Who's eating at Not The Top Table? #008
Succour for Saints. Trend-bucker for Stevenage. Pucker up for Cardiff (1st) vs Lincoln (2nd).
Well, hello.
Our xG form guides for the EFL have been updated 👇
I spy, with my little eye, something beginning with “Cardiff v Lincoln”…
Words: Sam Parry
🔗 Championship
🔴 EATING: Southampton
By Eckert! Saints have taken an unholy bite out of the xG total over their last 5 games.
They’ve won four and drawn one in that time against Watford (1-0), Leicester (4-3), Charlton (1-1), QPR (5-0) and Sheffield Wednesday (3-1). A kind set of fixtures?
Yes, rather kind. But the 61.8% xG ratio over 10 games is also a small but not insignificant improvement on their season-long numbers (58.0%), which are themselves the fourth-best in the division. The next great hope for a 6th-place finish is primed and ready.
⚖️ HUNGRY (FOR JUSTICE): Portsmouth
With a league-best xG ratio over the last 10 games (68%) underpinned by superlative defensive numbers (0.68 xGA per 90), poor old Pompey might’ve expected better than a 14-point return from their last 10 fixtures.
In their previous two home games, they’ve lost by a single goal while posting an xG of 2.37 vs 1.46 against Sheffield United (0-1) and 1.05 vs 0.34 against Hull (0-1).
Still, the performances are miles clear of those teams beneath them, as is the 1.40 PPG over their last 10. The pomp is there – is the survival ceremony a formality?
🚜 HOW GOOD IS WHEELY GOOD?: Ipswich
The wheels are very much ratcheted onto the Tractor Boys’ machine. Kieran McKenna’s side are ploughing through the Championship field at a rate of 2.00+ PPG over 5-game and 10-game samples.
Funny, though, that recent results are trending above their season average (1.82 PPG), while performances (xG) are trending below. In four of their last five matches, Ipswich have given up chances to the opposition amounting to 1.00+ xG. Might there be a poorer points yield to come?
🔗 League One
📈 EATING: Stevenage
It may appear a meagre morsel, but Stevenage are biting back after a period of indifferent results and fairly bad underlying numbers.
They were never the league’s big chance creators, so you have to hand it to Alex Revell for mid-season problem solving. His side have an average xG per 90 of 0.97 over the course of the season, but over 10 games it’s 1.26, and over 5 it’s 1.44.
🆚 Head of the table: Cardiff (1st) v Lincoln (2nd)
Synchronise watches. Cardiff vs Lincoln is happening at 12:30pm on Saturday. The biggest game of the season so far? It could be.
These two (mostly) unstoppable stars have been hurtling through the campaign at a meteoric rate. That said, if you put your eye to the telescope – or, in our case, the microscope – then it’s clear to see that one ascent has begun to move quicker.
Over five games, both clubs are edging toward xG totals of 3.00 per 90, but as you can see above, Lincoln’s share of the xG is more than 20% higher than Cardiff’s. Teams are scoring freely, but the Imps are giving up very little. The results of those games?
Lincoln City: W 4, D 1, L 0, GF 15, GA 2, Pts 13
Cardiff City: W 4, D 0, L 1, GF 16, GA 7, Pts 12
How about over 10 games?
Both sides are wrestling for a similar xG total. But once again, Michael Skubala’s side show a clear point of difference in the number of chances they give away: very few. And that’s shown a little more starkly in results/goals over the last 10.
Lincoln City: W 8, D 2, L 0, GF 28, GA 7, Pts 26
Cardiff City: W 6, D 3, L 1, GF 26, GA 12, Pts 21
You could barely fit a rizla between the pair’s season-long underlying numbers, but seasons don’t move at a single pace. We are where we are. And if there’s one through-line that should be heeded ahead of this tantalising tie, it would have to be Cardiff’s consistent record of giving up chances to their opponents at a greater rate than Lincoln, all season long.
Maybe that’s why our supercomputer recently predicted Lincoln to win the league…
🔗 League Two
⏫ EATING: Fleetwood
After Pete Wild’s departure, Matt Lawlor was handed the Fleetwood reins until the end of the season. With 11 points from seven games (W3 D2 L2), we’re starting to see a bit more of The Law – but what about the order?
In their last five games, Fleetwood have an xGA per 90 of 0.65, which is almost half that of their season-long xGA of 1.28. Positive signs – although if I were up in front of the judge as an expert witness, I would have to point out that fixtures against the languishing pair of Newport (0-0) and Barrow (3-2) are making it all a bit noisy, so help me Cod.
Speaking of which…
🔻HUNGRY: Fail fast at the bottom
Per our comparison tables, there isn’t a huge sign of improvement about the bottom two teams, Harrogate and Newport. If they are to pull off an escape, it will probably have less to do with their improvements and more to do with those around them failing and falling faster.
While Accrington have enough points on the board to start dusting off their beach towels, Crawley and Tranmere are showing signs that the floor is coming up to meet them.