Possession to Power – a tactical shift in the the Championship?

Forget ideology. Across tactics and recruitment, Championship clubs are prioritising pragmatism, power and unpredictability

Lou McKenzie

The possession regression

In recent seasons, there’s been a thought process that more possession means more points, which in turn means eventual promotion.

When Birmingham City appointed Wayne Rooney as their manager in November 2023, the club explained that same thought process. In a presentation during their open forum to fans, they showcased that teams averaging over 54% possession are more likely to be promoted. That is true, but what it doesn’t show you is that the teams that dominate the ball within the top six also have the league’s best players.

How those teams got to the point of having the league’s best players is a separate conversation. However, I think there’s been a change of approach over the past 18 months or so, especially at the top teams in the Championship.

In chasing promotion, these sides have tended to opt for managers who have a heavy possession approach: Vincent Kompany at Burnley, Russell Martin at Southampton, Enzo Maresca at Leicester, Daniel Farke at Leeds, Michael Carrick at Middlesbrough and Johannes Hoff Thorup at Norwich.

Now look at this season’s appointments: Will Still at Southampton, Rob Edwards at Middlesbrough, Rubén Sellés at Sheffield United, Liam Manning at Norwich and, yes, Paulo Pezzolano at Watford, seeing as Watford themselves called him “a promotion specialist” in their unveiling. Even Swansea went away from their ‘ideology’ and appointed Alan Sheehan. On the face of it, there seems to be one standalone team that will try to dominate possession in every game, which is Birmingham City — and that’s something they set out to do from the beginning of their takeover.

But why are teams doing this?