NTT20.COM predicts: League One

There's one place up for grabs in each race – who will take the remaining spots in the bids for automatic promotion, play-offs and survival?

Welcome to another episode of NTT20.COM predicts. Last week, we expressed doubts about pretty much every single League Two promotion-chaser except Port Vale, and every single League Two promotion-chaser except Port Vale and Colchester failed to win. That’s right: Swindon 5-4 Bradford went exactly how we predicted. Sort of.

Now we’re focusing on the tasty trio of tussles up and down League One. We analyse whether it’ll be Burton or Bristol Rovers who suffer the drop, and make our case for and against the five teams battling for a single play-off place. And Birmingham will go up as champions (no prediction there, just maths), but who will join them in the top two? Our answer may surprise you…

Read on, and tell us in the comments why we’re wrong.

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It’s not a two-horse race for 2nd place…

Huw Davies

There are four teams fighting for 2nd, and Wrexham and Wycombe look vulnerable.

The latter’s results have improved lately, but each win is so, so tight and they’re having to f**king die for three points. In the last fortnight, playing Sat-Tues-Sat-Tues-Sat, they’ve won three games 1-0, lost one 1-0 and drawn one 0-0. They had 35% possession at Huddersfield, then laboured into stoppage time to beat Stevenage a few days later. It’s tiring for a team. On Good Friday they go to Bolton, who are by no means a great side but do keep the ball (averaging 64% possession over the last eight matches) and carry an attacking threat (registering 5.5 xG across their last two games). Even if Wycombe win at the Toughsheet, it’s likely to be exhausting.

Then who’s coming to dinner on Easter Monday? Only Charlton bloody Athletic, who literally have ‘Athletic’ in their name. Nathan Jones’ Charlton are not a nice opponent in this scenario – and nor are playoff-chasing Leyton Orient nor autos-chasing Stockport in Wycombe’s two remaining fixtures after that. If Mike Dodds & Co. finish in the top two, God knows they’ll have earned it.