“Events” applies just as neatly to football, with one key difference: teams usually have more control over the events themselves.
Which is why it’s cockle-warming to see Portsmouth getting a return on their investment in John Mousinho stock. After taking just five points from a 10-game spell late last year, events could easily have conspired against him.
Instead of a fire and hire, Pompey have picked up eight points from their last five games - and 16 from the last 10. A 63.8% xG Ratio over five games is a little noisy, inflated by the 3-0 win over West Brom (2.57 xG to 0.09). But they’ve earned the right to a bit of noise.
January additions have played their part too. Sometimes those are the events a team needs (see: Ebou Adams, Millenic Alli).
🤏 MADLY, DEEPLY, VARIANCE: QPR + Oxford
Over the last five games, QPR (8 points) and Oxford (5) have been operating on the finest of margins — though variance has treated them a little differently.
Oxford have taken 44 shots to their opponents’ 63 in that spell, yet still posted a positive share of the total xG. The underlying numbers have improved, but their PPG is about the same as it’s been all season.
QPR’s story is slightly different. They’ve outshot opponents 62 to 45, including conceding just nine shots against Coventry, and also hold a positive xG share. That’s translated into eight points, a 1.6 PPG return that tops their season average of 1.43.
As one of the Championship’s most consistent “low-margin” teams (their season-long xG total is 2.29 per game, with a 51.6% share), QPR’s uptick looks less like a stylistic shift and more like variance dealing its hand.
Doncaster have been an outlier all season, struggling to score good chances while gifting cheap goals at the other end. Their horrendous run of 6 points from 16 games between 12 September and 31 December is another case of dicey form being met without a dice roll.
Over the last five games, only Argyle and Bolton boast a better xG Ratio (66.9%), with Grant McCann’s side returning W2 D2 L1. Add Elliot Lee from Wrexham on deadline day and I reckon that extra quality up top could help them to keep on the right side of the margins.
🥧 HUNGRY: Wigan
Less pie barm. More pure barmy.
Wigan’s xG Ratio across their last five sits at just 26.8%, a steep drop from their season average of 53.5%. What’s striking isn’t a flood of chances conceded, but a near-total collapse in chance creation: just 0.61 xG per game across that run.
The caveat? The opposition: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 9th and 22nd. One to keep an eye on over the next five.
🆙 Manning up: Huddersfield Town
A couple of weeks ago, we noted that Huddersfield under Lee Grant weren’t posting horrific numbers. What’s changed since?
The Terriers have won three from three under Manning while posting numbers broadly in line with Grant’s tenure, including taking a smaller share of the xG in two of those games. What is notable is the opposition. Under Grant, Huddersfield had beaten just one current top-eight side. Under Manning, they’ve beaten 5th, 8th and 12th already.
Notts County have posted a 75% share of the xG across that run, and it hasn’t come from wild arrow-firing either. They’ve kept xGA down to just 0.58 per game, returning four wins and a single defeat, away at Accrington Stanley.
Sustain that, and could it be an arrow on the autos?
With Bristol Rovers making signings of the “liquid Evans” variety and Barrow showing signs of life, it’s starting to feel safe to say it’s two from three for the drop.
Cheltenham have just three points from their last five (W1 L4), yet the performances tell a different story. They’re posting their best expected goals tallies of the season, with a clear uptick in xG share across both five- and ten-game spells.
Great work