đ The Six Fix - Episode #4
Ali & George pick six of the best and predict the scorelines + mid-week permutations + Orient Express arrives in L1
Hello - itâs Friday. If you havenât listened to or read The Six Fix* before, then let us explain. This is a weekly hit, a dose, a fix. We (Ali & George) pick our two favourite fixtures from each EFL league based on whatever parameters we see fit and justify them to you and each other via the medium of spoken and written word.
*Yes, we tweaked the name again
Press play, listen in, read along đ
Championship picks + mid-week permutations: 00:00 / -33:43.
League One Friday picks+ mid-week permutations: 13:42 / -23:45
League Two Friday picks+ mid-week permutations: 24:07 / -13:20
Plus: read our đ Leyton Orient promotion special
Championship
Big game pick -Â West Brom (7th) vs Sunderland (9th)
Ali Maxwell
West Brom looked more than a bit lifeless when they lost 3-1 to Rotherham three games ago. There was nothing fortuitous about that either; Millers battered them. And yet, the battle for 5th and 6th place in the Championship is wide open. Fought over by so many teams that a couple of positive results and⌠BANG, youâre in with a chance.
So after two wins on the bounce, the past seven days have been incredible for West Brom. Granted, the pair of wins came against Blackpool (one of the worst sides in the division) and Stoke (whose good form has not fallen but plummeted off a cliff).
They face a sterner test from Sunderland. A side who are unbeaten in 6. Who pick up more points away from home than at the Stadium of Light: 9 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses. Who themselves are only 2 points away from 6th and 3 points away from 5th. Thereâs lots of skin in this game.
And perhaps more skin than fit and match-ready footballers. Both sides are ailing with injuries. For WBA, Dikeâs out; heâll be missed. Heâs not the only one. Sunderland obviously have Stewart out long-term and are also coping with a lot of injuries across the whole team.
Honestly, it feels like West Brom are grinding rather than bursting into life. And I think Sunderland have plenty of threat and perhaps a little less pressure. No result a surprise, butâŚ
Prediction: 1-1
Big game pick - Coventry (8th) vs Reading (22nd)
George Elek
With the stonking great caveat that I think Aliâs pick is the bigger fixture⌠this is the next best.
On Wednesday, Coventryâs 95th-minute GOALKEEPER GOAL equaliser against sixth-placed Blackburn did a lot of good work for their play-off push. Theyâre in touching distance of the top six. Just a point behind Rovers (6th), who have a game in hand, but also a negative goal difference - and how might that play out? Itâs tight! Coventry have to chalk this up as a must-win due to that big, bunched-up brigade of Championship play-off contenders.
As for Reading. Thereâs a coronation around the corner, and you might think the Royals would be the life and soul rather than the party pooper. But in their last two, they scuppered Burnleyâs chances of beating the record points total in the Championship and then killed off any lingering Luton hopes of catching the Blades.
In that 1-1 with Luton, Andy Carroll had a huge impact. He missed an easy chance. Scored a free header. Then scored another free header. Except it wasnât. No heads, shoulders, knees or toes were used in the making of this goal â if they had, it would have stood. It didnât because Carroll punched it in, getting sent off for a second yellow. Do cheats prosper? Occasionally, but not this time.
The upshot is that Carroll will be missing this fixture. And that could be fairly damaging after Noel Huntâs reasonable start as Reading manager. Reading are a single point from safety and have a big opportunity to at least draw level with those above them. A win would put the first squiggle of royal icing on Huntâs emerging footballing cake, but I donât think that will happen. I think Coventry win to nil.
Prediction 2-0
League One
Big game pick - Plymouth (1st) vs Cambridge (21st)
George Elek
I definitely had my concerns about Argyle. There were some ropey performances delivering positive results. But the record shows theyâve won five out of six, with two huge performances in their last two games: beating Exeter in the Devon Derby and coming from behind against Shrewsbury to win in the 96th minute. Psychologically, thatâs got to feel good.
They sit at the top of the table, a single point in front of Ipswich and two in front of Sheffield Wednesday. Every fan of each of the top three clubs is going to expect that if their team slips up, the other two wonât. So for Plymouth, with that game in hand, a win here could mean securing one sneaking fingernail in the Championship.
Cambridge will be hoping to clip it. As big as this game is for the top of the table, itâs also massive at the bottom. If Cambridge were to lose, the two sides directly below them (Morecambe and Accrington) could go above them. The same if they draw.
We might have stuck a DNR notice on Cambridgeâs bed a few weeks ago, but 10 points in 6 games have zapped them back to life. They have been fibrillated into a decent recovery position thanks to Sam Smithâs excellent form - 5 in 5. They have a chance, Lincoln beat Argyle at home a few weeks ago, and theyâll take confidence from that. But with the stakes as they are and the mismatch in quality, Iâll go with a tight Plymouth win.
Prediction: 1-0
Big game pick -Â Peterborough (5th) vs Ipswich (2nd)
Ali Maxwell
One of these teams will be gutted at full time!
In fact, both could be gutted. One team is 1 of 3 fighting for autos. The other is 1 of 3 fighting for the remaining two play-off places. Dropped points for Ipswich, and Wednesday could capitalise, Plymouth could extend their lead at the top. And donât forget, Ipswich face Barnsley next.
If Peterborough lose, then those around them could overtake them: Bolton face Shrewsbury, Derby face Burton. That could leave Posh under massive pressure in their remaining two fixtures.
If itâs a draw, the point isnât a bad one in a vacuum, but again, if eitherâs rivals win, itâs still messy. Ipswich simply cannot be as good away as they are at home (theyâre just too good at home). But all in all, Iâm finding it harder to trust Posh than I am Ipswich. That trustiness is telling.
Prediction: 1-3
League Two
Big game pick - Hartlepool (23rd) vs Crawley (22nd)
George Elek
The. Biggest. Game.
Couple of big âmustsâ hanging around here. Must win. Must not lose. In fact, we must have used that word a few times already. But nowhere across the slate this weekend, and perhaps nowhere across the season as a whole, does that word apply more than in this game.
At stake is relegation. Dropping out of the Football League into a fifth tier replete with good sides, a couple of whom would likely be favourites for the League Two title and plenty of teams whoâd be confident about surviving. SoâŚitâs a huge MUST WIN for Hartlepool and a slightly less substantial must not lose for Crawley.
Both sides have taken 10 points from their last 8 games. Itâs rare for teams at the bottom to come into the final few games in decent nick, but these two do. Hartlepool have lost two on the spin, but Iâm not too concerned; theyâve been in good form, especially at home, where theyâre unbeaten since Feb.
Crawley have won and drawn in their past two games. Although, in their last game against Colchester, they were second-best after a brief period of domination. If Hartlepool were to win by a single goal, they would go above Crawley on goal difference. If Crawley win, youâd think that was the end of Hartlepool.
Prediction: 1-1
Big game pick -Â Mansfield (8th) vs Stevenage (3rd)
Ali Maxwell
Two good weeks for two good sides. A mid-week win for Stevenage increased the gap to 4th to four points. Whilst Mansfieldâs 2-1 win over Newport put them level on points with 7th placed Salford with a game in hand. So, this fixture has huge relevance for promotion and play-off hopes.
Mansfield are weird, they just are. So many high-scoring wins, so many high-scoring losses and then plenty of 0-0 draws at home too. Weird. Itâs hard to tell which Mansfield turns up. Part of that now is down to injury. Loads of them.
Add to that a dollop of narrative. Good âevans, thereâs some spice. Steve Evans left Mansfield a few years back when they were in second, to allegedly move to work in China⌠then he was appointed Peterborough United Manager. That did not go down well at Field Mill. It will be the sort of frosty reception I imagine Evans will enjoy.
His Stevenage side have not exactly been convincing over the past couple of months. They are average away from home, but at least they are consistently average. And I repeat: Mansfield are weird⌠and injury-ravaged.
And I think thereâs a level of performance you can rely on with Stevenage, so⌠Stevenage to shithouse it.
Prediction: 0-1
This is all a far cry from when Stevenage beat Leyton Orient (3-0) in January, and the bookies made Steve Evans' side favourites for the title. Those prospects are long gone becauseâŚ
âŚLeyton Orient have been promoted from League Two
Congratulations to everyone connected to the club!
In 2014, Orient lost the League One Play-Off Final on penalties. Three years later, they were relegated into non-league, suffering at the hands of a truly destructive owner. Due to the incredible work of Justin Edinburgh, and the steady hand of owner Nigel Travis, the Oâs made it back to the EFL. Not long after, their talismanic manager Edinburgh died suddenly. Now, after three seasons finishing between 11th and 17th, they are League One once more. In nine years, theyâve experienced two promotions, two relegations.
Their transformative manager, Richie Wellens, has now won promotion from League Two twice in four seasons. Both times, he took over a team in the bottom half of the table, underperforming expectations. Both times, he took a look at the squad he inherited, made a few smart additions without breaking the bank, and moulded a title-winning side within the span of one summer.
Whatâs interesting to me is that his Swindon side and Leyton Orient side are different beasts. His Swindon team were a little slicker in the final third, a really fluid attacking unit. A little more gung ho in their approach with and without the ball, they didnât have the defensive sturdiness of this Orient side, who have kept a clean sheet in more than half their games, an astonishing record.
The comparison is reflected in the stats - Swindon 19/20 scored 0.39 goals per game more than Leyton Orient 22/23, but also conceded 0.39 goals per game more. Neat!
This Orient side have had a grit to them that has been inherent to the team, rather than specific to a certain group of players: if you consider the goalkeeper and back four to be a five-man unit - the fact that only Vigouroux, Omar Beckles and Tom James have started more than 62% of their league matches is remarkable. Generally, itâs considered that a âsettled defensive unitâ is necessary for consistency. But Happe was injured, Turns stepped in. Hunt was injured, Sweeney stepped in. The wheels kept turning, the sheets remained pristine. Nineteen times this season, Leyton Orient have won to nil.
Wellens hasnât found his Eoin Doyle here: in fact, only Hartlepool United have scored fewer goals from inside the six yard box! But goals come from the system, goals come from the team, contrary to the myth of âneeding a 20-goal-a-season strikerâ. Paul Smyth and Theo Archibald have been the stars of the attack. Between the two of them, they have goal threat, creativity and dribbling prowess. Moncur and El Mizouni have offered goals from midfield, Ruel Sotiriou is a goal-sniffer from whichever position, and the centre-backs have popped up with set-piece contributions at opportune moments. The confidence of the team has been shown in their shooting from distance - with James, Smyth and Archibald have a compelling Goal of the Season battle between them.
Many opposition fans will say theyâve ânot been blown awayâ by Orient this season. But every single week, in every single game, theyâve played a game they are comfortable playing. They have managed tough spells better than anyone else, and made hay when the sun has shone. League Two isnât about blowing teams away. Itâs about a repeatable performance level and consistency.
On a wider level, Orientâs promotion - like Cheltenham Town and Cambridge United in recent season - show show possible it is to get out of this league without years of good work behind you. You donât need a long run up. You need the right manager at the right time, and good players that complement each other.
Leyton Orient are League One.
EFL Fixtures
Championship
Birmingham vs Blackpool
Bristol City vs Rotherham
Burnley vs QPR
Cardiff vs Stoke
Coventry vs Reading
Hull vs Watford
Norwich vs Swansea
Wigan vs Millwall
Preston vs Blackburn
West Brom vs Sunderland (Sunday 12:00)
Luton vs Middlesbrough (Monday 20:00)
League One
Barnsley vs Oxford Utd
Bolton vs Shrewsbury
Charlton vs Morecambe
Cheltenham vs Forest Green
Derby vs Burton Albion
Fleetwood Town vs MK Dons
Peterborough vs Ipswich
Plymouth vs Cambridge Utd
Port Vale vs Bristol Rovers
Portsmouth vs Accrington Stanley
Sheff Wed vs Exeter
Wycombe vs Lincoln City
League Two
AFC Wimbledon vs Swindon
Barrow vs Carlisle
Bradford vs Gillingham
Colchester vs Sutton Utd
Doncaster vs Newport County
Hartlepool vs Crawley Town
Leyton Orient vs Crewe
Mansfield vs Stevenage
Northampton vs Harrogate Town
Stockport vs Rochdale
Tranmere vs Grimsby
Walsall vs Salford