Premier League clubs! Follow Klopp and shop in the Championship
Talking Tactics: "Why – like me – your favourite team should love and scout in the Football League, and more specifically the Championship."
We are delighted to welcome one of our favourite Twitter accounts, Talking Tactics, onto NTT20.COM. TT has worked in football for around 20 years, but for the last few he’s also provided passionate, insightful tactical content for everyone to follow online. The best part? The mysterious, anonymous TT is a huge fan of the lower leagues, as you’ll find out.
Today, we’re on a diving trip into an EFL talent pool, shining a light on the often-overlooked or under-appreciated brilliance that lies beneath the Premier League. We don’t want all our favourite talent to be sold off, but TT makes some astute observations…
Talking Tactics
I bloody love the Championship.
From an entertainment point of view — the ups and downs, highs and lows, promotions and relegations — it is inarguably up there with the best leagues in the world. And in this article, I want to (a) convince anyone who needs convincing (looking at you top-flight fans) of the Championship’s quality, and (b) convince any scout who needs convincing that they should turn to the second tier and below.
If you read that and remain sceptical, maybe you’ll listen to Jürgen Klopp:
I love the Championship, I watched Leeds vs Leicester last week…Wow. The football intensity in the Championship is absolutely insane. I saw West Brom recently, a real football-playing idea. Ipswich as well. The league is incredibly difficult.
All of that intensity — pure heavy metal football — is reflected in the physical data (via SkillCorner), which suggests that the closest league to the Premier League, taking into account the physical demands of both speed and intensity, is the Championship.
It should therefore come as no surprise that Jürgen Klopp has not only recruited from the Championship — see Harvey Elliott, and technically Andrew Robertson and Gini Wijnaldum (more on that later) — but also used the Football League to develop top talents such as Conor Bradley (Bolton Wanderers) and Jarell Quansah (Bristol Rovers).
In fact, Liverpool’s incoming Director of Football, Richard Hughes, has enhanced his reputation by successfully recruiting from the Championship: think Alex Scott, Antoine Semenyo, Marcus Tavernier and Lloyd Kelly amongst others.
The other Director of Football linked with a big club move this summer, Dougie Freedman, has also excelled in recruiting under-valued players from the Championship. You can look throughout Crystal Palace’s squad and see players developed (Dean Henderson, Sam Johnstone and Marc Guehi) or produced (Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze, Will Hughes and Adam Wharton) via the Football League.
Maybe these smart recruiters are onto something.
It stands to reason that if the Premier League is the best in the worldTM then clubs ranked 21st to 44th in England should also be fairly strong. Again, don’t take my word for it. Let’s look at some Elo ratings (a fancy measure of team quality). And let’s use Viktor Gyökeres as an example.
Case Study: Viktor Gyökeres
Last season, Gyökeres was scoring goals against teams with an Elo European ranking of 104 (Luton Town), 127 (WBA) and 163 (Middlesbrough). All whilst playing for a club in Coventry City with a current European ranking of 123. Viktor Gyökeres has now moved to Sporting Lisbon and they have an Elo ranking of 24. At Sporting, he is scoring goals against teams ranked 365 (Vizela), 312 (Farense) and 264 (Gil Vicente).
Has Gyökeres improved? Probably. Has the opposition got worse? Provably. Can both things co-exist as separately illuminating facts? Definitely. I say all this to draw a simple conclusion: if Gyökeres was scoring goals in the Championship — against a good standard of opposition — there is a fairly decent chance that he would also do the same in the Premier League. The evidence suggests as much.
Whilst there are always cases, and plenty of them, which don’t conform to the same pattern, it is fair to say that the Championship is more than playing its part in top-flight goalscoring today. A quick look at the top-scorers table shows:
2nd: Ollie Watkins (a player who scored 25 goals in his last season in the Championship) and Dominic Solanke (a player who scored 15 and 29 goals in his last two Championship seasons)
6th: Jarrod Bowen with 15 goals. A very similar return to his last half-season in the Championship.
Who is the joint top scorer in La Liga? Championship-produced Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid). Who did I see scoring for top of the table – unbeaten – Bayer Leverkusen recently (vs Wolfsburg)? That’s right, Championship-developed Nathan Tella. And the top scorer in the Portuguese top flight? Our friend Viktor Gyökeres (Sporting Lisbon).
Ladder climbers
If you look across Premier League teams, good Championship performances are generally a good predictor for good Premier League performances.
I have already highlighted Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, but there are key Premier League players, developed in the Football League, who can be found at nearly all clubs:
Some examples of key players throughout the years are:
Aston Villa – Martinez, Mings, Konsa, Cash, Watkins (could argue others…)
West Ham Utd – Cresswell, Antonio, Bowen, Phillips (I know..)
Newcastle Utd – Trippier, Burn, Lascelles, Wilson
Brighton – Dunk, Webster, March, Joao Pedro
Brentford – Pinnock, Toney
And that is without including the likes of Kyle Walker, John Stones, Jack Grealish, James Maddison, Ben White, Joe Gomez, Harry Maguire and plenty more.
Clearly, there is lots of talent in the Championship, so how best to go about finding it?
Scout teams towards the bottom end of the Premier League
But I thought you said “scout the Championship”? I did and I do. But hear me out.
These players may not technically be Championship players but many have played there. And crucially, relegation is often reflected in their price, availability and affordability. I previously mentioned Liverpool, and Andrew Robertson and Gini Wijnaldum. But there are numerous examples of this; James Maddison being the most recent.
Recruitment is about reducing the risk of an investment. If these players have already shown they can handle the Premier League (or have a good sample of data – like a Joao Pedro) then this certainly makes it easier when convincing the powers that be.
This season, for example, teams will be heavily scouting the likes of Cameron Archer/Gustavo Hamer/James McAtee (Sheffield United); Dara O’Shea, Zeki Amdouni, Luca Koleosho (Burnley); Teden Mengi, Ross Barkley and Alfie Doughty (Luton Town).
And speaking of relegation, it is obviously a big blow (especially financially) for any club. At the same time, it can allow clubs to develop their own talent, which can then have big benefits later on down the line (say: Jack Grealish at Aston Villa or Archie Gray at Leeds United).
Scout players on loan in the Football League
Previously I mentioned Liverpool using the Football League to help refine the skills of Conor Bradley and Jarell Quansah. However, in the days of FFP and ‘Pure Profit’, loans are becoming less about player development and more about increasing the value of a saleable asset.
Covering these players is extremely beneficial. And showing an early interest can reap rewards later down the line. Marc Guehi (on loan at Swansea City) for around £20m was a nice example of this but there are plenty of others. The Middlesbrough team including Ryan Giles, Aaron Ramsey and Cameron Archer was soon picked off and sold to various Premier League clubs.
Scout players recently sold by Premier League clubs
There’s another to consider when it comes to FFP and Pure Profit: BARGAINS.
Aston Villa, for example, in need of money during the recent summer transfer window, may regret selling Jaden Philogene-Bidace for just £5m. Tottenham basically gave Jack Clarke away. Craig Dawson to West Ham United.
There are bargains to be had. And if these players showed signs that they were good enough to be in and around Premier League squads then – in some cases – it is just a matter of time before they rise back up to the top.
And this works both ways. Championship clubs should be heavily scouting PL2 matches where there are plenty of bargains to be found. Even back in the day, Leicester City had good success when recruiting players like Danny Drinkwater, Matty James, and Ritchie De Laet (Manchester United) for modest fees (plus Michael Keane on loan).
The Home-Grown status is also a big attraction for European clubs, who believe they can purchase under-valued talent – from the Championship – expose them to a higher quality of league – and sell them back to England for a large profit. Serie A clubs were linked to Jonathan Rowe (Norwich City), Morgan Whittaker (Plymouth Argyle) and Jordan James (Birmingham City) in January. Villarreal will be hoping to cash in on Ben Brereton-Diaz too.
Scout Football League players when playing against Premier League opposition (Cup)
What better way than the cup to scout how these Football League players cope – technically and physically – against better-quality opposition?
I’ll hand you over to Unai Emery on Morgan Rogers:
When we analysed Middlesbrough, I appreciated a lot his qualities and thought how he can progress in two, three, four years…
Rogers then showed he could compete physically when playing against Villa and he was purchased during the January transfer window
If clubs had doubts about Archie Gray’s temperament, ability or physicality, I think his performance against Chelsea would’ve removed them.
Scout players who make their Football League debut and those playing regularly under the age of 23
This is common practice amongst most clubs and ensures all appropriate players are scouted. Recruiting them is another matter…
Over the last couple of seasons the Championship has handed debuts to the likes of the Bellingham brothers, Ashley Phillips and Archie Gray.
Whilst the Championship has always displayed drama, what has improved in recent years is the quality of coaching and recruitment (at some clubs…).
Clubs like Luton Town, Coventry City and Sunderland have shown that there are undervalued players outside of the UK who want to play and develop in England, with the dream of one day playing in the Premier League.
Premier League clubs will no doubt look at recruits from these clubs in detail. And whilst Top 5 league clubs are busy scouting these Championship (Football League) players, they would be well advised to also look towards the technical area. In Kieran McKenna/Liam Rosenior/Carlos Corberan (plus others) the league has some good, young coaches.
Hopefully, by now I have convinced you that there are young, robust (happy to play Saturday morning/afternoon, Sunday, Monday night, Tuesday night, Wednesday night or Friday night), technically gifted players performing to a high level in the Championship (and Football League).
If you have a spare day (pretty much any day should work) it would be good if you went along and watched them too. You might just discover the next big thing.
Oh, and subscribing to Not The Top 20 Podcast and NTT20.COM will help, too…