The project, the prodigy and the proven promotion-winner: who’s Premier League bound?

Southampton, Leicester and Leeds have taken three different paths with their managerial hires – and the opening weekend confirmed what we can expect.

Aug 09, 2023

Ali Maxwell

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The captain goes down with his ship. He doesn’t come back up with it.

Over the past four summers, every club coming down from the Premier League has hired a new manager for their Championship campaign, with Norwich – twice – the only exception. Ten appointments, one shared objective: an immediate Premier League return. But just two have succeeded. Marco Silva was the first in a decade to achieve that precious promotion in his first season, before Vincent Kompany planted his flash trainers in Silva’s footsteps.

If we go back a little further (try stopping us), we see that a new broom rarely sweeps all before it. In the last 20 seasons, 21 managers have been tasked with taking a team straight back into the top tier, and only four have done it: Kompany at Burnley, Roberto Di Matteo at West Bromwich Albion and, in Fulham’s Silva and West Ham’s Sam Allardyce, two Premier League gaffers dipping their toes into cool Championship waters for a season. Meanwhile, ten clubs who stood by their man were rewarded with re-promotion.

But still clubs roll the dice. Back in 2007, Sheffield United were the first relegated side in six years to hand the keys to a new man: Bryan Robson. Now, for the sixth year in seven, at least two of the three relegated Premier League sides have jettisoned their boss over the summer. Increasingly, they’re temporary firefighters burnt alive in the Premier League furnace. RIP, Big Sam. Go well, Ruben Selles. See you in September, Dean Smith.

OK, but we’re used to this by now. Clubs sack managers. Good spot, well done. Glad I subscribed. Why is 2023 special?

Because there are three modern methods for a big EFL club making a managerial appointment and we’re going to see which one works. Thanks to Leeds, Leicester and Southampton each taking a different approach by hiring Daniel Farke, Enzo Maresca and Russell Martin, we have a real-time case study. Exciting!

Like his appointment, Maresca’s tactical plan is high risk, high reward

Method A: Bring in a Proven Premier League Promotion-winner

That’s right: the old PPLP. This year, it’s Leeds who’ve gone for the guy who ‘guarantees promotion’ (you wonder why more clubs don’t do it). Farke is a good coach and a demanding one. He’s content to manage upwards as well as down, criticising the club’s contract mistakes as early as his first pre-season match in charge.

Yet the PPLP method hasn’t worked all that often in the past. Take Sheffield United hiring Slavisa Jokanovic in 2021. With two promotions under his belt and a Premier League squad in his pocket, it was an appointment that couldn’t fail. Then it did. His tactics didn’t suit the players, fans felt he didn’t connect with the club, and nobody was having a good time. He was fired in November.

There’s no such thing as a plug-and-play manager (though Neil Warnock may be the cheat code). Other relegated clubs to bring in a PPLP include Wigan with Owen Coyle in 2013, Birmingham with Chris Hughton in 2011 and Sheffield United again, hiring Robson in 2007. Results varied – Blades sacked their new man; Birmingham reached the play-offs; Wigan did both – but there’s a common theme: no promotion. The sole PPLP success over the past two decades was Allardyce at West Ham, and he was an established top-flight manager by then.

Farke and Leeds could buck that trend. He has the cachet; they have the cash. But we have said this before.

Method B: Put your faith in the Football League

Unlike the PPLP, the OTU (On-The-Up) manager hasn’t won promotion at this level, but their career is building towards it and you, yes YOU, could be the club they’re managing when it happens. Put it this way: unless things go incredibly badly or incredibly well, Michael Duff will be approached by a relegated club next summer.

These bosses are on a rising trajectory through the Football League, or they may have just impressed in the previous season, – think of West Bromwich Albion taking Val Ismael from Barnsley, or Watford hiring Rob Edwards from Forest Green. Tumbling from the top flight, the club trust their precious stars with a coach who was forged in the fires of below…

…and they regret it almost immediately. Some of them, anyway. It may be the club to blame (Watford sacking Edwards) or it may be down to results (Stoke sacking Gary Rowett), but either way it doesn’t last, and the OTU can often be prematurely branded with labels never given to the PPLP. ‘Not up to the level’. ‘Out of his depth’. ‘Who?’

This trust exercise can work, however. Albion took on Roberto Di Matteo in 2009 after his good work with MK Dons and he boinged the Baggies back up. (Of course, that turned RDM into a Proven Premier League Promotion-winner, luring Aston Villa into the trap years later.) In 2010, promotion wasn’t the goal for financially flatulent Portsmouth and Hull, but each recruited OTUs with success: Steve Cotterill and Nigel Pearson steadied their sinking ships before jumping to more sailworthy ones.

After four years with MK Dons and Swansea, will Russell Martin be Southampton’s saviour or another sacrifice at the altar of Big Club Ego? It depends on how much Saints trust the process. At least there’s no great clash of styles, unlike West Brom assuming Ismael could make their squad of thirtysomethings press like rabid dogs.

Method C: Hitch your wagon to the Next Big Thing

The NBT appointment is new but becoming very common, as clubs up and down the pyramid try to tap up top talent from Premier League coaching stables. And these stables have nothing but thoroughbreds: Kieran McKenna, Michael Carrick, Neil Wood… some of them aren’t even from Manchester United. These glamorous debutants can’t help but succeed, from Jody Morris to Kolo Toure.

All right, it’s hit and miss. You’re taking a punt on something as yet unformed, like a proud parent betting that their 10-year-old plays for England one day. We never hear of the thousands who lost their stake, do we? But if it pays off, it really pays off.

Leicester hope Enzo Maresca is the real deal. The model may be Kompany, though there are crucial differences: the Belgian had managed Anderlecht for two years, rather than Parma for six months. But Maresca’s experience of coaching Manchester City players does lend him authority, as he teaches his Leicester charges a radical new approach that – like his appointment – is high risk, high reward.

And we saw that on opening weekend.

Watching Southampton probe and probe again was like watching a demolition expert examine a condemned wall

The first day back at school taught us a few lessons, and not just, “It’s your own time you’re wasting”. From the first minute to the 100th, our trio of humbled heavyweights showed how they intend to attack this division.

Southampton went full Russell Martin in Russell Martin’s first game, completing just shy of a thousand passes. His players understood the brief. With three weeks of transfer time remaining for these three sides, Southampton’s squad looked the closest to being complete.

Did Saints create enough in the game? No, possibly not. But when Sheffield Wednesday equalised from a corner, a twist that nobody could’ve seen coming, Martin’s men didn’t panic. Their winner came through a patient passing move involving most of the team. Having excellent players for the level helped, as it always does, and James Ward-Prowse set up Che Adams expertly. Even so, watching Southampton probe and probe some more was like watching a demolition expert examine a condemned wall, looking for the vulnerable hollow portion. Poke, poke, poke. Ah – there it is. Tap, tap, tap. Breakthrough.

Farke has inherited an unbalanced squad at Leeds, and it showed against a resolute Cardiff. United’s defence looked especially flimsy: the maverick positions taken up by ‘right-back’ Luke Ayling showed that, like Ayling himself, the injured Cody Drameh can’t come back quickly enough.

But, trailing 2-0 and then 2-1, Farke’s Leeds pushed higher and higher with the ball until the pressure told. The German’s 4-2-vibes setup fulfilled its purpose. Attacking with intensity, Leeds took 14 shots from inside the box in the second half and their sheer relentlessness made the stoppage-time equaliser feel inevitable, even if it required a deflection and an excellent finish from Crysencio Summerville. Turning a defeat into a draw is what proven promotion-winners do.

Given his complex intentions, Maresca needed his squad ready soonest of all. It isn’t. Yet the tactical masterplan waits for no man.

Taking on Coventry, where every player knows their job, Leicester’s bold new 3-box-3 formation (it’s so hot right now) featured anchorman Wilfred Ndidi playing behind the striker, and Kasey McAteer – who was on loan in League Two last season – on the right wing. Their high line was also exploited time and time again, with Wout Faes constantly having to cover the vacant right-back position. Cov inevitably scored and could, woulda, shoulda doubled their lead, but for the profligacy shown by Matt Godden-do-better-there. Leicester’s tight interplay in central attacking areas eventually paid off, as Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall duly hauled them to three points.

Ultimately, each fallen giant conceded either the first or second goal – or both, in Leeds’ case – and each responded to the setback in their own, telling ways. In each case, too, individual brilliance played its part.

So, what next for these three, taking divergent paths to the same destination? Each approach has its advantages. Leicester have gambled on a manager with a potentially high ceiling, who suits a technically gifted squad… but he represents the biggest risk. Leeds have made the ‘safe’ appointment, hiring the guy who won two Championship titles with Norwich… but getting in ‘the guaranteed winner’ has rarely paid off for teams in their position before, and Farke’s Premier League record also brings doubt about his lifespan at Leeds. Southampton have rewarded the progress and promise shown by Martin – a project manager, if you will – by handing him a talented young squad… but can he actually win enough games?

We don’t know yet who will take their new club back into the Premier League: the project, the prodigy or the proven promotion-winner. We’ve already seen, though, how each one plans to do it. Southampton have the headstart. Leeds have the best map reader. But Leicester may have the rocket packs.