The Six Fix - EFL Play-Off Preview

Twelve teams, six semi-finals, three finals and one looming arch.

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The wheel. Caxton’s printing press. Electricity. Sliced bread. Television. The World Wide Web. Those things that slice an apple into perfect segments while removing the core. All incredible inventions in their own way. All lacking the drama, prizes, and intensity of the greatest invention: the EFL Play-Offs.

For 70 minutes of excitement, opinion & analysis without a single use of the word ‘momentum’, listen to our Play-Off Preview, one of our favourite pods of the year:

A six-fixture double-header between twelve teams, then six teams, until three teams secure promotion. Unrivalled excitement, unravelling dreams. The stakes are… what? It’s not simply about succeeding. The difference between winning the play-offs and falling short can be the difference between keeping and losing your best players, attracting and repelling new talents, building and failing to build a financial safety blanket.

And on top of that, the play-offs a brutal—a single shot, a huge opportunity and a monumental challenge. Who blinks first? It’s match play. It’s tournament football. It starts today…

Championship

Winning the Championship play-off final comes with promotion and top-flight riches and wages and debt and potentially parachute payments—it’s a crazy fixture, fundamentally altering the standing of a football club. Middlesbrough and Sunderland are more familiar with the top-flight prize than the others. For Coventry, you need to go back two decades. For Luton, you have to go back thirty years. For all, the Premier League beckons. Only one winner though.

In sixth-placed Sunderland, we have a side in form, full of match-winners - Diallo, Roberts, Clarke. At the same time, Sunderland are plagued by injury, their defence depleted and patched up. It’s an incredible feat to get to this point. It will be something even more special than that if they can overcome Luton.

And Luton look strong. Unbeaten in 14. Well-rested. Finishing in third. Defeated only twice in 2023. Under Edwards, they are a better side than the one who lost in the play-offs at the same stage last year. Not just sturdy but colossal at the back, difficult to penetrate. Their midfield, full of energy, fuelled by a diet of second balls. They have a 20-goal striker up front. They can go long. They can progress the ball through the wing-backs. They’re a threat from set pieces.

In the other semi-final, there is the rapacious attacking force in Boro versus the Coventry counter. Tactically, this one is fascinating. Cat and mouse. Middlesborough have a question mark hanging over them when it comes to fitness: Jonny Howson, Dael Fry, Aaron Ramsey and Marcus Forss all concerns. They have a question hanging over them when it comes to form: just 12 points taken from their last 10 games, that’s way off the heights they initially set under Carrick. Is that a natural deceleration after missing out on the top two, or a more serious decline? It’s impossible to say. But there’s no reason to suspect the blueprint of earlier successes won’t reap rewards in the play-offs.

The only issue is that their opponents, Coventry, will be licking their lips at the space Boro give up to their opponents. So much space! And that’s a vulnerability that can be unlocked, especially by teams on the counter attack. Cov also have a key man missing in Callum O’Hare, but that’s an injury they’ve coped with for some time now. Not only coped but thrived, only losing one in ten, with Hamer, Gyokeres at the heart of what feels like one of the most upwardly mobile teams across all leagues.

Fixtures

• Saturday 13 May   

  • 17:30  Sunderland v Luton

• Sunday 14 May

  • 12:00  Coventry v Middlesbrough

• Tuesday 16 May   

  • 20:00  Luton v Sunderland

• Wednesday 17 May  

  • 20:00  Middlesbrough v Coventry

• Saturday 27 May

  • 16:45 Championship Play-Off Final

Form

• Luton - WWDWDD | Unbeaten in 14 games, 14 conceded in last 21 games

• Middlesbrough - DWWLLD | 2nd highest scorers in the division

• Coventry - DWDWWD | Unbeaten in 7 games, 2nd most clean sheets in league

• Sunderland - WWDWDW | Unbeaten in 9 games, 2nd highest away scorers

Key battles

Sunderland v Luton:

Amad Diallo & Patrick Roberts v Amari’i Bell & Alfie Doughty.

Sunderland’s dynamic duo love to double up out on the right wing, combining skilfully to create shooting opportunities or cutbacks. Bell is a committed defender, but Doughty can be targeted. Going the other way, Doughty is a menace. Speedy, direct and with good delivery. Will Roberts and/or Diallo provide the protection needed? This is a key battleground.

Sunderland’s double right-wingers - Diallo (#16) and Roberts (#10) - From Sofascore

Coventry v Middlesbrough:

Viktor Gyökeres v Paddy McNair and Darragh Lenihan

As soon as Coventry City win the ball back in their own half, hold your breath. These will be the most significant moments of the match. They will look to play forward quickly, towards their talisman up top. Naturally, Gyökeres drifts left and prefers a ball into the left channel, targeting McNair. But Boro’s use of full-backs might necessitate a tweak, with right-back Tommy Smith generally staying back to guard against the counter attack. The space is more likely to be found outside of Darragh Lenihan, vacated by the attacking left-back Ryan Giles. If the Big Swede latches onto the ball and faces up one of the centre-backs, it’s a huge test of their 1v1 ability. The results of those battles will likely decide who gets to Wembley.

Predictions

Ali Maxwell

• Luton beat Sunderland - - - Coventry beat Middlesbrough

• Luton beat Coventry and win promotion

George Elek

• Luton beat Sunderland - - - Middlesbrough beat Coventry

• Luton beat Middlesbrough in the final

League One

Let’s kick-off with 4th vs 5th. Barnsley and Bolton have been locked into the play-off places for what seems like an age. Barnsley have an attacking edge - they’ve scored 18 more goals than Bolton this season - and boast attacking options up top (Norwood, Cole, Watters, Tedic), in midfield (Kane and Phillips) and even from wide (Cadden). They also feel a little bit more inconsistent than their opponents; the highs (and goals) higher, but suffering from a few more lows.

Bolton have consistency on their side. Their PPG in their last 10 (1.8) is not all that far away from the PPG overall (1.77). Ian Evatt’s side will be buoyed by the recent memory of their 4-0 win against Plymouth Argyle at Wembley in the Papa John’s Trophy Final. Their defence is strong, only conceding 36 goals (only 1 more than Ipswich) all season. In no small part is that down to their keeper James Trafford, probably the best in the league. There’s an attack vs defence vibe to this one, chaos vs control, Barnsley vs Bolton and it’s liiiiive.

For the other two, it’s a little different. Posh are the late entrants. Sheffield Wednesday accumulated enough points over the season to secure automatic promotion in almost every other League One season. The weight of expectation is a burden Sheffield Wednesday seemed to struggle with over the final quarter of the season. But sometimes that stuff can be massively overplayed and quickly quashed. It’s a burden they’ll have to carry again into the play-offs: they are the favourites here and they’ll be hoping the return of Josh Windass can return them to the Championship. His presence is huge.

Peterborough have been somewhat suspect at the back all season, but are a team on the rise under Darren Ferguson and, unsurprisingly, full of goals. Clarke-Harris, Mason-Clark, Jack Taylor all in and amongst them. And with that kind of firepower, there’s a nagging sense that this is a shot-to-nothing for Posh. An unanticipated opportunity to do the unexpected, the impossible? We’ll see.

Fixtures

• Friday 12 May       

  • 20:00  Peterborough v Sheffield Wednesday

• Saturday 13 May  

  • 15:00  Bolton v Barnsley

• Thursday 18 May 

  • 20:00  Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough

• Friday19 May   

  • 20:00  Barnsley v Bolton

• Monday 29 May

  • 15:00 League One Play-Off Final

Form

• Sheffield Wednesday - WLWWWW | Better record home & away vs other four

• Barnsley - WDWLDL | Scoring over two goals per game in 2023

• Bolton - WDWLWW | Best defensive record of the four

• Peterborough - WLWLDW | Got a Ferguson in the dugout & great vibes up top

Key battles

Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough:

Marvin Johnson & Barry Bannan v Peterborough’s Defence

Sheffield Wednesday have the best technical and creative player in the league: Barry Bannan. The Scot loves to drift away from the centre of the pitch, combine with wide players and work the ball into a position to cross from deep, or thread a through ball through to the wing-back, Marvin ‘Neymarv’ Johnson. In the middle, they have the striker with the highest aerial win % in the division: Michael Smith.

Barry Bannan - season heatmap - by Sofascore:

All the while, Peterborough are a little uncertain at right-back. Joe Ward, who has started the last three, isn’t the sturdiest defensively. And in the middle, they have a pair of CBs that read the game well, and pass the ball well, but don’t dominate aerially. They’ll have to have the games of their lives to quash this particular threat.

Barnsley v Bolton:

Dion Charles v Barnsley’s Battalion

Here are some ‘non-penalty goals per 90’ numbers from the players likely to play in attacking roles, in descending order:

• Max Watters (Barnsley): 0.50 (reduced minutes)

• Slobodan Tedic (Barnsley): 0.44 (reduced minutes)

• James Norwood (Barnsley): 0.39

• Devante Cole (Barnsley): 0.39

• Adam Phillips (Barnsley): 0.33

• Dion Charles (Bolton): 0.28

• Victor Adeboyejo (Bolton): 0.28

A good attacking team spreads the goals around, and Bolton have done that. But you have to feel that Barnsley come into this with significantly greater goal threats. Dion Charles has only scored one goal since the start of March. He, or one of Adeboyejo, Nlundulu, Kachunga or Dempsey, are going to have to find some sharpness.

Predictions

George Elek

• Sheff Wed beat Posh - - - Barnsley beat Bolton

• Sheffield Wednesday beat Barnsley in the final

Ali Maxwell

• Wednesday beat Peterborough - - - Barnsley beat Bolton

• Sheffield Wednesday beat Barnsley and win promotion

League Two

Salford v Stockport feels tactically intriguing. Clearly, the prospect of a free-scoring, free-conceding Salford whets the appetite. They have quality in attack. They tend towards possession-heavy football. They have an abundance of technical quality and 1v1 dribbling specialists. They have also been a part of some astonishingly goal-laden games, which reflects the reality they are far from dependable at the back.

But Stockport are quality, perhaps the most obvious favourite among all the play-off contenders in all leagues. They are missing striker Kyle Wootton; that will be a worry. But their ability to shut out opponents is ridiculous at times. They’ve only conceded 6 goals in their last 13 league games. It’s one of the few ties that myself and George disagree on.

I am somewhat regretting what were harsh words about Carlisle United on the Preview Podcast. It is a fact that they are not heading into this in the manner of a strong, confident play-off contender. It is true that their strikers have struggled for goals and that they’re missing an important centre-back for the Semi-Finals. And it is true that their August-January selves feel a way off:

• Carlisle, pre-February: 1.82ppg (28 games)

• Carlisle, February-May: 1.39ppg (18 games)

But… they have one of the league’s best all-round players in Owen Moxon. They have Callum Guy alongside him. Carlisle can cut away their insipid form and find the levels that made them, at one point, look like title contenders.

If it is to be a tight game, decided by execution in both boxes, it’s hard not to lean towards Bradford City. They have the top goalscorer in the league, Andy Cook, and one of the best shot-stoppers, Harry Lewis. But it would also be fair to say that all season it has felt like Bradford have struggled to hit ‘top gear’. Maybe it exists, and they’ll time it perfectly. They could stand and deliver at Valley Parade, where they’ve only won 9 of 23 in the league this season. Cook could get a bit of goalscoring help from his attacking colleague.

There could be goals… but if not, there’ll be tension. It’s exciting - here’s how it all unravels:

Fixtures

• Saturday 13 May    

  • 19:45  Salford v Stockport

• Sunday 14 May      

  • 19:00  Bradford v Carlisle

• Saturday 20 May    

  • 12:30  Stockport v Salford

  • 15:00  Carlisle v Bradford

• Sunday 28 May

  • 13:30 League Two Play-Off Final

Form

• Stockport - WDDWWD | Unbeaten in 13 games

• Carlisle - DDDWLD | 20 clean sheets in the league

• Bradford - WLDWLD | Have best striker and goalkeeper

• Salford - WLWWWL | Joint-top scorers in the division

Key battles

Carlisle v Bradford

The Middle Of The Park

I expect Carlisle to line up in midfield with Callum Guy, Owen Moxon and Alfie McCalmont.

I expect Bradford to match that up with Richie Smallwood, Alex Gillead and Adam Clayton.

These are interesting trios. All season, Moxon and Guy have offered everything you want from a midfield pair: industry, tough tackling, quality on the ball, threat from range. McCalmont is more of a wildcard, an attack minded #8 with an eye for the spectacular.

Bradford’s midfield has its terrier in Alex Gillead. Dogged, determined, Gillead will charge around pressing and tackling. Smallwood and Clayton are experienced. 800+ league games between them, mostly at a higher level than this. That means they are unlikely to be overwhelmed by the occasion. It means they know how to handle themselves. But they are not the most mobile or athletic. 

I can make the argument for Carlisle’s midfield having the legs, the energy, the quality. But equally, I can see Bradford’s bunch to managing the occasion better. I cannot call this part of the pitch, but it’s going to be crucial.

Stockport v Salford

The Wide Areas

Salford have dribble wizards Louie Barry and Luke Bolton on either flank. Bolton will fancy himself to have the athleticism to carry it past Hussey repeatedly, but Hussey is wily and experienced. Barry is up against one of the best 1v1 defenders in the league in Kyle Knoyle - that’s a huge battle. But Barry plays narrower than Bolton because he has overlapping back-up in the form of left-back Ibo Touray, who is excellent at getting up and down.

Equally, Stockport’s most regular angle of attack is down the sides, with wing-backs delivering crosses into the box. Hussey’s delivery is dependable, Knoyle’s is up and down. With two strikers and two attacking #8s crashing the box, too, Stockport can be a big threat from these situations if Salford don’t defend their box well

Stockport County characteristics - by WhoScored.

Predictions

George Elek:

• Stockport beat Salford - - - Bradford beat Carlisle

• Stockport beat Bradford in final

Ali Maxwell:

• Salford beat Stockport - - - Bradford City beat Carlisle

• Salford beat Bradford and win promotion

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It’s going to be epic.

It’s going to be heartbreaking.

Enjoy it, and as always… go well!