Very specific predictions for the Championship play-offs
The Championship Play-Offs are HERE. In the first of a three-part series, Huw Davies assesses how each team will score – and who'll make it to Wembley.
MINI TABLE
First leg: Friday 8th May, 8pm — MKM Stadium
Second leg: Monday 11th May, 8pm — The Den
HEAD TO HEAD
13th Dec: Millwall 1-3 Hull
7th Mar: Hull 1-3 Millwall
Oli McBurnie is Hull’s assassin, battering ram, Swiss Army knife and nuclear weapon.
He can receive the ball with his back to goal and hold it up or spin his marker. He’ll drift wide, forcing defenders to vacate a space for Kyle Joseph, Joe Gelhardt, Mohamed Belloumi or Matt Crooks to exploit. He wins aerial duels (81% percentile among strikers). He takes half-chances (17 goals – the second-most in the Championship – from just 12.3 xG). He created Hull’s last goal against Millwall by flicking on a long pass while being marked by three players. If Millwall can effectively sit on him this time, they’ll improve their chances tenfold.
Much has been made of Hull’s overperformance in attack, desecrating the sacred Underlying Numbers, but a part of that is down to their approach. Though it’s true they’ve been clinical, they don’t spam shots from distance, which can overinflate xG figures through sheer volume. Their plan is to get the ball into the best possible position from which to score, before shooting. That’s why they have scored the joint-fewest goals from outside the box in the league this season, a mere two, while topping the charts for goals scored between 6 and 18 yards.
Take their final-day win over Norwich. While Hull had only eight shots in the game, all eight were from very central areas inside the box, and only two were off target. This is McBurnie’s shot map – five shots, all on target:
They also won 3-1 at The Den in September, when Kyle Joseph converted two low crosses and Femi Azeez was sent off (the referee from that game, Gavin Ward, is also taking the first leg of their play-off encounter). Hull won’t fear the occasion.
