Who's eating at the Relegation Table? #006
It's tough out there in the relegation scrap...
Well, hello.
Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇
This week we’re focusing on relegation candidates.
Words: Sam Parry
The way teams are feeding on the relegation scraps look wildly different depending on the division. In the Championship, almost everyone down there has a pulse — six of the bottom seven have enough quality to mount something of a run. League One is pure chaos, where the maths changes by the week. And in League Two, those fighting relegation are so much poorer than the rest of the league, writing off the current bottom clubs already feels premature.
🔗 Championship
Let’s start with the three relegation spots and the seven most likely candidates.
There are five teams entering the final third of the season with less than a point per game over their last ten matches: Sheffield Wednesday (0.1), West Brom (0.6), Leicester (0.7), Oxford (0.9) and Blackburn (0.9). Give ‘em a name: The Likely Lads.
Of the Likely Lads, the Owls already look gone. Of the remaining four, only West Brom have a positive 10-game xG Ratio at 53.2 percent. However, over the last five games under Eric Ramsay, who is yet to win, that figure drops to 41.7 percent. Ouch.
It has been clear all season that Oxford are struggling and, as alluded to in George’s excellent piece last week, relegation feels built into their structural reality. Survival is unlikely to be predicted by the numbers but variance could show in results.
Per the comparison table above, things look rough for Leicester. Their xGA has been climbing steadily across the season and the recent fixtures do not soften the picture. Wrexham (D), Oxford (L), Charlton (L), Birmingham (L) and Saints, where a 3-0 lead still ended in defeat, suggest the issue runs deeper than opposition strength.
Blackburn are harder to read. They have beaten QPR and Sheffield Wednesday in two of their last three. For much of the season their underlying numbers were solid before injuries pulled them into a rut. With three of the top ten up next and Michael O’Neill now in place, they are worth monitoring closely.
Of course, what becomes of the Likely Lads will swing on small pockets of results. Nobody understands that better than Portsmouth. Even in their 1-0 defeat to Sheffield United, the performance showed they are limiting chances and creating at a higher level than the rest. With 15 games left, their finishing remains the big question.
That leaves Norwich and Charlton. Both have put together useful runs. Tweaks to system and style has elevated Norwich to around the level they should’ve been all season. Maybe it’s a little noisy, but when no Championship side has more than their 21 points from the last ten games, you have to say they look well placed for survival.
Charlton are more concerning. Nathan Jones’ side have the second worst season-long xG Ratio in the division. Having only lost four times at home, it’s clear their season hinges on games at the Valley.
🚨 HUGE FOR BOTH KLAXON:
Portsmouth vs Charlton (tonight)
🔗 League One
With a densely packed bottom end, our xG tables should indicate which teams have a process worth trusting and which are simply sinking.
Let’s call them The Eight Watchers.
Going at under 1.00 PPG across the last ten are Burton (0.8), Port Vale (0.8), Leyton Orient (0.8), Northampton (0.7), Rotherham (0.7) and Wigan (0.5).
Port Vale’s climb looks too steep. The departure of Darren Moore has not tightened them defensively and they’re left with hope and a song.
Wigan are, as Tom Petty sang, Free Fallin’. The arrival of Gary Caldwell offers a pause for breath, but with 8th, 4th and 6th next, the runway is short. There is a strange sliver of hope in how poor their numbers have become. They were not always this bad. Regression alone should lift them slightly. The question is whether that lift is sufficient.
Are there signs of improvement at Blackpool despite results? It looks that way in the numbers. They won the manageable game in a difficult recent run and although Lincoln and Bolton away await, four of the Eight Watchers feature in their next ten. Their season-long attacking output has tracked below 1.00 xG per game, so modest improvement over the last five and ten is encouraging, even if it is not yet convincing. What impact will their 0-4 home defeat to Argyle have on confidence, buy-in and performances?
We covered marginal improvements for Doncaster and Rotherham last week so will not revisit them in detail. Both are trending upward per our tables.
Leyton Orient are eyebrow-raising. They were prolific earlier in the season and remain the highest scorers among the Eight Watchers across the full campaign. But they have scored more than once in only two of the last ten. The hot streak for finishing appears to have cooled and the underlying numbers are now more clearly represented in their form: P10 W2 D4 L4.
Northampton and Burton are steady in a less comforting way. Across all three tables, neither deviates meaningfully from their season average. They simply tend to concede better chances than they create. Not a model for success.
🚨 HUGE FOR BOTH KLAXON:
Burton vs Rotherham (tonight)
Rotherham vs Doncaster (Saturday)
Northampton vs Leyton Orient (Saturday)
🔗 League Two
Finally, in the fourth tier, six does not divide neatly into two. Let’s call those two The Immovable Objects.
Under 1.00 PPG over the last ten are Bristol Rovers (0.9), Newport (0.8), Crawley (0.7), Barrow (0.6) and Harrogate (0.5). Shrewsbury sit alone at exactly 1.00.
None are collecting points consistently, so the opportunity exists for one to surge clear. Realistically though, Harrogate and Newport may require help from above rather than relying solely on their own momentum.
Season-long xG Ratio places them 23rd and 22nd in the division (Cheltenham are actually bottom). Newport have dipped below their average in recent weeks and have lost five straight away games. At home they are W2 D2 L1 with an xG Ratio of 50 percent, averaging 1.10 xG for and 1.10 xGA. Hey, that looks like a bit of a route out? (And yes: we’re looking at adding Home/Away tables for next season).
Harrogate’s slight five-game uptick reflects a win over Cambridge and a draw with Chesterfield. They look marginally sturdier defensively. Given their inability to create and score on a consistent basis, that’s their route. For both clubs, those marginal gains could be enough if those above falter.
Despite beating Swindon impressively, Shrewsbury’s underlying numbers remain poor. They average 0.66 xG over five games, 0.74 over ten and 0.86 across the season.
Barrow may be the side most at risk. Their games are open (they average 2.5+ xG total per 90) and half of their remaining fixtures are against top-half teams chasing the play-offs. Dino Maamria’s in-tray is simple: tighten up, battle hard.
Steve Evans has added quality to Bristol Rovers but their season average xGA of 1.46 has not shifted meaningfully. Crawley, currently 23rd, face an unforgiving next six including 5th, 8th, 16th, 3rd, 12th, 11th.
If results above them wobble, one of the Immovable Objects could build momentum of their own. Newport’s home form in particular should concern those immediately ahead for whom complacency could cost them a place in the professional football pyramid.
🚨 HUGE FOR BOTH KLAXON:
Barrow vs Harrogate (tonight)
That Northampton game is doing a lot of heavy lifting for us I think!
Let’s get Wigan to go down and have a summer holiday , that’s the plan