to reach the final straight in one piece first.

From last weekend through to the international break near the end of March, the Trotters’ playing schedule reads Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday – and then they’ll have a break. A good long break, in fact, because it’s likely that their game after that will probably be postponed due to international call-ups, thereby creating another round of midweek fun in April. Can their squad survive playing a quarter of Bolton’s league campaign in the space of five weeks?

PREDICTION: …AND PORT VALE MIGHT BE, TOO

At the other end of League One, Port Vale’s attempt to avoid relegation will likely involve them having a lot of ground to make up – and that’s just in terms of games, not points. Thanks to Tuesday night’s postponement, Vale have to fit in as-yet-unscheduled fixtures against Peterborough and also Wycombe (postponed in January), on top of their other 15 matches.

Still, how hard can that be? There are plenty of midweeks available. March 5th, for example: a bit late-notice but Wycombe have a window, even if Posh don’t because they’re playing Northampton. And there are three blank midweeks in April, although – ah – one of those will need to be kept free if either Wycombe or Peterborough, or both, reach the EFL Trophy Final and therefore need to rearrange their own league fixture from the day of the final. Plus, the EFL prefer teams not to play in the campaign’s final midweek if possible, so that rules out April 23rd. And actually Vale could have their match against Burton during the international break called off due to call-ups, as it was last time, so that’d be another game to squeeze in.

I’m sure it’ll be fine.

PREDICTION: CHELTENHAM WILL PULL OFF THE GREAT ESCAPE WITH EASE

Our excitement cooled slightly as Darrell Clarke’s immediate impact faded (though what an impact: 18 points in his first 12 games, with a team that had registered one point and famously no goals in their 10 matches prior to Clarke’s arrival). A recent spell of three consecutive defeats, combined with other relegation candidates improving, meant Cheltenham were still eight points adrift this time last week.

But the good news is fourfold. One: Cheltenham no longer have to face the top three in successive meetings (though they did beat table-topping Portsmouth before succumbing to narrow defeats away to Bolton and Derby). Two: their performances mostly weren’t bad even during the poor run of results. Three: they still have two games in hand on nearly all of the clubs around them. And four: now the tables turn.

Cheltenham’s remaining schedule is the least taxing of anyone’s, per Soccerstats, with a division-high difficulty of fixtures behind them, against opponents averaging 1.46ppg, and a relatively pleasant 1.26ppg average ahead. Hell, they could still finish in the top half, turning Steve McQueen’s failed attempt to clear the fence in The Great Escape – oh, er, spoilers, sorry – into a magnificent hovercycle, soaring out of danger. A much better ending, I’m sure you’ll agree.

PREDICTION: BARROW WILL WIN PROMOTION

Editor’s Note: this was mostly written before, then hastily rewritten after, Barrow contrived to lose 2-1 at home to bottom-of-the-league Forest Green Rovers on Tuesday. We promise you won’t even notice.

Many outsiders looking in may be waiting for the surely inevitable Barrow fall, masquerading as they are in this automatic promotion race. They can’t finish higher than Wrexham! I’ve heard of Wrexham!

But Barrow have shown all season (until they lost to Forest Green on Tuesday) that they aren’t going anywhere, and in the final few months of the season that becomes almost literally true. A backlog of home games means Pete Wild & Co. hardly have to leave Holker Street in March, playing away just once in a run of six fixtures.

Barrow have lost only once at home this season (twice, after losing to Forest Green on Tuesday), a record they share with Mansfield (or shared, until they lost to Forest Green on Tuesday), and although they could do with converting more draws into victories, they stand to benefit hugely from their schedule during crunch time – especially as they also have a generally more favourable fixture list than Crewe. It’s just a shame they lost to Forest Green on Tuesday.

PREDICTION: LEAGUE TWO’S FINAL DAY WILL BE A BELTER

Barrow vs Mansfield. Wrexham vs Stockport. If none of those teams have won automatic promotion already by then, that’s going to be very exciting indeed.