The Pinsticker's Guide to the League Two Promotion Run-in
All of the details you need to know about the runners and riders for League Two's top seven places
This is the final instalment of The Pinsticker’s Guide to the EFL Promotion Run-in. If you missed the Championship and League One guides you can find them here (though they are, of course, one or two weeks out of date).
Now we turn to League Two, where the promotion race tends to run on slightly different historical benchmarks. Still, the aim is the same: to flag the form, fixtures and frailties of the promotion contenders and reframe the table around what each team still needs to do.
Using points per game, xG performance, remaining fixtures and opponent strength, we’ve mapped out the pace required for each side to hit those targets. And with all that data in hand, we’ve also taken the liberty of offering our own points projection — and a final league table forecast.
Here’s how the table looks right now. (Spoiler, we have it slightly different).
How to read this:
FORM 📈 — Where the team is right now
Season PPG (points per game), as well as separate home and away PPG, shows the team’s overall pace; Last 10 PPG shows current momentum; and the xG trend (‘Season xG Share → 10-game’) hints at whether performances are improving or dipping.
RUN-IN 🗓️ — How tough the finish looks
Games remaining, home vs away split, and the average PPG of remaining opponents (home or away, depending on where the fixture will take place) show whether the schedule is kind or brutal compared with the rest of the league.
TARGETS 🎯 — The race from here
The key numbers are the PPG needed from now to hit two benchmarks: 75 points for play-offs, and 85 points for automatic promotion.
PROJECTION 🎯 — The forecast explained
This isn’t just current PPG carried forward – it’s a weighted forecast blending season form, recent form, home vs away form, underlying xG performance and fixture difficulty, combined to estimate the club’s likeliest final points total if current trends continue. N.B. It’s a bit of fun, not an exhaustive prediction.
What’s that? The league leaders have dipped just below the two-points-per-game mark after winning only once in their last five matches?!
It’s true. But the broader picture still looks extremely strong: Bromley remain unbeaten since November 29th, have won more games than anyone else in the division and lost the fewest. With a seven-point cushion to fourth-placed Swindon and three automatic promotion spots available, the Ravens look well placed to get over the line. Their remaining fixtures are also comparatively kind compared with those around them.
FORM 📈
Season PPG: 1.97
Home PPG: 2.11
Away PPG: 1.82
Last 10 PPG: 1.80
Season xG Share → 10-game: 56% → 53%
RUN-IN 🗓️
Games remaining: 11 (5H / 6A)
Opponent strength: 1.28 avg PPG
Fixtures: easier than 83% of the league
TARGETS 🎯
0.55 PPG to reach 75
1.45 PPG to reach 85
PROJECTION 🔮 (Current position - 1st)
1st — 91.8 points (2.07 PPG required)
🚩 Fixture Flag: On paper, Bromley have the easiest fixtures of anyone above the bottom six. Ending their campaign against MK Dons, Cambridge, Salford and Walsall might test their title credentials, but by then it could be a victory lap.
Since November 29th, the best points-per-game return in the division actually belongs to Cambridge United, who have taken 38 points from 18 matches at a rate of 2.24 PPG. On pure form, that should make them the strongest challengers to Bromley. Our projections, however, are slightly more cautious, largely because of the difficulty of their run-in.
FORM 📈
Season PPG: 1.88
Home PPG: 2.24
Away PPG: 1.53
Last 10 PPG: 2.30
Season xG Share → 10-game: 57% → 60%
RUN-IN 🗓️
Games remaining: 12 (6H / 6A)
Opponent strength: 1.52 avg PPG
Fixtures: harder than 92% of the league
TARGETS 🎯
0.92 PPG to reach 75
1.75 PPG to reach 85
PROJECTION 🔮 (Current position - 2nd)
2nd — 88.2 points (2.01 PPG required)
🚩 Fixture Flag: In terms of opponents’ PPG, Cambridge have the biggest jump from whom they’ve faced to who comes next. From 17th March-6th April, they’ll take on 5 fellow promotion chasers and then Cheltenham in the space of just three weeks, with Notts County and Bromley to follow immediately afterwards. Gruelling.
Our projection has MK Dons collecting the most points from now until the end of the season, but still only just sneaking into the automatic places. The spreadsheet’s “3rd place” outcome isn’t really about quality. It’s about what their record suggests is sustainable. Of course, records are there to be broken, and it would not be a huge surprise if Paul Warne’s side shifted into a higher gear heading into the final stretch.
FORM 📈
Season PPG: 1.82
Home PPG: 1.88
Away PPG: 1.76
Last 10 PPG: 2.20
Season xG Share → 10-game: 60% → 71%
RUN-IN 🗓️
Games remaining: 12 (6H / 6A)
Opponent strength: 1.45 avg PPG
Fixtures: harder than 75% of the league
TARGETS 🎯
1.08 PPG to reach 75
1.92 PPG to reach 85
PROJECTION 🔮 (Current position - 3rd)
3rd — 87.8 points (2.15 PPG required)
🚩 Fixture Flag: MK average 2.4 PPG against teams currently in the bottom half and 1.2 against the top half, having failed to win away at anyone above 11th. Trips to Swindon, Crewe and Salford will be significant, then.
Points on the board are always valuable at this stage of the season and it should be enough for the top 7. What makes us think the Robins are more likely play-off contenders than automatic challengers is the slight drop-off since the turn of the year. Their PPG is down, their xG share has slipped, and only one other top-half side — Salford — has lost more games this season.
