NTT20.COM predicts: League Two promotion

Snap verdicts on the run-ins and promotion chances of Bradford, Walsall, Port Vale, Doncaster, Wimbledon, Notts County, Grimsby, Colchester and Crewe.

It is the best of times, it is the worst of times. It is the age of late collapses and the epoch of dramatic uprisings. It will be the season of celebration, it will be the season of heartbreak. We have everything before us, and with pure Dickensian coincidence, the promotion battle’s main characters will face each other in ten direct head-to-heads.

Those nine teams are locked in a chaotic scramble, with a collective 45 games to play – almost a season’s worth of fixtures. It’s a run-in made for drama, and drama we shall get. But first: Ali Maxwell, George Elek, Huw Davies, Sam Parry and Matt Watts shall predict the winners and losers of this promotion race.

Who will make it? Here are our (great) expectations.

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As it stands:

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9th: Crewe Alexandra

Sam Parry

The case for

Unfortunately, the defence offers no evidence. After a 3-2 defeat last night against Cheltenham, plotting Crewe’s route into the top 7 relies on little more than ifs, buts and a wisp of a dream.

The case against

That result leaves Crewe 4 points off the play-offs. Lee Bell’s side are now too heavily reliant on Col U and Grimsby mucking up both a game in hand and a points advantage. Even then, a major bed-wetting guarantees nothing. Crewe have won once in six games, and their next opponents, Colchester United, will be rubbing their hands at the prospect of facing a side that average less than a goal per game on the road, and have led for only 10% of those minutes.

Fixtures

Verdict: Crewe are perhaps the 9th place team for a reason. The 9th-best goal difference. The 9th most wins. The 9th most points. The 9th-best team? Finishing just below the dotted line feels like a fair reflection of a season that, I reckon, ends on Good (or Bad) Friday.

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8th: Colchester United

Huw Davies

The case for

They’re pretty good. Jack Payne is a candidate for League Two player of the season. Goalkeeper Matt Macey has prevented either the most (Opta Analyst) or second-most (FotMob) goals in the division. Owura Edwards and Samson Tovide would offer a huge counter-attacking threat in tight play-off games, while Lyle Taylor brings nous as well as goals and whipped set pieces. Taylor has stepped up at Wembley before, scoring as Wimbledon won promotion from League Two in 2016 and cutely setting up Charlton’s equaliser in 2019 when they beat Sunderland to reach the Championship.

But the main strength is DCD: the Danny Cowley Defence. Shipping 11 goals in a run of 22 matches – nearly half a season, conceding once every other game – is just silly. They win the ball all over the pitch, rather than inviting pressure, and here’s their record defending (non-penalty) set pieces:

If they can get above Grimsby, Col U will go into the play-offs as underdogs with real bite. Nobody in the top six would revel going to Essex, because Colchester’s home record against them is exemplary: W3 D3 L0.

The case against

Well, they did lose 4-0 at Walsall… and 4-1 at Bradford… and 4-2 at Wimbledon. The Walsall and Wimbledon defeats were a long time ago but Col U were simply outclassed both times, and by Bradford in March. How will they fare at Doncaster on Easter Monday? Plus, the xG data is middling (top-10 defence, bottom-half attack) and, most importantly, they have to make up three points on Grimsby.

Fixtures

Verdict: Colchester could surprise many in the play-offs… but they have to get there first. I think they’ll do it. This is not a majority view.

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7th: Grimsby Town

Sam Parry

The case against

It’s the economy, stupid! And Grimsby are toying with the markets. No League Two side in the past decade has sat inside the play-offs with 16 losses from 41 games. In 2024/25, they’re the only top-half team with a negative goal difference (-1) and the most goals conceded (58).

The nature of their defeats is telling. When they lose, they lose bigger: ten defeats by two goals or more, compared to just six by a single goal. When they win, it's usually smaller: 14 of their 20 wins have come by a single goal, and only six by more than one. Alarm bells or vib(e)rations?

The case for

Bradford alone have more wins than Grimsby’s 20. Those victories haven’t come in streaks – just steady, consistent returns. Why would that change? The chasers – Colchester and Crewe (9th) – each have five fewer wins to their names, and I don’t see much evidence for why those trajectories would change now (at least not for Crewe).

Two tough fixtures could decide it: Port Vale at home on Easter Monday, then Wimbledon away on the final day. But Grimsby have form against the top seven, having beaten every side in there except Notts County (P2 L2).

Fixtures

Verdict: Dave Artell’s side should clear the dotted line, and last season’s Crawleyfication of the play-offs gives hope that chaos can trump control. Of the top seven, only Walsall games (2.88) see more goals than Grimsby’s (2.80). Play-off ties don’t demand caution, and Grimsby, if they get there, won’t show any. Prediction? A brave defeat in the play-off semis.

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6th: Notts County