Top seven or bottom half? League Two’s Royal Rumble!
Two-thirds of the teams in the fourth tier still have aspirations of promotion; we cover the madness from 6th to 16th.
Matt Watts
Once or twice a week, an incident, storyline or piece of content in the EFL will connect with the wider footballing public. You know, the sort of thing that your Premier League-loving mates mention to you in the pub or tag you in on social media (Who are they kidding? Of course you’ve already seen it!) In recent weeks, Jaden Philogene’s rabona, Mick Beale’s burner account, Neil Harris’ improbable rise through the leagues and some bloke’s header at Brisbane Road have all gone viral. Even last weekend, Mike Taliadoros’ commentary of Ronan Curtis’ winner for AFC Wimbledon against MK Dons, coupled with the scenes of unbridled joy that followed, was viewed by millions of people on the app formerly known as Twitter.
But, in amongst all of the noise, something as simple as a good old-fashioned league table can also catch the eye of the masses. This week, it’s “Have you seen how tight the bottom of the Championship is?” Last week, it was “Have you seen how tight the middle of League Two is?” Did I mention the fact that we’ve also got a title race in the Championship?
These leagues are the gifts that keep on giving and, luckily for us, they have a lot more to give between now and the end of May. Then again, it’s hard to escape the fact that they’ve given us so much already. Now, I know that you aren’t supposed to have a favourite child but, this season, League Two has been the apple of my eye. The shark-infested waters of the fourth tier have delivered goals - lots of goals - often in the form of hat-tricks or inordinately high-scoring games (anyone for a game of League Two scorigami?) There’s also been a record-breaking winning run, a record-breaking appearance-maker and a record-breaking assist machine.
With less than two months of the season to go, two-thirds of the teams in the fourth tier still have aspirations of promotion. Granted, some of those aspirations are more realistic than others, but isn’t this part of what makes the EFL (and the play-off system, in particular) so great?
Of course, there’s still plenty of intrigue and uncertainty at the tops of the Championship and League One but, unlike League Two, they don’t have the holy trinity of a closely-fought title race, a bun fight for automatic promotion and the makings of a ten team Royal Rumble for the last couple of play-off places.
Since New Year’s Day, nine different teams have occupied a play-off spot in League Two, but who will be in the top seven when the music stops on April 27th? With the teams between 6th and 16th currently separated by just ten points, here’s a look at some of the lesser-mentioned runners and riders for a play-off spot in League Two:
6. Barrow
Played: 34
Points: 56
Goal Difference: +10
In recent weeks, Pete Wild’s trademark upper-cut fist pumps have been fewer and further between. Granted, this is partly down to the Great British weather (before Tuesday night, the Bluebirds hadn’t played since February 17th), but it’s also because Barrow’s form has tailed off somewhat. A run of seven league wins in a row before Christmas has given way to a run of just three wins in 12 games post-Christmas. Barrow were 2nd on Christmas Day having conceded just 17 goals in their opening 22 matches. Despite their 1-0 wins over Tranmere and MK Dons and their 2-0 victory against Gillingham, it’s hard to get away from the fact that Wild’s once watertight defence has been conceding a shade under two goals a game over their last 12 matches. However, if they can build on Tuesday night’s win (and clean sheet), with the likes of Cole Stockton, Dom Telford, Ben Whitfield and Emile Acquah ready to contribute in the final third and a run of four home games in their next five, those wild Wild fist-pumps might become commonplace once again.
7. Walsall
Played: 35
Points: 54
Goal Difference: +7
On February 16th, Walsall’s participation in our Royal Rumble was in doubt. They were 16th in League Two; eight points off 7th. However, a run of five wins in a row saw the Saddlers jump from 16th to 6th in just two weeks. Those five wins were a result of Mat Sadler’s men hitting the back of the net on 12 occasions with direct goal contributions from 11 different players. Walsall have the lowest average possession in the fourth tier this season and they’ve had significantly less of the ball than their opponents in each of their last five games. There’s a reason why it’s only 9/10s of the law.
Having dropped to 7th after the midweek fixtures, the Saddlers face three of the bottom eight in their next four games. If the wins keep on coming then it won’t be long until Walsall have an eye on a top-three finish.
8. Morecambe
Played: 35
Points: 54
Goal Difference: -2
If you thought that Morecambe’s season would fall apart after Derek Adams’ latest departure, you were wrong. If you thought that Morecambe’s season would fall apart after they lost four key players (who had 28 goal contributions between them) in January, you were wrong again. The Shrimps have to scrimp, but they are made of stern stuff – as proved by their recent comeback wins against MK Dons, Crawley, Tranmere and Crewe. With Ged Garner now leading the line for Ged Brannan’s side – supported by the likes of new additions Joe Adams, Gwion Edwards and Julian Larsson as well as Jordan Slew and Charlie Brown – it’s clear that the cast has changed significantly, but the Shrimps ability to carry on picking up results and keep on mixing it with some of League Two’s sharks is commendable. It feels as though Morecambe are going slightly under the radar in the race for the play-offs, and that will suit them just fine.
9. Gillingham
Played: 36
Points: 54
Goal Difference: -7
After an excellent second half of last season and with the team sitting 8th in League Two 11 games into the current campaign, Gillingham’s decision to part company with Neil Harris caused many an eyebrow to be raised. A delay of four weeks before appointing his successor, Stephen Clemence, also came as a surprise. With owner Brad Galinson keen to see his side have more of the ball and play more entertaining football, Clemence was tasked with changing the style of play, whilst also continuing to get results. For a first-time boss to do this mid-season is no mean feat; however, unlike a few other head coaches who have faced a similar task this season, Clemence opted for evolution over revolution. After experimenting with 4-1-4-1 and 4-2-3-1 formations, the signing of Remeao Hutton and the return of Oli Hawkins saw Clemence shift to a 3-5-2 around the turn of year. Under Clemence, the Kent club have had slightly more of the ball; however, they are still the joint lowest scorers in League Two with the joint most clean sheets. Gillingham may not be The Entertainers just yet, but their ability to grind out results; winning ten games 1-0 in League Two this season, could stand them in good stead as the pressure starts ramping up.
10. AFC Wimbledon
Played: 36
Points: 51
Goal Difference: +9
It’s been a difficult start to 2024 for AFC Wimbledon. Having ended 2023 just inside the top seven, a range of factors such as the Asia Cup, injuries to key players, loanees being recalled and losing one of the division’s best strikers have all made Johnnie Jackson’s life more difficult. That being said, the victory over MK Dons and the celebrations that followed are memories that will last a lifetime for everyone connected with the club (out of interest, has anyone seen that ball boy?)
All three of Wimbledon’s league wins this calendar year have come at Plough Lane. If winning on the road is becoming an issue then so is hitting the back of the net. Ronan Curtis’ 94th minute-winner against MK was just their eighth goal in 12 league games this year. While the defence has coped fairly well despite notable absentees, clearly there is an Ali Al-Hamadi-shaped hole in Wimbledon’s attack. According to SoccerStats, Johnnie Jackson’s side also have the most difficult run-in (decided by home and away PPG) of our Royal Rumblers. If Wimbledon are going to make the play-offs then they’re going to have to do it the hard way. Given everything that they’ve overcome over the last 20 years or so, will that faze them? No chance.
11. Crawley Town
Played: 34
Points: 49
Goal Difference: -1
After a summer spent replacing the likes of Dom Telford, James Tilley and Ashley Nadesan with a handful of players who hadn’t exactly set the world alight in League Two and a number of players from non-league, Crawley were tipped by many to struggle this season. After all, their first season under the ownership of WAGMI United had seen the Red Devils finish 22nd – just one place and three points above the relegation zone. However, Scott Lindsey’s side have confounded expectations and they’ve done it by looking to get the ball down and play. Only Notts County have a higher average possession percentage than the West Sussex side in League Two this season. With 15 league goals to his name, Danilo Orsi has proved to be a very smart pick up – as have Adam Campbell and Liam Kelly who both have ten goal contributions to their names. A run of three wins in a row without conceding at the end of February was followed by a potentially costly defeat to Morecambe on Tuesday night. Corey Addai’s remarkable Goals Prevented Rate speaks to a team who have potentially been riding their luck at the back but, given how far they’ve come this season, only a fool would write-off Crawley.
12. Newport County
Played: 35
Points: 49
Goal Difference: -3
Of the 24 teams in League Two, only Crewe and Walsall have averaged more points per game in 2024 than Graham Coughlan’s Newport. The Exiles have won six league games since the turn of the year – a run which includes victories over the likes of Wrexham, Walsall and Gillingham. County are one of the faster, more direct teams in League Two. They’ve forced significantly more high turnovers than any other team in the fourth tier this season. Former Cardiff Met Uni and Bala Town man Will Evans already has 20 league goals to his name in 23/24, with five goals and two assists in February alone. Newport’s remaining fixtures pit them against one top-five team (Stockport on Saturday), six fellow Rumblers and four teams who didn’t make it onto the card. Could Evans, who openly admits that he learnt his trade playing in ‘farmers’ leagues, end his fairytale campaign by playing at the most famous stadium in world football? Possibly.
13. Harrogate Town
Played: 35
Points: 49
Goal Difference: -11
For those of us who consider ourselves EFL nerds, one of the toughest League Two-related questions this season has been, “What do you make of Harrogate Town?”
In the first half of the campaign, Simon Weaver’s side had an uncanny knack of winning games that they seemed to be second-best in. Harrogate lost the xG battle in six of their ten league wins before New Year’s Day. But then, something changed. A run of four wins and two draws from six games in January and the start of February saw the Sulphurites move into the top seven and, unlike earlier in the season, the underlying numbers suggested that these results might just be sustainable. However, as is often the way, the run didn’t last and Town have taken just two points from their next five games. To make matters worse, they’ve mustered a measly five shots on target in those five games with three of those efforts coming in the 9-2 defeat to Mansfield. Given their recent form, it’s hard to see the Sulphurites finishing in the top seven, but a midtable finish would be an improvement on their 17th and 19th-place finishes in previous seasons.
14. Notts County
Played: 34
Points: 47
Goal Difference: +3
How do you solve a problem like Notts County? Along with table-toppers Mansfield, the ‘pies have scored more goals than any other team in League Two this season. They also possess the league’s top scorer (Macaulay Langstaff) and the league’s top assister (Jodi Jones). In fact, Jones had already broken the record for the most assists in a single League Two season before Valentine’s Day. However, only basement boys Sutton have conceded more goals than Notts in the fourth tier this season. Their inability to defend (and their ability to consistently shoot themselves in the foot) is alarming. With just one win in their nine league games this year, many will point to the departure of Luke Williams as the turning point in Notts’ season. In reality though, they had already started to tail off under Williams. Of their 47 points, Notts had picked up 30 of them before Halloween. Having once appeared to be a lock for a top-seven finish, it’s now hard to make a case for Stuart Maynard’s side breaking back into the play-off places. That being said, if they can tighten up at the back and stop giving bad goals away, whilst also maintaining their undoubted potency in the final third, then maybe they could have another dramatic play-off campaign, culminating in promotion at Wembley. At this stage, it’s a very big maybe.
15. Bradford City
Played: 34
Points: 47
Goal Difference: +2
Having trailed for much of the game, a point at home to Doncaster on Tuesday wasn’t necessarily a bad result but, if Bradford are going to gatecrash the play-off party, it’s the sort of game that they really need to be winning. The Bantams were on a run of four wins and five clean sheets in a row before a cruel defeat to Wycombe in the semi-final of the Bristol Street Motors Trophy. Unfortunately, due to a postponement on Saturday and the draw on Tuesday night, it feels as though a significant chunk of that momentum has been lost. No team currently in the bottom half of League Two has conceded fewer goals than Bradford, but only three teams in the entire league have scored fewer goals than them this season. With Jake Young potentially out until the end of the season, much of the goalscoring burden will once again rest on the broad shoulders of Andy Cook. A top-seven finish may feel like a longshot for the Bantams, but they have got at least one game in hand on most of the teams around them and they still have six games left against some of the other teams involved in the Royal Rumble.
16. Accrington Stanley
Played: 35
Points: 46
Goal Difference: -1
A bit like the club’s statement to announce the departures of John Coleman and Jimmy Bell, I’ll keep this brief – Accrington’s hopes of finishing in the top seven are incredibly slim. Not only are they eight points off 7th with 11 games to go, but they also have a lot of traffic in between them and the play-off places. Throw in a run of three defeats in a row and the upheaval caused by parting ways with their long-serving management duo and it’s hard to make a case for Accy. However, their next three home games are all against fellow Rumblers and we have seen interim managers completely transform a team’s fortunes in the past. Over to you, John Doolan.
Thanks for reading, and go well!
Great read chaps. You’re spot on about Notts imo, a lot blaming Maynard but the issues have been there for a while. I’ve often cited the Wrexham home game (28th Oct) as where the form started to go, and since NYD it’s got worse.
The defending is shambolic, and it seems no matter what players make up the back 4 or 5 the same errors keep getting made. I think we’re the soft touch to end all soft touches atm and any team in the league will fancy their chances v us. You don’t have to do much to score 3 or more v us.
Sadly I can’t see us mustering a run of form together now till the end of the season, but then serious questions will be asked in summer - the talk all Jan was the aim was play offs, and that isn’t going to be achieved.
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