Fantastic this Sam. As a Tigers season ticket holder and someone that bores his mates with exG this has explained it and the interlationship with variance and/or luck, and logic, brilliantly
Excellent deep dive on the Lethal Trio overperformance. The distinction between luck and sustained skill matters more in playoffs where sample sizes are tiny. I'd add that Hull's high shot-on-target ratio (6th in league despite taking 6th-fewest shots) suggests process not just outcomes. The real risk isnt regression to mean but injury to any of those three strikers, which could expose the depth issue you hinted at.
Also it's worth considering both McBurnie and Gelhardt have missed chunks through injury, and the others have stepped up in their absence.
Fantastic this Sam. As a Tigers season ticket holder and someone that bores his mates with exG this has explained it and the interlationship with variance and/or luck, and logic, brilliantly
Excellent deep dive on the Lethal Trio overperformance. The distinction between luck and sustained skill matters more in playoffs where sample sizes are tiny. I'd add that Hull's high shot-on-target ratio (6th in league despite taking 6th-fewest shots) suggests process not just outcomes. The real risk isnt regression to mean but injury to any of those three strikers, which could expose the depth issue you hinted at.
Cheers!
"Process not just outcomes." That's it in a nutshell. Creating fewer but better chances is exactly that.