Twelve big questions ahead of Tuesday's EFL slate
There are some massive midweek games at the top and bottom of each league – Huw Davies sets the scene
We interrupt your regularly scheduled programming to get all giddy and that about the EFL’s midweek action. Not The Top Tables will be updated on Friday, taking these matches into account.
Now, let’s whet those appetites…
1. Is Chesterfield v Grimsby the biggest game of the night?
It’s what I’d be watching on my phone were I sitting on the bench at Anfield, avoiding eye-contact with the gaffer as he looks to bring me on against PSG. Just look at this:
There’s a case to be made that this season’s League Two play-offs race has been of a higher standard than ever before. If we take each team’s current PPG and extrapolate it across 46 games, 11 teams would pass the 70-point mark. Across the last 20 years, that average is between six and seven (no, I’m not doing the hands thing). Three teams finished 2nd with the points tally currently projected for Swindon and Salford, whose playoff berths look a little vulnerable.
In Chesterfield and Grimsby, we have two clubs who each had sights on being the sheriff of this here town but now know that the top seven may not be big enough for the both of them. Although they’re both firing, too many points have been dropped on the road to this showdown.
The Spireites have home advantage. Grimsby have an extra fixture in their back pocket. This duel won’t end either’s season, but the loser will leave it with a painful exit wound.
2. Can Saints leapfrog Boro?
On 9th February, Middlesbrough beat Sheffield United to go 18 points clear of Southampton. They probably didn’t even notice. Why would they? The important thing was that the 2-1 win at Bramall Lane sent Boro top of the table, two points clear of Coventry and seven clear of Ipswich, who’d played one fewer fixture. Meanwhile, Saints were 14th, which in itself represented a huge improvement as a result of taking 10 points from their previous four matches.
Barely two months later, a win for Tonda Eckert’s side will send them above Middlesbrough on goal difference, with Boro falling out of the top four for the first time since opening day (having only just fallen out of the top three for the first time since opening day). You’d have to say it seems likely. Visitors Blackburn are unbeaten in five and keeping things tight at the back, but Southampton go into this on the back of WDWWWDWWDWWWWW, which isn’t so much a form line as a URL.
3. Will Rotherham be the first team relegated from League One, despite being 22nd?
This quirk is brought to you by Games In Hand™, for all of your obfuscation needs. Does your league table look too clear and easy to read? Don’t you wish you could muddy the waters a bit? Then you need Games In Hand™, and if you don’t believe us, believe our customers (“Ideal for postponing the inevitable” – Port Vale; “A total pain in the arse” – Ipswich Town).
In League One, only five of the 24 teams have played their 43 designated fixtures to date. Most have played 41 or 42. A few have played 40. Vale have played 39. It’s confusing, it’s annoying, and this season it’s going to last until the final week.
Rotherham will have their relegation to League Two mathematically confirmed tonight if they lose at Wigan, whatever happens elsewhere. Yet they’ll still be 22nd, unless Port Vale jump two places by beating Barnsley.
Northampton are all but down, needing to win their remaining five matches while Leyton Orient or Wimbledon lose all four of theirs – and they’d need a favourable goal difference swing even then – but that won’t be confirmed until tomorrow, if at all, when the Cobblers face Luton. Vale’s fate could be sealed tomorrow, depending on certain results. But Rotherham would be the first, should they hit a Brick (Community Stadium).
4. How many teams are actually in this League One mess?
The key protagonists of the League One relegation battle aren’t playing this midweek, but their spectre looms like Banquo’s ghost. It’s all about Exeter, as any driver of a holidaying family on the M5 will spend half an hour telling himself after missing the Taunton Deane Services turnoff.
Exeter do not have a fixture. However, Barnsley and Wigan host two of the doomed bottom three, while Leyton Orient and Mansfield face each other. Those four should be safe, and in the case of Barnsley, Mansfield and Wigan they are sort of safe… but there’s that ghost again, shaking its gory locks at them.
Exeter could conceivably take six or more points from their three remaining fixtures against an injury-ravaged Stockport (Kyle Wootton played in defence at Wembley on Sunday), an inconsistent Burton Albion and a travel-sick Bradford who’ll be resting legs for the play-offs. There’s still work for these teams to do, even if it’s just rubber-stamping their sign-up form for the 2026/27 League One campaign.
There’s definitely work for Orient to do. Their remaining fixtures are relatively friendly – Rotherham, Blackpool, Burton – but three points against Mansfield would immediately send them four or five places up the table. No time like the present.
5. Can Barrow put their Football League destiny in their own hands?
Beating Oldham won’t be easy, not least as being four points off the League Two play-off places means Oldham have it all to gain and nothing to lose, but Barrow have improved. Four fixtures against some of the league’s best teams have brought them a win over Bromley, a draw with MK Dons and only narrow defeats to Chesterfield and Barnet.
Even a point against the Latics could potentially make a big difference. Barrow host Newport on final day, so bringing themselves to within three points of County with a draw tonight would put things within their control, as long as they match their results before then.
6. What will cause Portsmouth v Ipswich to be postponed this time?
When this fixture was originally called off, it was the first time in 13 years that a match at Fratton Park had been postponed because of the weather. A month later, it was rearranged a second time. So, after excessive frost in January and excess rain in February, what’s it to be this time? High winds? Solar eclipse? A plague of locusts?
Ipswich just want the damned thing played – win it and they’re five points clear of 3rd with another game in hand. Portsmouth host Leicester this weekend, so a point or three here would ease the pressure on that game a touch.
7. Why are ColU and Accy meeting on the beach?
This match was also meant to happen in January, when supposed relegation candidates Accrington already had double the points of the bottom two. In fact, they had just sold star centre-back Benn Ward, in an act of sublime self-confidence in their own survival.
Accy were first to the beach. Colchester arrived later and in a very different mood, brought low by dwindling play-off aspirations.
Danny Cowley’s side are 6th for expected goal difference and have looked better than their league position (13th) for most of the season. With young talent, though, comes youthful unpredictability: Kyreece Lisbie, Samson Tovide and loanee Micah Mbick are all aged 19 to 22 and have a combined 32 goal contributions, but they can’t turn it on every week.
Both sides, then, have hopeful eyes on 2026/27 – and in ColU’s case, possibly with new owners.
8. Are Stevenage the real deal?
If so, playing away at Bolton provides a great chance to prove it. All season, people have assumed Stevenage are going to drop out of the promotion race, but they just ain’t – in fact, eight wins from their last 12 suggests they’re motoring towards the finish line (if the finish line had an extra bit of racetrack afterwards for the play-offs).
In contrast, Bolton have won only four of their last 12, continuing their season-long theme of drawing too many games. Automatic promotion is long gone. There’s still time for them to warm up ahead of the post-season but yet another draw here, or even a defeat, would twist the knife; after all, they could face Stevenage again in the play-offs.
At least Bolton’s play-off place is secure, though… right?
9. Does anyone outside Cheltenham and Gillingham care about Cheltenham v Gillingham?
I’m fascinated as to whether this tie will have a single viewer among neutrals watching Sky Sports+. The simple facts are these: Cheltenham could climb from 19th to 18th with a win. Gillingham could climb from 17th to 16th with a win.
JEOPARDY.
10. Does anyone inside Cheltenham and Gillingham care about Cheltenham v Gillingham?
The continuation of Cheltenham’s EFL status – though inevitable for months – was mathematically confirmed at the weekend, and Steve Cotterill’s tears showed how much staying up meant to him and everyone associated with the Robins. Professional pride notwithstanding, the job is done, and they’d probably be fine with the season ending now.
Gillingham would definitely be fine with the season ending now, because the longer it goes on, the further they slide. This is the lowest they’ve been in the table all season and the vibe around the place is grim. When even Gareth Ainsworth can’t inject positivity into a club, it’s time for everybody to have a few months off in order to recharge, recalibrate and reconcile themselves with the fact that they’ll probably feel the same way this time next year.
11. Will Cardiff be promoted tonight?
No… but they could be promoted tomorrow. It’s true that a win at Huddersfield tonight would put the Bluebirds 13 points clear of third-placed Bradford with only four games to play, but Stockport are a few points back with two matches in hand.
However, if that win transpires and then Dave Challinor’s cheeky chappies fail to beat Wimbledon at Plough Lane on Wednesday, Cardiff will be promoted in their dressing gowns and slippers. “Hello, room service? Bottle of bubbly, please…”
12. Is there somewhere I can listen to a podcast recapping these games on Thursday?
On Thursday, Under The Lights, our podcast for paid subscribers, will bring more Monday Pod-style analysis to one of the last remaining midweek slates of the 2025/26 season.
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