7 new managers - how many are bouncing?
Which managers are eating at Not The Top Table this week?
Well, hello.
Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇
Words: Sam Parry
Awards season is over, but the judgement never stops. Looking at you, new managers of the EFL.
Of course, it is not always sensible to judge a manager purely on a short run of games. That said, when a new manager arrives in March, it is usually because the higher-ups, and often the fans, believe the previous regime was falling short and thus, that the new guy can or should deliver better.
Today’s missive is less about the managers themselves and more about the decision to sack and to hire. The key question is simple: are the new managers having the desired effect?
🔗 Championship
Watford — Ed Still
Record: P6 W2 D2 L2 (PPG 1.33)
Season PPG: 1.41 (🔻 -0.08)
Watford skew the framing slightly. It’s hard to define a “desired effect” at a club that changes managers so frequently. The drop in PPG is marginal and the sample’s small.
There is, however, a modest improvement in chance creation. Watford are averaging 1.6 xG per 90 over the last five compared to 1.30 across the season. The issue’s familiar. If you don’t convert those chances, the gains don’t translate into results.
Leicester City — Gary Rowett
Record: P6 W1 D3 L2 (PPG 1.00)
Season PPG: 1.16 (🔻 -0.16)
The Rowett Defence. It goes something like this: he’s a manager with deep knowledge of the Championship and experience of the situation (a relegation fight). That’s exactly how the Foxes chairman put it.
So far, the Rowett defence (lowercase) hasn’t held up. Nine goals conceded in six games is problematic enough, but paired with an attack generating just 0.64 xG per game, it becomes unsustainable. It also raises a broader question about fit. This squad’s built around attacking players who should be producing more.
Blackburn Rovers — Michael O’Neill
Record: P7 W3 D1 L3 (PPG 1.43)
Season PPG: 1.11 (🟢 +0.32)
A more positive picture here. O’Neill’s delivered an uplift in both results and performances.
How his time is split between Blackburn and Northern Ireland over the next few weeks remains unclear, but the early signs are encouraging. This is the desired effect, at least in the short term, is being rendered in points and performances.
🔗 League One
Wigan Athletic — Gary Caldwell
Record: P6 W3 D1 L2 (PPG 1.67)
Season PPG: 1.14 (🔥 +0.53)
Wigan needed points quickly after a sharp decline. Caldwell’s delivered that. (So far).
However, the underlying numbers are less emphatic. Wigan’s xG share shows only slight improvement, suggesting results may be running ahead of process — “may” being the key word there.
Context matters. The fixture list’s been tough: Luton, Stockport, Huddersfield, Blackpool, Plymouth Argyle and Bradford represent 5 proper play-off contenders. For now, that tempers the data slightly. A kinder run-in should give a clearer read.
Huddersfield Town — Liam Manning
Record: P10 W5 D2 L3 (PPG 1.70)
Season PPG: 1.51 (🟢 +0.19)
A more nuanced case. Three wins at the start were followed by a slower run, but the defensive improvement is clear.
Over the last five games, Huddersfield’s xGA is 0.67 per 90, second only to Bradford. Across ten games, they rank fourth in the league by the same metric. That’s a tangible step forward.
What stands out is the drop in attacking output. Their xG sits at 0.96 over five games and 0.94 over ten. This is process. It is deliberate rather than incidental. It’s simply what Manning does.
The result is low margin football. The xG Total in their games is 1.63 over five games and 1.76 over ten, both the lowest in the division. Fine margins will define outcomes, and how that style’s received over time is worth monitoring.
🔗 League Two
Fleetwood Town — Matt Lawlor
Record: P11 W4 D5 L2 (PPG 1.55)
Season PPG: 1.38 (🟢 +0.17)
Rumours have it that Fleetwood Matt’s underlying numbers as a new boss are pretty solid. Maybe that played into the owner’s thinking in handing Lawlor the permanent post?
Across both the five- and ten-game tables, they profile as a play-off-level side. Defensively, there’s been a slight improvement, though the fixture run’s been relatively kind.
Now, Lawlor’s achieved the primary objective of securing safety early and giving supporters a bit of a lift. But the next question is whether this level can be sustained against stronger opposition, or whether performance reverts closer to the season baseline; and more to the point, whether that makes the transition from interim into permanent manager a smart call or not.
Shrewsbury Town — Gavin Cowan
Record: P10 W6 D1 L3 (PPG 1.90)
Season PPG: 1.11 (🔥 +0.79)
Clearly, Cowan’s had the most dramatic impact of the group. Shrewsbury, who were tanking, are hitting promotion-level form right now.
Interestingly, their underlying numbers tell a slightly different story. Compared to Fleetwood, who have a similar xG Total over ten games, Shrewsbury’s results appear more volatile.
If you’re a fan, you don’t care one jot. The task was survival, and Cowan has accelerated them away from a scrap in the foothills of the pyramid and towards a well-earned bit of R&R on the beach.
Worth pointing out though that goalkeeper Matthew Cox has been busy, and while Shrews are a sharper, slicker and more confident attacking side, the defensive numbers still flash a warning. There’s a summer to tidy that up.
Wigan barrow relegated is all I’m dreaming about