The Six Fix - Final Day Edition
Here we go, then. Final Weekend in the EFL, with each division given its own time slot. Ali & George chat through the pressure points and permutations.
Welcome to the Six Fix and this Final Day edition! We’re getting excited for the last round of fixtures in the EFL. There’s still so much up for grabs. An automatic promotion spot, play-off positions and the last vestiges of relegation battles.
And so, instead of six different fixtures, this week we’re going to talk about the six league positions that matter over a Bank Holiday weekend of inevitable permutations.
Press play, listen in, read along 👇
Championship 00:00 / -29:20
League One 09:40 / -19:42
League Two 20:56 / -08:24
Championship
5th + 6th
Middlesbrough vs Coventry
Millwall vs Blackburn
Preston vs Sunderland
Swansea vs West Brom
The Championship: The Battle of the Five Armies. Like the Hobbity version, this is the final part of a long season. Unlike the film, we’re desperate to see it. A five-team shoot-out. Two places up for grabs. When we look at 5th and 6th in the Championship, will there be a late charge, or will Coventry and Millwall just pull their socks up and do what's needed?
It feels like the most likely outcome is the simplest: that Coventry and Millwall finish the season in fifth and sixth. Although, that is not to say there isn't cause for belief for Sunderland, West Brom and Blackburn.
For Blackburn (9th/66pts), it's frustrating for them that they have Sunderland and West Bromwich above them with goal differences they cannot realistically beat. They need to beat Millwall and hope that Sunderland and West Brom fail to win, which seems quite unlikely. It’s a strange old position to be in—both in Blackburn’s hands to overtake Millwall and also not in their hands to overtake the others.
Sunderland (7th/66pts) are two points off Millwall and three points off Coventry. They have got a better goal difference than Millwall. So if they were to win and Millwall were to draw, they'd both be on 69, but Sunderland would go ahead of them. They've got a goal difference that is two goals worse than Coventry. So if Sunderland win and Coventry lose, their positions will flip because Sunderland would be either ahead on goal difference or on goals scored.
West Brom (8th) are also on 66. Two points behind Millwall and three from Cov, but their +7 goal difference means that catching Coventry, in particular, will be very, very difficult.
There's a really interesting wrinkle in this whole Middlesbrough vs Coventry situation. These are teams who currently occupy fourth and fifth, which means if they were to stay in that position, then they would play each other over two legs in the play-offs. That causes a few interesting ideas as to how they're gonna approach this game. Might Coventry come into this thinking (rightly or wrongly) they'd rather play Luton than Middlesbrough? A draw would most likely confirm that that would happen. It probably won’t impact the approach for either team, but Middlesbrough are very unlikely to down tools as maybe they would have done against another side. They won't want to concede first blood to a team they might well face twice over the next week or so. So that is something to look out for.
Prediction - Ali Maxwell
I think Sunderland will win against Preston, 3-0.
I think West Brom draw 2-2.
I think Millwall beat Blackburn 1-0.
So it all comes down to Coventry—I think they will avoid defeat at the Riverside, and that will be enough to seal their play-off spot.
So, after all that, I'm going to say Coventry and Mill will.
Prediction - George Elek
I think Millwall will beat Blackburn and overtake Coventry
Coventry, I think, will either draw or lose at Boro, meaning that it's going to be Luton against Coventry over two legs and Boro against Millwall over two legs
I think Sunderland will beat Preston away, but it won't be enough, given that Millwall have won.
And I also agree with you that I think West Brom will drop points against Swansea, a draw or a defeat there.
League One
6th
Bristol Rovers vs Bolton
Barnsley vs Peterborough
Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby
Let's talk about sixth baby, let’s talk about you and me.
Let’s talk about all the good things and the bad things.
There are two play-off teams playing two teams that are fighting for that last play-off spot — it makes for a fun scenario; there’s a psychological edge to it all.
Barnsley (4th) host Peterborough (7th). Sheffield Wednesday (3rd) against Derby (6th). So if Derby do make it into the play-offs, and if they do finish sixth, then that fixture will happen twice more in the next couple of weeks because Sheffield Wednesday (and Barnsley) are already locked into their places.
One thought on the locked-inners - and it’s that looming question that always crops up - is whether teams decide to give everyone a rest and get themselves ready for the play-off semi-final first leg. We’ve definitely seen that happen before, but generally, managers don't seem to like doing that - they don’t want to jinx themselves and tempt the wrath of the footballing Gods. Can’t see Wednesday and Barnsley rolling over and doing that for Derby and Posh.
And then there’s another wrinkle. Given they have a say, who would Sheffield Wednesday prefer to play in the play-offs? Suspicion alone points to Peterborough over Derby. Posh are on slightly better form than Derby, they finished the season slightly stronger, and their points return under Darren Ferguson has been very good since January. But in a two-legged game against one of these teams, Sheffield Wednesday would surely back themselves to outmuscle Peterborough, to be the more serious, the more sturdy, the more solid team, the team more suited to play-off football. It’s a hunch. But it adds to the narrative building behind Wednesday wanting to beat Derby.
Inversely, there's also the same wrinkle, as previously mentioned between Middlesbrough and Coventry. The likelihood of a Wednesday-vs-Derby play-off semi-final means there's going to be an element here where neither will want to give up first blood.
Prediction - Ali Maxwell:
Applying that to predictions: I think that Wednesday will beat Derby
They're so strong at home. And while they had that horrible run from mid-March to mid-April (winning 1 in 8 and picking up only 7 points), I'd say, looking back, it was the defence that let them down. They scored in all eight of those games, but the clean sheets just dried up a bit. I think Wednesday are recovered. They've been pretty good in their last three games; they've kept teams pretty quiet. Derby are a slightly different beast, but away from home, they're just not quite as strong for me. They're a ram at home and a lamb away from home.
I think Peterborough will win it at Barnsley, and I think that Derby might lose at Wednesday:
Peterborough 2-0 Barnsley
Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 Derby
That means that I think Peterborough will gatecrash the play-offs
Prediction - George Elek
I think they both lose, and Derby get through
I don't see Barnsley dropping their performance level too much, and they're such a dominant home team.
I think Wednesday will win, and then they'll play Derby again twice in the semis
20th
Burton Albion vs MK Dons
Cambridge Utd vs Forest Green
Exeter vs Morecambe
Oxford Utd vs Accrington Stanley
To the League One relegation battle.
Officially there are five teams whose relegation hasn't yet been confirmed. Two of them play against each other, but realistically their fates are already sealed. Accrington Stanley are down; they won’t make up that goal-difference deficit. Similarly, Oxford are on 47 points, they're only three points clear of the relegation zone, but their goal difference is about 20 better than most of those teams down there. No team is making that up. Oxford are safe. This leaves us with MK Dons, Morecambe and Cambridge.
Cambridge had safety in their hands. They looked the likeliest to stay up as they travelled to Burton on Wednesday night, but they lost that game 1-0. And that has meant that they've gone from being a team who had the best chance of staying up to suddenly having to rely on others. The good news for Cambridge, however, is that they have the easiest possible game against Forest Green. Forest Green who are relegated and who have only won six games this season. So you would anticipate that Cambridge will win that one. So let’s take it as read that Cambridge ends the season on 46 points.
That means that one of MK Dons or Morecambe have to win in order to overtake them and secure their own safety; a draw for either would not be enough (obviously, if Cambridge do drop points, all of that changes for Cambridge, but the equation remains the same for the two Ms).
MK Dons travel to Burton. Morecambe travel to Exeter. And it’s intriguing because these are two relegation-scrappers in very different form playing opponents - Burton (14th) and Exeter (15th) - who, whilst occupying similar positions in the table, are both in very different form themselves.
MK Dons have drawn 4 and lost 2 in their last six. A big old dip in form after looking for some time like they might be safe. Burton aren’t beachy. They’ve not downed tools; just ask Cambridge in midweek or Sheffield Wednesday the other day. When they play against teams who need wins, they're not giving them up very easily. And this tie against MK feels no different; Burton seem to relish the opportunity to dash dreams.
Morecambe go to Exeter, and this is a very different case where Morecambe have won their last three games, and they've got 10 points from their last 12 possible. Cole Stockton comes into it in brilliant goal-scoring form, they're full of confidence, and they play an Exeter side who were beaten 6-0 last weekend and have lost their last six games in a row. Exeter are the antithesis of Burton Albion, halfway down the beach running towards the sea with the bucket and spade out.
Prediction - George Elek
My prediction is that two of these three teams are going to win
Morecambe and Cambridge get the Ws
MK Dons and Cambridge watch on as Derek Adams pulls off another unbelievable and unbelievably great escape
League Two
3rd position
Tranmere vs Northampton
Stockport vs Hartlepool
League Two concludes between 12.30 and 2.30 on Monday. The excitement is top-heavy, with little to discuss outside the teams between third to eighth. Let’s start with third spot first. Stockport host Hartlepool, and they're trying to chase down Northampton, who travel to Tranmere.
Stockport are 1/5 to beat Hartlepool on Monday. Their hosts are relegated, albeit they've been fairly solid under John Askey. But Askey hung his Hartlepool players out to dry a little bit last time out, which might make for an interesting team selection. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few senior pros who are on their way out don't even play. So, it's a perfect game for Stockport, and if they win it, then their goal difference will be at least ten better than Northampton. Let’s just give them the win and assume Stockport County finish on 81 points.
That means that a Northampton draw would not be enough to see them into the top three, and that might make the whole thing nerve-jangly after what happened last season… (Northampton had to watch Bristol Rovers, in a game that was delayed beyond the normal time due to fans’ behaviour, who scored seven to knock the Cobblers out of the top three on final day).
But, on that day, Northampton did not crumble under pressure. They won when they needed to win; it’s just that Bristol Rovers scored seven. And this time, a win alone is enough. And it helps that they are playing Tranmere and that Tranmere are terrible, like really bad. Whilst Northampton finished the season with four wins and a draw in their last five—under massive pressure, they are the ones who are sitting in third spot; they are the ones who have grabbed their chance.
Prediction - Ali Maxwell
I think Cobblers are going to hit them very, very hard. Last year was exciting, the story of Bristol Rovers gazumping them to the title was pretty amazing. But I'm saying no drama this time around. Cobblers get it done and win promotion into League One. And I'll be absolutely delighted for them if they do. Stockport, I expect to win and win comfortably against Hartlepool. But only good enough for fourth.
7th position
Bradford vs Leyton Orient
Colchester vs Mansfield
Salford vs Gillingham
Sutton Utd vs Carlisle
Carlise, Salford and Bradford are all three points above Mansfield. That makes the mathematical gymnastics fairly simple: Stags must win, one team must lose, and if that happens, it becomes an equation of goal difference, and we have to ask by how many?
If the Stags-win-someone-loses scenario happens, then Bradford’s goal difference is the most easily overcome. Salford’s goal difference is surmountable. But realistically, Carlisle’s isn’t - Stags would need an eight-goal swing to level.
So the question is whether Mansfield will put on a big performance. Colchester could be awkward opponents. They have a manager who's come into the club fairly late in the season, and with a new playing style, there’s a keen sense that some players are playing for their future with Ben Garner. Couple that with Mansfield's indifferent form coming into this game, and it’s clear that this is no gimme.
Salford come into this in decent form. They've got a home game against a Gillingham team with nothing to play for. We know that Gillingham are a fairly sturdy opponent, but I don't think Salford will have too much trouble getting the point they need to secure their place going forward.
Bradford, at home to Leyton Orient, if you listen to the Betting Show, you'll have heard an argument about the league winner’s preference for a sun lounger in Dubai to an away fixture in Bradford. So it seems pretty likely that Bradford pick up at least the point they need.
Prediction - George Elek
As much as I want to get excited about League 2, I struggle to plot a route for Mansfield to make it into the play-offs, so I think - excitement-wise - it’s all eyes on third spot and Tranmere vs Northampton.
EFL Fixtures
The Championship
Birmingham vs Sheffield Utd
Burnley vs Cardiff
Huddersfield vs Reading
Luton vs Hull
Middlesbrough vs Coventry
Millwall vs Blackburn
Norwich vs Blackpool
Preston vs Sunderland
QPR vs Bristol City
Swansea vs West Brom
Watford vs Stoke
Wigan vs Rotherham
League One
Barnsley vs Peterborough
Bristol Rovers vs Bolton
Burton Albion vs MK Dons
Cambridge Utd vs Forest Green
Cheltenham vs Charlton
Exeter vs Morecambe
Fleetwood Town vs Ipswich
Lincoln City vs Shrewsbury
Oxford Utd vs Accrington Stanley
Port Vale vs Plymouth
Portsmouth vs Wycombe
Sheff Wed vs Derby
League Two
Barrow vs Stevenage
Bradford vs Leyton Orient
Colchester vs Mansfield
Grimsby vs AFC Wimbledon
Harrogate Town vs Rochdale
Newport County vs Crewe
Salford vs Gillingham
Stockport vs Hartlepool
Sutton Utd vs Carlisle
Swindon vs Crawley Town
Tranmere vs Northampton
Walsall vs Doncaster
Amazingly well put together!