The Six Fix - the ultimate preview for the penultimate weekend
Ali & George highlight the biggest fixtures of the EFL weekend with scoreline predictions, and congratulate Sheff Utd on promotion to the Premier League.
It’s the penultimate weekend in the EFL season proper. Big inhale. There’s still a huge amount to get excited about in every league, especially amongst the relegation battles. You’re covered for the big games in The Six Fix, and we’ve made some bold selections and GS picks in this week’s Betting Show. Don’t exhale… not yet!
Press play, listen in, read along 👇
Championship picks 01:37 / -31:42
League One picks 13:31 / -19:49
League Two 23:43 / -09:44
Championship
First, a big congratulations to Sheffield United…
Securing promotion to Premier League and reaching an FA Cup Semi-Final is a 10/10 season! Since Paul Heckingbottom took over, the Blades have been an unrelenting winning machine. Losing the play-off semi final last year only made them steelier.
At the start of the seasons, they won 7 in 10. In the deep midwinter, they rattled off 11 wins in 14. And, after defeats to the approaching Middlesbrough and Millwall, with the pressure gauge spiking, they’ve ground out 8 wins in 11.
Paul Heckingbottom is going to get his flowers on the Monday pod, that’s for sure. As a great man once said “Enjoy it [Blades], but enjoy it by being effing disciplined.” That includes you, assistant manager Stuart McCall.
Big game pick - Reading (22nd) vs Wigan (24th)
George Elek
This is a bigger weekend for the Royals then next weekend will be for the soon-to-be Charles III. The King can be certain of the outcome, but these Championship Royals cannot… Wigan; it’s not looking pretty, but Maloney is no phoney. He’s got them fighting for everything.
Two sides whose chances of survival would be dramatically improved had they not faced points deductions brought on by irresponsible ownership, and that’s both sad and maddening. Nobody wants to see teams relegated for off-the-field matters.
But we are where we are, and those docked points aren’t the sheep’s clothing protecting the identity of two quality wolves. These are not great sides. Noel Hunt’s interim spell at Reading has secured decent results, most notably that stifling of Burnley in a 0-0 draw. Albeit, that result was the start of a chopped-and-changed Burnley who have achieved all they can and have, to some extent, downed a tool or two. Reading have also drawn with Luton — that was an impressive point. And then they deservedly lost to Coventry. There isn’t a win to speak of there, even if the results are decent ‘on paper’.
Have the performances been great? I’m not sure they have.
Andy Carroll is still suspended for this one, but Shane Long got some minutes against Coventry and may start; there’s talk of Junior Hoilett and Tom Ince returning too, and their reappearance could be significant. Home form has been key for Reading, and this is a massive opportunity to make survival a possibility.
For Wigan… I’m not convinced that a win here is quite as significant as it sounds. They’re three points from safety with two games left to play. Obviously, that makes this must-win. Still, with Cardiff beating Rotherham on Thursday night - a highly entertaining game - they are now chasing one team: Huddersfield. Huddersfield play Cardiff on Sunday, and have a game in hand against Blades on Tuesday. Wigan are relying on others. Catching Huddersfield also means overtaking Reading and Blackpool too; not impossible, but when you consider that Huddersfield play Reading on the last day of the season - where one or both will pick up points - there is just so much mathematical gymnastics required even if they are - and they are - playing quite well.
It would be one of the biggest miracles of all time if Wigan stay up
Prediction: Reading 1-1 Wigan
Big game pick - WBA (9th) v Norwich (11th)
Ali Maxwell
The battle of the misfiring big guns.
In our pre-season 1-24 predictions for the Championship, we had Norwich picked in second-place and West Brom in sixth-place. It’s not exactly panned out that way… but sixth place will be within the grasp of one of these teams if either of them take three points—win and it goes down to the final day. That adds intrigue and excitement despite both teams’ serving up a huge portion of meh this season.
West Brom two points off sixth. Norwich three points off sixth. With plenty of traffic around them on Play-Off highway, it’s still unlikely either will make it, and it will be seen as a really poor season for both if they fail to do so. Whoever is on the wrong side of the result - or if it ends as a draw - there is going to be a lot of bad feeling from the fans.
Both teams come into the game in poor form. West Brom have lost two on the spin and Corberan is struggling to get a tune out of an admittedly injury-hampered team. They simply don’t create very much in open play. There isn’t an obvious in-form player. That goes for Norwich too. Last four games: LDLD. Ouch.
Very few Norwich fans are holding out hope for a miraculous return to form. They also have injury issues. They aren’t playing well. But they are still in with a shout; that’s just the maths. And it makes this game a shoot-out, a cup match. Who will keep their season alive?
Prediction: WBA 1-0 Norwich
League One
Big game pick - Accrington (22nd) vs Cambridge 23rd)
🚨DOUBLE PICK🚨 George Elek & Ali Maxwell
One thing we've noticed since starting The Six Fix is that there is almost always one obvious 'big game'. A clear pick. Yes, we take it in turns for who gets to pick first and who gets to pick second. And something else is abundantly obvious: there's usually a clear second-pick too. A game with almost as much intrigue, almost as much significance. Not this weekend…
The relegation battle in League One is maybe the most exciting thing left in the EFL
George Elek
There will almost certainly be three relegated teams who go into the final day with a shout of staying up. Nothing is certain, and the unwinding of all that uncertainty will be a twisty, turny spectacle. Even more so after mid-week games in which:
Accrington pulled off a 1-0 win against Bolton
Oxford beat Cheltenham 4-0
Before we start dissecting this pick, let's take a look at the cross-section.
And let’s start with what this weekend's fixture cannot tell us. It cannot tell us:
whether Morecambe will pick up points against Lincoln on Saturday
whether Oxford can make themselves all but mathematically safe by beating Forest Green
whether MK Dons will get a result against a Barnsley team who can now only reach the play-offs
whether Cambridge’s game in hand against Burton on Tuesday 3 May will be HUGELY significant or just significant
What we do know is that Accrington Stanley of the League One Relegation Zone versus Cambridge United of the League One Relegation Zone is massive. It’s huge.
After an impressive 0-1 away win at Bolton, Accrington found a W after a run of 4 winless matches. Cambridge United fell to their second consecutive defeat in a 3-1 loss to Plymouth.
Over the season, Accrington have taken only 23 points from 22 home games. Cambridge's away record is woeful: 12 points from 21 played and a third of those points came within their last 6 games in a 2-0 win over Port Vale and a 1-1 draw with Bolton. Accies have won two and lost six in eight games, and *funny quirk alert* both of those wins came against Bolton and Port Vale.
No result is confounding. But what might separate these teams is a goalscorer. Someone who can provide some consistency. Enter: Cambridge’s Sam Smith. Six goals in six games for a team whose levels have been pretty good over the past month or so. We think that gives Cambridge an edge.
Predictions:
Ali: Accrington 1-2 Cambridge
George: Accrington 0-2 Cambridge
Honourable mention for…
There are two fixtures that are massive at the other end of the table.
Plymouth Argyle vs Burton
Ipswich Town vs Exeter
A win for one or both home teams secures promotion in what has been an incredibly tight League One automatic race of 3x team with 90+ points. We think they’ll both notch another win - sorry, Wednesday fans.
League Two
Big game pick - Carlisle (5th) vs Salford (6th)
George Elek
If the League One relegation race is the most exciting thing in the EFL, then the crazy traffic jam at the top of League Two isn’t far behind.
We’re almost there. I reckon what has been a congested battle for the top three will be a much quieter road to traverse after this weekend. Northampton and Stevenage are just a win away from joining Orient in League One next season. There may however be enough question marks around Stevenage’s form to consider the possibility of them dropping points at the last. It’s a maybe.
That leaves a huge scrap for the play-off places:
Carlisle who have for aaaages been in and around the automatic spots now find themselves closer to 8th-placed Mansfield than they are to 3rd-placed Stevenage. A loss here and suddenly, it’s all looking a bit scary. At the same time, they have a small chance of nicking an automatic spot.
Meanwhile, Salford have no chance of nicking an automatic spot and a reasonable chance of missing out on the play-off spots. But I almost feel they are more likely to remain in the top 7 than Carlisle who have won only 2 in 6 and have been fairly unconvincing for some time. Salford will be smelling blood and framing this as a huge opportunity to secure their place in the play-offs. Expect drama. High stakes.
Prediction: Carlisle 1-2 Salford
Big game pick - Northampton v Bradford
Ali Maxwell
A Northampton win and they are promoted. Stockport and Carlisle will be hoping for a miraculous Northampton "collapse". Although, even they did lose this one, I don't think that Andy Cook & Co spoiling the Sixfields broth would be either that surprising or too detrimental. Northampton play an all-but-relegated Hartlepool on the final day where the nerves, if results elsewhere went against them, could be jangling.
Bradford started to put together a run which looked like it may be a late surge for the automatic stops. Unfortunately for them, this League Two station has a short platform and they are unable to alight from the first two coaches and the doors of the third are looking jammed shut too, but there's an enormously outside chance they could force them open.
That’s because Bradford have a game in hand on all around them. A tie versus Crewe the filling between two slices of Northampton and Leyton Orient on the final day. I don’t think Bradford have been that convincing going forwards under Mark Hughes, with Andy Cook somewhat saving him from some fair questions about overall team attacking quality. Solidifying their play-off position is probably the best they can hope for. And there’s a sense that, for both teams, a draw is a decent enough result.
Prediction: 0-0
EFL Fixtures
The Championship
Blackpool vs Millwall (Fri 28/04)
Bristol City vs Burnley
Coventry vs Birmingham
Hull vs Swansea
Reading vs Wigan
Sheffield Utd vs Preston
Stoke vs QPR
Sunderland vs Watford
West Brom vs Norwich
Cardiff vs Huddersfield (Sun 30/04)
Rotherham vs Middlesbrough (Mon 01/05)
Blackburn vs Luton Mon (01/05)
League One
Accrington vs Cambridge
Bolton vs Fleetwood Town
Charlton vs Port Vale
Derby vs Portsmouth
Forest Green vs Oxford Utd
Ipswich vs Exeter
MK Dons vs Barnsley
Morecambe vs Lincoln City
Peterborough vs Bristol Rovers
Plymouth vs Burton Albion
Shrewsbury vs Sheff Wed
Wycombe vs Cheltenham
League Two
Carlisle vs Salford
Crawley Town vs Walsall
Crewe vs Swindon
Doncaster vs Colchester
Gillingham vs Newport County
Hartlepool vs Barrow
Leyton Orient vs Stockport
Mansfield vs Harrogate Town
Northampton vs Bradford
Rochdale vs Sutton Utd
Stevenage vs Grimsby
Wimbledon vs Tranmere