The Pinsticker's Guide to the League One Promotion Run-in
All of the details you need to know about the runners and riders for the third tier's top six places
A promotion contender by any other name would smell as sweet…
Welcome to the Pinsticker’s Guide to the League One Promotion Run-in, which follows our dive into the Championship last week.
In this series, we purely play the numbers game. Assumptions are dismissed as we look at each club’s form, fixture difficulty, home/away records, points return and underlying performance data, both recently and across the whole campaign. Et voila: a predicted final table.
But first, here’s the current one:
I have one piece of advice in reading what follows. Ignore team names. They install in us so many subconscious biases based on history, ‘size’ and the idea of each club having a natural station, which they can’t leave because it just feels… wrong.
Plymouth Argyle weren’t supposed to win this division in 2022/23, let alone with 101 points. Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday were with them in the top three all season, and because they ‘belong’ in the top two tiers, they belonged in the top two of League One that year. Right? A survey of generic English football fans today might even reveal that the majority believe Ipswich did win the title.
But no, it was Argyle alone who became centurions, continuing to defy expectations and assumptions until there was no road left to run. They played like champions. They deserved to be champions. They were champions.
The name of a club means nothing. Performances are what matter. Keep that in mind as we analyse each promotion candidate in this 2025/26 League One campaign…
How to read this:
FORM 📈 — Where the team is right now
Season PPG (points per game), as well as separate home and away PPG, shows the team’s overall pace; Last 10 PPG shows current momentum; and the xG trend (‘Season xG Share → 10-game’) hints at whether performances are improving or dipping.
RUN-IN 🗓️ — How tough the finish looks
Games remaining, home vs away split, and the average PPG of remaining opponents (home or away, depending on where the fixture will take place) show whether the schedule is kind or brutal compared with the rest of the league.
TARGETS 🎯 — The race from here
The key numbers are the PPG needed from now to hit two benchmarks: 70 points, which looks likely to be enough for a top-six finish this season, and 90 points for automatic promotion.
PROJECTION 🔮 — The forecast explained
This isn’t just current PPG carried forward – it’s a weighted forecast blending season form, recent form, home vs away form, underlying xG performance and fixture difficulty, combined to estimate the club’s likeliest final points total if current trends continue. N.B. It’s a bit of fun, not an exhaustive prediction.
Top of the tree uninterrupted for three months, Cardiff are nonetheless just a point ahead of Lincoln now, despite the Bluebirds’ defeat in Plymouth last week being their first since Christmas. They did lose that game 5-2, and there is perhaps a little to worry about in a defence that’s leaking more chances than it had been.
Still, it’d take something truly remarkable for Cardiff to fall out of the automatic places altogether. All eyes on the title, and 1st v 2nd in a televised lunchtime kick-off next week…
FORM 📈
Season PPG: 2.09
Home PPG: 2.53
Away PPG: 1.63
Last 10 PPG: 2.10
Season xG Share → 10-game: 57% → 54%
RUN-IN 🗓️
Games remaining: 13 (6H / 7A)
Opponent strength: 1.37 avg PPG
Fixtures: harder than 60% of the league
TARGETS 🎯
0.08 PPG to reach 70
1.62 PPG to reach 90
PROJECTION 🔮
2nd - 96.5 points (2.12 PPG required)
🚩 Fixture Flag: Even with 11 games to follow it, Cardiff’s meeting with Lincoln on 7th March could well decide the title race. Brian Barry-Murphy’s men have home advantage, but Lincoln beat them 2-1 in December and gave up just a single attempt on goal after retaking the lead in the 67th minute.
The Imps have accelerated just as other runners slowed their pace. They last lost a league game in November; since then, they’ve taken 40 points from 16 matches. That’s 2.5 points per game across a third of a season. Their performance data, too, is only getting better.
Michael Skubala & Co. may have already done enough to make a formality of what would be a stunning promotion to the Championship – one of the most impressive we’ll have ever seen. Even a 10-point lead can evaporate before May, however, so standards must remain high, especially in visits to four of the current top eight.
FORM 📈
Season PPG: 2.06
Home PPG: 2.35
Away PPG: 1.75
Last 10 PPG: 2.40
Season xG Share → 10-game: 55% → 64%
RUN-IN 🗓️
Games remaining: 13 (6H / 7A)
Opponent strength: 1.40 avg PPG
Fixtures: harder than 73% of the league
TARGETS 🎯
0.15 PPG to reach 70
1.69 PPG to reach 90
PROJECTION 🔮
1st - 98.2 points (2.33 PPG required)
🚩 Fixture Flag: The tough element of Lincoln’s schedule will be playing away at not just the league’s better teams, but those who could be called ‘home specialists’ – Cardiff (who average 2.53 PPG at home), Exeter (1.67), Huddersfield (2.06), Reading (1.76) and Stevenage (2.00).
Three consecutive draws have provided a microcosm of Bolton’s frustrating season – they’ve drawn 13 matches, more than any other team – and given them a 10-point margin to make up, with one fewer fixture than their rivals to do it in.
