Why can’t Boro turn dominance into wins? Can anyone catch Bromley? Who wants 6th in League One?
Our xG form tables have been updated. Go take a look!
Well, hello.
Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇
Words: Sam Parry
The top lines from today’s update reflect how, at a time when the only thing that matters is points, EFL teams are finding ever more intriguing ways to collect, or drop them.
Championship
#1 Poor Old Boro
If you’re going through Hellberg, keep going.
That would seem sensible advice given the ridiculous numbers Boro are posting right now. Their xGD over the last 5 games is a whopping 1.68 per 90, their xG is over 2.50, their xGA under 1.00 and their results? Considering their dominance in games, that’s the maddest of the lot: 3 points (D3 L2).
To understand that underperformance, we need to break the surface. Boro took 126 shots in those five games, 48 of them (~39%) were blocked, ~25% came from outside the box, ~20% were on target, and 4 (or 1 in 31 shots) were goals.
The tip of—or perhaps for—the Hellberg? His side might benefit from a touch more patience in front of goal. To put it in cricketing terms, it feels like they’re suffering a bit of scoreboard pressure and, maybe, trying too hard to force the issue.
#2 Relegation battlers look good in the 5-game tables
Oh, hello there, West Brom, Leicester and Oxford.
Yes, the teams in 23rd, 22nd and 20th have put in a decent shift over their clutch of fixtures. Points-wise, Foxes have 6 from 5, Yellows have 6 from 5, Baggies have 9 from 5. And clearly West Brom are the standout over the longer term.
What’s interesting is that these 5 games represent a clear spike for both Leicester (a big improvement in their xGA) and Oxford (a big improvement in their xG). They’ll need to sustain something like this over the final five games. And blow me down, what an opportunity for both to make ground this weekend: West Brom (20th) play Millwall (4th) and Portsmouth (21st) play Boro (3rd).
League One
#3 You climbed on the ladder, and you know how it feels…
#4 Play-off contenders
It would be an understatement to suggest there are plenty of permutations left in the League One play-off race. Suffice it to say that one of five teams could be in 6th come the end of the weekend (and one of them is Stockport, who could drop a place with a GD swing, and one of them isn’t Luton, who are competing in the Hatters Derby at Wembley in Sunday’s Football League Trophy Final).
The teams I’d like to flag today for all the wrong reasons are Reading and Huddersfield, who, over 5- and 10-game form guides, are floating around the 45% mark for xG share. Over 10, the Royals are travelling at 1.50 PPG and the Terriers at 1.20 PPG. Both look vulnerable in the hunt for the 6th.
On the other side of that coin are Stevenage and Argyle. The form teams after Lincoln per points and underlying numbers. The former has more road to run on, but the way is cobbled with Bolton, Bradford and Lincoln back-to-back-to-back. The latter has less road but a smoother path, although a Devon derby this weekend could be a bump.
If neither travel well, who’s to say Luton, with 13 points from their last 5 games (W4 D1) won’t provide a late dash.
League Two
#5 Is the League Two leaders’ lead too big?
The Ravens haven’t left the tower just yet. One last flap (by which I mean a win) and the Woodman wings should carry Bromley into League One. As Champions? Probs.
It’s funny that they’ve found themselves in the most commanding position of the season off the back of their most difficult spell. With Michael Cheek out injured and their attacking game not quite so sparkling, Bromley’s defence has kept them in games, and then they’ve found just enough to win. Let the record show that despite a declining share of xG, Andy Woodman’s side have INCREASED THE GAP on 2nd, 3rd, and 4th over the last ten, going at a rate of 1.90 PPG. Mark of Champions?
The 7-point lead is surely too big to catch. But with MK Dons, Cambridge and Salford back-to-back-to-back, the fixtures are configured in such a way that this could get interesting.
#6 Tranmere are like Owls
And finally, the Owls serve as an example of what happens when a team is so significantly short of quality that they genuinely cannot compete to stay in the division. One metric that captures Wednesday’s on-pitch issues is xG share, which has dipped below 30% all season.
We’re now at a stage where Tranmere in League Two are playing at a level that reflects a side that simply cannot compete at that level. Let’s face it. That’s been going on longer than the 10-game window in our form tables - they’re averaging 0.50 PPG over their last 20 games. If the slide continues, do they already have enough points on the board? It’s going to be very, very tight.
