It’s true, I think, that it sometimes looks and feels ‘impotent’ partly because it allows opposition teams to get into their shape and put a lot of bodies between the ball and the goal which leads to lots of shots being blocked and/or taken under a lot of pressure rather than ‘clear shots’ at goal. I think fan get as annoyed about squandered chances than they do a lack of chance creation/shots, which to me is a much greater crime!
It’s also worth pointing out that the high possession approach is as much about defending as it is about attacking, but that gets ignore because people don’t consider the defensive impact that controlling the ball/territory has, they mainly see playing style as an attacking function.
You’ve seen yourself how much Birmingham are suffocating teams. It’s true that the goals conceded numbers isn’t incredible right now, but surely you see that outside of SPs and Peacock Farrell howlers, teams are finding it almost impossible to create chances against Birmingham. In my opinion that’s a consequence of the approach, not because Birmingham’s individual defenders are playing out their skin. If Birmingham played with greater speed and ‘chaos’, they would increase the chances of being caught out defensively.
I do think it’s also worth pointing out that 5 of the top 7 Champ teams for possession are in the top 6 for xG. In L1, 5 of the top 7 teams for possession are in the top 6 for xG. In L2, 4 of the top 7 for possession are in the top 7 for xG. I don’t think it is really true to suggest this sort of football produces ‘so little in the final third’.
I don’t think high possession play is a necessity but I do think the discourse around it sometimes misses key aspects. At the same time, if fans really hate a certain style and find it boring, I do think it can be problematic for managers to ignore those feelings - having buy in (or not) from fans is important!
Thanks for the longer comment. Yes we saw in the second half on Saturday that more chaos and less control leaves us much more vulnerable.
I watched your breakdown of us last week and our very low xg against demonstrates your point about the defensive virtues of having so much control and possession. But for team with the highest possession to be not even in the top 6 for xg is a bit concerning even if we're scoring lots through long range shots.
The fans are mostly on board, no Leicester style discontent yet, but if there are more repeats of Saturday then maybe there will be a bit more concern about chance creation in open play.
I made the Swansea comparison explicitly because of Davies coaching experience and the rumours are they approached him last year about the manager's position. I was wondering if there's something about that style compared to other high possession approaches that makes it a bit more impotent?
I'd like to read something on TSW and its disciples. Huge amounts of possession but low non penalty XG sounds familiar to this Birmingham supporter. Why is this sort of football producing so little in the final third (there's that word again!)?
A slightly longer response, from
Ali:
It’s true, I think, that it sometimes looks and feels ‘impotent’ partly because it allows opposition teams to get into their shape and put a lot of bodies between the ball and the goal which leads to lots of shots being blocked and/or taken under a lot of pressure rather than ‘clear shots’ at goal. I think fan get as annoyed about squandered chances than they do a lack of chance creation/shots, which to me is a much greater crime!
It’s also worth pointing out that the high possession approach is as much about defending as it is about attacking, but that gets ignore because people don’t consider the defensive impact that controlling the ball/territory has, they mainly see playing style as an attacking function.
You’ve seen yourself how much Birmingham are suffocating teams. It’s true that the goals conceded numbers isn’t incredible right now, but surely you see that outside of SPs and Peacock Farrell howlers, teams are finding it almost impossible to create chances against Birmingham. In my opinion that’s a consequence of the approach, not because Birmingham’s individual defenders are playing out their skin. If Birmingham played with greater speed and ‘chaos’, they would increase the chances of being caught out defensively.
I do think it’s also worth pointing out that 5 of the top 7 Champ teams for possession are in the top 6 for xG. In L1, 5 of the top 7 teams for possession are in the top 6 for xG. In L2, 4 of the top 7 for possession are in the top 7 for xG. I don’t think it is really true to suggest this sort of football produces ‘so little in the final third’.
I don’t think high possession play is a necessity but I do think the discourse around it sometimes misses key aspects. At the same time, if fans really hate a certain style and find it boring, I do think it can be problematic for managers to ignore those feelings - having buy in (or not) from fans is important!
Thanks for the longer comment. Yes we saw in the second half on Saturday that more chaos and less control leaves us much more vulnerable.
I watched your breakdown of us last week and our very low xg against demonstrates your point about the defensive virtues of having so much control and possession. But for team with the highest possession to be not even in the top 6 for xg is a bit concerning even if we're scoring lots through long range shots.
The fans are mostly on board, no Leicester style discontent yet, but if there are more repeats of Saturday then maybe there will be a bit more concern about chance creation in open play.
I made the Swansea comparison explicitly because of Davies coaching experience and the rumours are they approached him last year about the manager's position. I was wondering if there's something about that style compared to other high possession approaches that makes it a bit more impotent?
I'd like to read something on TSW and its disciples. Huge amounts of possession but low non penalty XG sounds familiar to this Birmingham supporter. Why is this sort of football producing so little in the final third (there's that word again!)?
Huw wrote a piece on that topic just two weeks ago! https://open.substack.com/pub/ntt20/p/is-possession-overrated?r=249v8l&utm_medium=ios
Full article paid subscribers only. Seems to talk more about the inverse though, teams that don't have much possession but lots of threat?
Fair point - I've written a longer response direct to your initial comment in a separate comment.