The Pinsticker's Guide to the Championship Promotion Run-in
All of the details you need to know about the runners and riders for the Championship's top six places
When does the run-in begin? With 10 games to go? With 8? With 6?
There is almost one-third of the season left to play in the Championship. But even if the ‘run-in’ is still doing its stretches and the ‘business end’ is yet bicep curl its briefcase, the final act is coming into focus.
The Pinsticker’s Guide to the Championship Promotion Run-in is here to flag the form, fixtures and frailties of 16 runners and riders. Keeping in mind the classic Championship benchmarks of 70 points for the play-offs and 90 points for automatic promotion, the question shifts from where teams are to what they need to do.
Using points per game, xG performance, remaining fixtures and opponent strength, we’ve mapped out the permutations required for each team to hit those numbers.
Heck, with all that data to hand, we’ve also proffered our own points projection – and a final league table.
How to read this:
FORM 📈 — Where the team is right now
Season PPG (points per game), as well as separate home and away PPG, shows the team’s overall pace; Last 10 PPG shows current momentum; and the xG trend (‘Season xG Share → 10-game’) hints at whether performances are improving or dipping.
RUN-IN 🗓️ — How tough the finish looks
Games remaining, home vs away split, and the average PPG of remaining opponents (home or away, depending on where the fixture will take place) show whether the schedule is kind or brutal compared with the rest of the league.
TARGETS 🎯 — The race from here
The key numbers are the PPG needed from now to hit the traditional Championship benchmarks: 70 points for play-offs, and 90 points for automatic promotion.
PROJECTION 🎯 — The forecast explained
This isn’t just current PPG carried forward – it’s a weighted forecast blending season form, recent form, home vs away form, underlying xG performance and fixture difficulty, combined to estimate the club’s likeliest final points total if current trends continue. N.B. It’s a bit of fun, not an exhaustive prediction.
In beating Middlesbrough to reclaim top spot, Coventry have put their toughest fixture of the season behind them. The going isn’t completely soft, though: 8 of their remaining 14 matches come against top-half sides, and 5 of those are away from home.
Taking the title out of the equation, in our focus purely on a top-two place, what Coventry need to do is fend off the would-be party-spoilers. It is both in their hands and out of their hands: they lead Ipswich and Millwall but will face neither of them again this season.
FORM 📈
Season PPG: 1.94
Home PPG: 2.44
Away PPG: 1.44
Last 10 PPG: 1.40
Season xG Share → 10-game: 64% → 60%
RUN-IN 🗓️
Games remaining: 14 (7H / 7A)
Opponent strength: 1.37 avg PPG
Fixtures: easier than 50% of the league
Targets: 0.57 PPG to reach 70 | 2.00 PPG to reach 90
PROJECTION 🎯
2nd - 90.4 points (2.03 PPG required)
🚩 Fixture Flag: After this Saturday’s game away at West Bromwich Albion, Coventry’s next five look relatively tough – a trip to Sheffield United just four days after The Hawthorns, and a visit to Bristol City sandwiched between home ties against Stoke, Preston and Southampton.
