Very specific predictions for the League Two play-offs
Ahead of today's League Two double header, Sam Parry analyses how each team will score – and who'll make it to Wembley.
MINI LEAGUE
First leg: Sunday 10th May, 3pm — Blundell Park
Second leg: Friday 15th May, 7.15pm — Peninsula Stadium
HEAD TO HEAD
4th Oct: Salford 0-2 Grimsby
3rd Mar: Grimsby 3-1 Salford
No team have secured more points in the second half of the season than Grimsby (47). Chalk some of that up to how they’ve consistently fashioned chances from close range. One in seven of their total goals – and one in three scored by their four leading scorers, Jaze Kabia, Kieran Green, Charles Vernam and Andy Cook – have come from inside the six-yard box. No side has scored more from such close range.
The question, better put, might be: “How won’t they score?” Given they’ve outscored opponents by 2:1 over their last 23 games, it seems inconceivable that, over two legs, Grimsby’s box-flooding waves won’t crash in at least a couple of goals. The most likely? It has to be Kabia, who has grabbed 9 goals in 10 games.
Salford will look to squeeze both ties, break the flow and capitalise on set-pieces.
Part of me didn’t want to write that. But sometimes a trend is so compelling, you cannot diverge from its path. For Salford, it is difficult to ignore the plain reality that one in every four goals they score comes from a set-piece, rising to one in three across their last 10 games. Still, sometimes it pays to stare logic in the face and say: boo. So how about a fruity pick?
Having taken 40 shots this season, Rosaire Longelo can count himself unfortunate not to have doubled, trebled or even quadrupled his return of a solitary goal. Some 62% of his shots have come in his last 17 matches, suggesting there’s plenty of shot hunger (getting on for two shots per game), if too little output. Cutting onto his favoured left foot, Longelo has hit the post twice and forced several excellent saves. Grimsby left-back Reece Staunton likes to get up there, which could leave a gap.
The reason I bring up the admittedly unlikely prospect of a Longelo Shot, if you will, is that Salford may need a bit of magic to progress.
While Grimsby find many routes to goal, Salford go direct. In fact, they have completed the most direct attacks this season: 16 more than long-ball champs Bromley, but with a return of 7 goals compared with Bromley’s 12. It’s not a strategy that is going to have Mariners running scared. From inside their own half, Salford will happily knock it long, and whether they win or lose the second ball, the worst-case scenario will be that Grimsby simply have to start again. That could be frustrating. Equally, there could be no frustration at all; hence, magic needed.
What has repeatedly rescued Karl Robinson’s side this season, on top of set-piece goals, is their 11 strikes (18% of total goals) from outside the box – a figure that no side in the division can better.
Well, almost no side.
Grimsby can match it. But whereas Salford often survive on moments, the Mariners arrive with an attack overflowing with chances in the here and now. Yes, they had a rough patch in October and November. But they have scored 2.4 goals per game across their last 10 matches, including 14 goals in their last five at home. Salford, by contrast, averages just 1.1 over the same span.
The Mariners are fishing in different waters entirely, and I think they just might blow Salford out of theirs.
Jaze Kabia (Grimsby), No scorer (Salford)
Prediction: Grimsby to progress 3-0 on aggregate
First leg: Sunday 10th May, 6pm — SMH Group Stadium
Second leg: Friday 15th May, 8pm — Meadow Lane
HEAD TO HEAD
26th Dec: Chesterfield 2-0 Notts County
14th Mar: Notts County 2-3 Chesterfield
As anyone who played FIFA in the halcyon days of the 2010s can attest, the deep dribble into the box followed by a cut-back is incredibly difficult to stop. If I were to play as a League Two team on FIFA, I know who I’d be picking.
Chesterfield are at their best when they can isolate opposition full-backs and drive to the byline before pulling the ball back across goal. Dilan Markanday and Armando Dobra are the pair to watch. Among players with more than 2,000 League Two minutes in 2025/26, both rank inside the division’s top 10 for turning carries into shots.
The Spireites are patient in possession. They’re happy to circulate the ball until one of their premium dribblers receives it 1-v-1. Once isolated, either Markanday or Dobra is the favourite to beat his man before driving towards goal or waiting for an overlapping run, most likely from Lewis Gordon.
The final delivery tends to come from inside the box; it is part cross, part pass. It relies less on static forwards wrestling centre-backs and more on runners either attacking space early or arriving late beyond their marker. Drilled cut-backs and low balls that are flashed across the six-yard box tend to generate high-quality chances, and Chesterfield are very, very good at creating them.
What of the tactical match-up?
Unless we see a tweak, the clash between County’s 3-4-2-1 and Chesterfield’s 4-2-3-1 surely gives the Spireites a slight advantage. Martin Paterson simply cannot allow Jodi Jones (#10) to vacate spaces for Markanday (#24), Mandeville (#7) and Bonis (#10) to exploit.
As a result, Chesterfield will pin Jones deeper than Notts would ideally like, which matters because no League Two side favours left-sided attacks more heavily than County (39%). I can see the game becoming one of two sides that are both happiest when shuffling the ball around a horseshoe — LB - CB - CM - CB - RB — and Chesterfield seems to me the more likely to fashion chances through their wide players if that is the case.
It’s marginal stuff, though.
Notts County are also patient in possession. They are one of two sides in the league to have made more than 20,000 passes. The other is Chesterfield, and the crucial difference here is that a much bigger proportion of Notts County’s passes occur in the first two-thirds, whilst Chesterfield keep more possession (10% or 2,000 passes more) in the final third.
All of that is to say that County’s best opportunities are unlikely to come from breaking down a settled defence. With a quality central operator in Tom Iorpenda, a ball snapped into Alassana Jatta may offer them their clearest route to goal if Chesterfield commit one body too many forward.
But my bigger vibes-based take is around a late-game route to goal after a 0-0 first half.
Admittedly, it’s dependent on a few ‘if’s, but the thesis is as follows:
Notts County have scored the 3rd-most goals from counter attacks;
7 of the last 30 shots conceded by Chesterfield have been fast breaks;
The longer the game is level, the more likely I think it is that County score from this method;
Tyrese Hall has come on as a sub in his last 8 County appearances;
Hall has scored 7 goals from 4.16 xG, and four of those were off the bench;
Two of them have come from counter-attacks;
So, Tyrese Hall to score late on the break is the vibesy take.
Just more than 0.5 goals per game would be nice tbh